Dr. Raed Abu Badawiya: The demands to investigate Biden and the symbols of his administration do not have any actual legal effect, but rather draw attention to the possibility of investigating them in the future

Noman Abed: Trump will not allow Biden to be prosecuted because it is a dangerous precedent that may be used against him or other presidents in the future

Dr. Hussein Al-Deek: The Trump administration, despite the political hostility with Biden, will not abandon him, but will continue to fight the court and impose sanctions on it

Dr. Hassan Ayoub: Talking about the possibility of investigating or issuing international arrest warrants is a great political and symbolic pressure on the US administration

Sulaiman Basharat: Trump will try to exploit the legal moves against Biden as a pressure card against the Democrats, but he will not allow them to develop into a trial

Dr. Saad Nimr: Legal moves, even if they do not lead to an immediate investigation, represent an important warning to major countries that the crimes committed will not go unpunished.

The call by the organization "Democracy for the Arab World Now" for the International Criminal Court to investigate former US President Joe Biden and senior officials of his administration, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, against the backdrop of the genocidal war in the Gaza Strip, raises controversy over the possibility of holding them accountable in the future as war criminals.

In separate interviews with “I,” writers, political analysts, specialists, and university professors believe that these demands, although they do not have a direct legal effect, highlight Washington’s responsibility in enabling Israel to commit war crimes against the Palestinians.

They assert that providing the ICC prosecutor with legal information could help push the court to continue investigations into the situation in Palestine, increasing political pressure on the US administration.

While analysts, experts, and university professors rule out the possibility of prosecuting Biden or other American officials, these moves carry important symbolic and political implications, as they enhance efforts to hold Israel and its allies accountable before international public opinion.

While Republicans are attacking Biden's policies, writers, analysts, specialists, and university professors believe that Republicans do not support investigations into the Biden administration, fearing that they will lead to similar trials that may affect Republican officials in the future, including Trump.

Attention from the International Criminal Court

Dr. Raed Abu Badawi, Professor of International Law and International Relations at the Arab American University, confirms that the legal demands to investigate former US President Joe Biden, his Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, regarding their military support for Israel during the war on Gaza, do not have any real legal effect, but rather fall within the framework of drawing the attention of the International Criminal Court to the possibility of investigating them in the future.

Abu Badawiya explains that the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, announced on 17 November 2023 his readiness to receive any information related to the investigation he is conducting into the situation in Palestine, which opens the door for human rights organizations and individuals to submit relevant information, without this meaning filing official complaints against specific American figures, because the ones who file official complaints are the states.

Abu Badawiya stresses that the International Criminal Court only accepts official investigation requests from its member states, the UN Security Council, or the Prosecutor himself based on his own investigations. Therefore, the information provided by human rights organizations does not constitute an official investigation request, but may help guide the course of investigations.

Abu Badawiya points out that these legal claims in the United States will not lead to direct results, given that the American judiciary itself does not allow the trial of American citizens in foreign courts. The United States, as a dominant power, refuses to subject its officials or citizens to any international judiciary, while granting itself the right to pursue and arrest individuals outside its territory if they commit crimes against Americans.

Trump expected to escalate his attacks on the ICC

Abu Badawiya expects that US President Donald Trump will escalate his attack on the International Criminal Court, despite his political rivalry with Biden, as Trump's position does not stem from defending Biden, but rather from a principled American position that refuses to recognize the authority of the International Criminal Court over American officials.

Abu Badawiya believes that the United States has historically adopted a policy of protecting its officials and soldiers from any international trials, even in documented cases related to war crimes, as happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. Therefore, any legal action against American officials in relation to the war on Gaza will be met with strong opposition from various American political circles, whether Democratic or Republican.

Abu Badawiya believes that the United States bears direct responsibility for the crimes committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip, given its role in providing military support and full political cover to Israel.

Abu Badawiya explains that the International Court of Justice may be a more effective legal forum for holding the United States accountable, since it is concerned with resolving disputes between states, unlike the International Criminal Court, which tries individuals accused of international crimes.

But the most prominent challenge, according to Abu Badawiya, is the extent to which any country is prepared to file an official complaint against the United States before the International Court of Justice, given the political and economic pressure that Washington may exert against it.

Abu Badawiya asserts that human rights movements, despite their limited direct legal impact before the International Criminal Court, contribute to keeping the issue alive at the international level, which may increase political pressure on the US administration in the future.

The Biden administration is an actual partner in Israeli crimes

Writer, political analyst and international relations specialist, Noman Abed, explains that the previous US administration, headed by Joe Biden, bears direct responsibility for the genocide committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip, stressing that the United States is not just a political and military supporter of Israel, but an actual partner in these crimes.

Abed asserts that President Biden, his Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, his Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and the rest of the US administration, participated in various ways in supporting the Israeli aggression, whether through public statements that gave Israel full political cover, or by providing weapons and ammunition used by the occupation forces in their war on the Palestinians.

Abed points out that the Biden administration did not limit itself to military and financial support, but rather was directly involved in managing the war, as Biden visited Israel in the first days of the aggression, and Blinken repeated his visits to it, confirming each time the United States’ absolute commitment to supporting Israel.

Abed points out that Blinken played a pivotal role in justifying the Israeli aggression, both internationally and within the United States, as he sought to mislead public opinion by promoting the discourse of “Israel’s right to defend itself,” ignoring the crimes committed by Israel against the Palestinians.

Washington provided the occupation with a huge military airlift

Abed explains that Washington provided Israel with a huge military airlift, supplying it with bombs, missiles and military equipment that were directly used in bombing civilians in Gaza, pointing out the participation of American military experts in the Israeli operations rooms, which makes the United States a direct partner in planning and executing this aggression.

Abed points out that several international human rights organizations are seeking to push the International Criminal Court to investigate Biden, Blinken, and Austin on charges of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity, just as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior Israeli military leaders are being prosecuted.

Abed believes that the United States has worked to obstruct any international efforts to hold Israel accountable, whether by using its veto in the Security Council, or by pressuring its European allies to prevent any legal moves against Tel Aviv.

Abed points out that the US administration has not only supported Israel externally, but has also suppressed any opposing voices within the United States itself. The past few months have witnessed an escalation in targeting student movements in American universities, and punishing human rights institutions and organizations that have criticized US support for Israel, which reflects a stark contradiction between US rhetoric about democracy and human rights, and its practices on the ground.

Despite the political animosity between President Donald Trump and the current Democratic administration, Abed rules out that Trump or the Republicans will allow Biden to be prosecuted, as the reason is not to defend Biden, but rather because opening an international criminal investigation against a previous US administration would set a dangerous precedent that could be used in the future against Trump himself or any other US president.

Trump could be subject to investigations if he allows them

Abed points out that Trump, despite his strong criticism of Biden’s policies, has always shown strong hostility to the International Criminal Court, attacking it on several occasions, and that his statements during his presidency have always included incitement to war crimes and unconditional support for Israel, which makes him vulnerable to such investigations if they are allowed against Biden.

Abed believes that the aggressive policies pursued by the United States in supporting wars and genocide may lead to the erosion of its global standing.

Abed points out that human rights organizations inside and outside America have begun to sense the danger of this trend, as Washington is no longer only an internationally dominant power, but is now viewed as a state that practices international “bullying” and abandons the values of democracy and human rights that it claims to defend.

An unprecedented development, both symbolically and legally.

The writer and political analyst specializing in American affairs, Dr. Hussein Al-Deek, confirms that the demand of the Democracy for the Arab World Now organization, an American non-governmental human rights organization, for the International Criminal Court to investigate former US President Joe Biden, his Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and his Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, is an unprecedented development from both the symbolic and legal aspects.

Al-Deek explains that this claim is based on the Rome Statute of 1998, which represents the legal framework for the court, and which allows human rights organizations to submit legal information to the public prosecutor, who decides whether there is a legal basis to open a formal investigation.

Al-Deek asserts that the political and military support provided by the Biden administration to Israel during the aggression on Gaza, which included continuous military supplies, may fall within the jurisdiction of the court, especially since the Rome Statute stipulates that anyone who incites, assists or supports international crimes may be subject to investigation and accountability.

He points out that these claims raise legal and procedural questions about the extent to which US officials can be prosecuted, especially given that the United States has not joined the International Criminal Court, and the challenges associated with proving crimes and directly linking US support to crimes committed on the ground.

Despite the importance of this step, Al-Deek believes that the sanctions and pressures imposed by the United States on the International Criminal Court may hinder the investigation, noting that the administration of President Donald Trump in his first term imposed sanctions on the court during the era of former Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda, which led to the suspension of the investigation into American crimes in Afghanistan.

Al-Deek explains that since the court entered into force in 2002, it has discussed 42 cases, 39 of which were against African leaders and countries, which reinforces the belief that it targets weak countries and avoids prosecuting major powers such as the United States and Israel.

Washington will refuse any cooperation with the "International Criminal Court"

Al-Deek believes that Washington will refuse any cooperation with the International Criminal Court, based on the fact that the United States is not a member of the court, that the crimes did not occur on its territory, and that its forces did not directly participate in the alleged crimes.

Al-Deek asserts that the Trump administration, despite the political hostility with Biden, will not abandon the protection of the previous administration, but will continue to fight the court and impose sanctions on it, based on its principled position rejecting the work of the court.

Al-Deek believes that these demands, despite their symbolic importance, will not turn into an actual trial, due to the legal and political obstacles, in addition to the pressure that the United States may exert on the court to prevent the investigation from proceeding.

Al-Deek confirms that the court had previously received complaints about crimes committed by the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as complaints related to the Palestinian issue since 2021, but it had not made any real progress due to political pressure, which reflects the difficulties the court faces in dealing with major powers.

Al-Deek believes that this demand from the human rights organization regarding the investigation into the Biden administration will remain more symbolic and moral in nature than a practical legal step, stressing that the court, despite having the legal basis to consider the investigation, will face major challenges in moving forward with the investigation procedures or issuing arrest warrants against American officials.

Complications that prevent holding the US administration accountable

Professor of Political Science and specialist in American affairs, Dr. Hassan Ayoub, explains that there are major legal and political complications that prevent the US administration from being held accountable, whether before the US judiciary or the International Criminal Court, for its military support for Israel during the recent war on Gaza, and what may result from that in terms of suspicions of committing war crimes and genocide.

Ayoub points out that a legal precedent occurred last year in the state of California, when a lawsuit was filed aiming to compel the Biden administration to stop supplying Israel with weapons or providing any support to it in the UN Security Council, but the American judiciary rejected the case on the grounds that the court lacked jurisdiction, although the judge who heard the case directed clear criticism at the American administration, stressing that it should have refrained from contributing to what the International Court of Justice described as a clear suspicion of committing genocide in the Gaza Strip.

Ayoub points out that the US administration circumvents local laws to avoid restrictions on arms sales, specifically the so-called “Leahy Law,” which requires countries receiving military aid from the United States to abide by international law.

Ayoub explains that former US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is responsible for manipulating these laws, by exempting Israel from the application of the Leahy Law, which allows it to obtain military support without real legal restrictions.

Ayoub points out that this case, despite its legal dimension, also carries great political importance, as the parties currently demanding an investigation into the Biden administration are fully aware that the American establishment will never allow a former American president or American officials to be subject to an international investigation, but the mere fact that the case remains open before the International Criminal Court, and talk about the possibility of an investigation or issuing international arrest warrants, represents great political and symbolic pressure on the American administration.

He believes that the Republican Party, led by Trump, is exploiting these issues to undermine the “moral legitimacy” of the Democratic Party, by pointing out the contradictions in its foreign policies, especially with regard to human rights and military interventions.

Ayyoub points out that the decisions of the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice are not implemented automatically, but rather require continuous political and media pressure, and these international human rights organizations play a major role in keeping these issues alive, while Arab efforts are almost completely absent, allowing the American and Israeli administrations to bypass legal pressures without real consequences.

Regarding the possibility of this case leading to actual trials of American officials, Ayoub completely rules it out, pointing out that the American establishment, including the “deep state,” will never allow the creation of a legal precedent that might lead to the trial of high-ranking American officials in the future.

Ayub believes that the United States, which has fiercely fought any international investigations into war crimes committed by its soldiers and officers in Afghanistan, will take a tougher stance if it comes to prosecuting a former president or senior officials.

The investigation will not lead to arrest warrants.

Ayoub asserts that all that is happening now is merely a request for the International Criminal Court to open an investigation into the responsibility of Biden, Blinken and Austin for supporting Israel militarily, but this investigation, even if accepted, will not lead to arrest warrants. However, continuing to raise the issue at the legal level may cause long-term political damage to the Democratic Party, and may lead to a decline in the confidence of the American and international public in Biden’s foreign policies.

Ayoub sees this issue as reflecting the seriousness of the new trends of the US administration, which is moving towards more violence and disregard for international law, which could have disastrous effects on American democracy and global stability.

Genocide crimes will continue to haunt US officials

Writer and political analyst Suleiman Basharat asserts that the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip and the genocide it committed against defenceless civilians will continue to haunt all American officials who provided Israel with political cover, military support and legal justifications to launch this brutal aggression.

Basharat explains that the administration of former US President Joe Biden showed unprecedented impudence in its absolute support for the Israeli aggression, ignoring all the values and principles it claims to defend, which makes it directly responsible for the war crimes and serious violations that occurred in Gaza.

Basharat points out that these crimes will not be erased with the passage of time, but will remain a legal and moral issue that haunts American and Israeli leaders before the global conscience and international human rights institutions.

Basharat explains that the human rights movements to hold the Biden administration and the Israeli military and political leadership accountable are part of the responsibilities of international human rights institutions to protect humanitarian principles, noting that these movements are not the first and may not be the last, as he expects that the coming period will witness more pressure and legal demands against those responsible for the massacres committed in Gaza.

Basharat stresses that the absence of serious legal prosecution of these leaders will put international law and human justice to a real test, pointing out that the international community is at a crossroads: either to prove its commitment to the principles of human rights and international laws, or to remain hostage to the political interests of the major powers.

Basharat stresses that it is of utmost importance to issue official convictions against those responsible for these crimes, even if the penalties are not actually implemented, because the criminalization itself is a victory for human justice and a clear condemnation of American and Israeli criminality.

Basharat stresses that international law is based on the principle of cumulativeness, and that the crimes committed will not be subject to a statute of limitations, but will remain a legal threat that will pursue the leaders involved in them at any time.

He points out that the success of implementing the recent decisions of the International Criminal Court, which issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Minister of Defense Yoav Galant, depends on the existence of an international political will to implement them, warning that these decisions may remain mere documents in drawers unless they are enforced by the force of law.

Basharat points out that one of the main challenges facing these legal moves is the lack of political pressure necessary to implement judicial decisions against Israel and its allies, especially the United States, which has extensive influence within international institutions.

Major shake-up of the images of the United States and Israel

Basharat asserts that these legal moves have contributed to a major shake-up of the images of the United States and Israel on the international level, as it has become clear that the international community no longer accepts the American and Israeli narrative that promotes them as symbols of democracy and human rights.

Basharat believes that this exposure is an important transformation that must be built upon politically and in the media, because it confirms that the world no longer accepts the biased Western narrative towards Israel, and that there is a growing awareness of the truth of the crimes it is committing against the Palestinians.

Despite the political hostility between Republicans and Democrats, Basharat rules out that the administration of US President Donald Trump will allow any serious legal prosecutions against Biden and his administration.

Basharat explains that this is not because Trump is defending Biden, but because any investigation against Biden could open the door to holding other American presidents accountable, including Trump himself, who strongly supported Israel during his previous and current term in office, and made decisions that were completely biased towards the occupation.

Basharat asserts that successive US administrations have been and continue to be complicit in the crimes of the Israeli occupation, and therefore Trump will try to exploit these legal moves against Biden as a political pressure card in his battle against the Democrats, but he will not allow it to develop into an actual trial.

Opening the door to questioning America and other allied countries

Dr. Saad Nimr, a professor of political science at Birzeit University, confirms that the Dawn organization’s demand that the International Criminal Court investigate former US President Joe Biden and his Secretary of State Anthony Blinken regarding their indirect support for the Israeli occupation army during the war of extermination on the Gaza Strip, is of great importance, and may open the door to holding the United States and other allied countries accountable before the International Court.

Nimr explains that American support for Israel during the war on Gaza was not limited to delivering weapons and ammunition, but also included obstructing Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire through the use of the veto, which made Washington a partner in the crimes committed against the Palestinians.

Nimr points to American reports that the munitions provided by the United States to Israel were used extensively in bombing operations that caused thousands of civilian casualties.

Developments put Washington in a very sensitive position

Nimr points out that these developments put the United States in a very sensitive position, as this legal pressure could lead to future political and judicial repercussions, especially if an official investigation is opened into this matter.

Nimr explains that the International Criminal Court may also consider holding accountable other countries, such as Britain, France and Germany, that provided military or political support to Israel during the war.

Despite the importance of these demands, Nimr believes that the United States will seek to prevent any international investigation against its officials, noting that Washington has always adopted a hostile stance towards the International Criminal Court, as it has previously imposed sanctions on its judges and prevented them from entering its territory in the context of preventing any legal accountability against its military or political officials.

Nimr stresses that the Biden administration is not the only one that will face these challenges, but rather the administration of President Donald Trump will take a more stringent stance in confronting any international judicial move against American officials.

Nimer explains that Trump, who is known for his unconditional support for Israel, may fear that such a legal precedent would lead to the recall of figures in his administration.

Nimr asserts that the United States believes that its military and political leaders enjoy complete immunity from any international trial, a position that Israel adopts, but the International Criminal Court’s indictment of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Galant for committing war crimes and genocide proves that any official, regardless of his position, may be subject to international legal accountability.

Nimr stresses that Washington will intensify its pressure on the International Criminal Court to prevent the opening of any official investigation, expecting it to resort to imposing more sanctions or using its political and economic influence to protect its officials.

Nimr expects that the United States will continue to support Israel diplomatically and militarily to prevent any legal repercussions that may affect the future of relations between the two countries.

Nimr stresses that these legal moves, even if they do not lead to an immediate investigation, represent an important warning to major powers that crimes committed during wars will not go unpunished, and that the International Criminal Court may in the future become an arena for holding even the most powerful countries accountable, including the United States and its allies.