Dr. Saeed Shaheen: Netanyahu uses political blackmail to extract concessions from the resistance after failing to achieve the war’s goals through force

Muhammad Joda: The Israeli position currently seems more like a "negotiating maneuver" than a final decision to blow up the exchange deal

Hani Abu Al-Sabaa: The current delay will not last long and it is expected that the mediators will succeed in overcoming it, like many obstacles in the past.

Dr. Aql Salah: Netanyahu is trying to obstruct the second phase of the deal or freeze it until new facts are created that serve his political narrative

Samah Khalifa: Netanyahu is unable to obstruct the deal for a long time because that will ignite the anger of the Israeli street, especially the families of the detainees

Firas Yaghi: Netanyahu is not necessarily seeking to completely thwart the deal, but he is trying to avoid the second stage except by achieving the war’s goals

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to procrastinate in implementing the terms of the first phase of the exchange deal, the latest of which was postponing the release of Palestinian prisoners in the seventh batch of the deal, amid accusations that he is using political blackmail to evade the agreement’s requirements, and thus show its failure.

In separate interviews with “I,” writers, analysts, specialists, and university professors believe that the delay in implementing the deal reflects Netanyahu’s attempts to impose new conditions that serve his political interests, especially after his failure to achieve military goals in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli government, led by Netanyahu, seeks to exploit the time factor to rearrange its cards, while focusing on the media impact on Israeli society of scenes of the release of Israeli prisoners in the Gaza Strip.

Writers, analysts, specialists and university professors confirm that the role played by international mediators remains crucial in breaking the current deadlock, amid warnings that continued procrastination by the occupation could lead to the collapse of the deal.

They point out that with the increase in international pressure, it seems that the second phase of the deal may witness a fierce political battle, in light of Israel's efforts to redraw the rules of negotiations in its favor.

Netanyahu government backtracks on commitments

Dr. Saeed Shaheen, Professor of Political Media at Hebron University, believes that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is using a policy of political blackmail to extract the greatest possible concessions from the Palestinian resistance, after he failed to achieve the goals of the war on the Gaza Strip through military force.

Shaheen explains that Benjamin Netanyahu's government is backtracking on its commitments, especially with regard to the humanitarian protocol, noting that Israel is deliberately using Palestinian civilians as a means of pressure on Hamas, which has fulfilled all of its commitments in the current agreements.

Shaheen believes that the delay in handing over the seventh batch of Palestinian prisoners reflects Netanyahu and the extreme right’s annoyance with the scene presented by the resistance during the prisoner exchange operations. The appearance of resistance members in their organized military uniforms and with full equipment, in addition to the good treatment that the Israeli prisoners receive, refutes the Israeli narrative that describes the resistance as terrorism, and reinforces the resistance’s narrative before the world.

A scene that threatens the Israeli discourse

Shaheen explains that this scene threatens the Israeli discourse, which prompts the right-wing political level in Israel to try to disrupt the prisoner exchange process and delay the implementation of the agreement.

With growing skepticism about the continuation of the ceasefire, and repeated threats from the Israeli side to resume the war and turn Gaza into “hell,” a term used by the Israeli right, inspired by statements by US President Donald Trump, Shaheen believes that there are no real indications that the fighting could resume with the same intensity as it was before the truce.

He points to statements by US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, who confirmed that the second phase of the deal could lead to a permanent ceasefire.

Shaheen points to the change in Trump's position on the issue of displacing the population of Gaza, which reflects increasing international pressure on Israel to find alternative political solutions.

Imposing new facts on the ground

Shaheen explains that these developments come within the framework of Israel's attempt to pressure the resistance to force it to make concessions in the post-war phase, especially with regard to managing the Gaza Strip and rebuilding it without involving Hamas.

He stresses that Israel's procrastination in implementing the agreements aims to impose new facts on the ground that serve its political interests, at a time when international and regional pressure is mounting on Netanyahu's government to abide by the terms of the concluded agreements.

Intertwined political and security dimensions

Writer and political analyst Muhammad Joda believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s delay in releasing the seventh batch of Palestinian prisoners at the last minute is not a final decision to destroy the deal, but rather carries intertwined political and security dimensions that reflect the complexities of the Israeli domestic scene, especially in light of the pressures he is facing from various parties.

Jodeh explains that there are several reasons that may have prompted Netanyahu to take this step, most notably an attempt to pressure Hamas and blackmail it politically to obtain additional concessions, whether with regard to the list of prisoners to be released or the terms of a future truce.

Netanyahu faces intense pressure from far-right

Jodeh points out that Netanyahu is facing great pressure from the extreme Israeli right and the families of the captive soldiers, who oppose making “free concessions” to Hamas, which may push him to maneuver to strengthen his position before them, and prove that he does not easily submit to agreements that may be interpreted as a victory for the Palestinian movement.

Jodeh points out that the delay may be linked to Israel's attempt to improve the terms of the deal in the second phase, especially with regard to the release of Israeli soldiers held captive by the resistance, or amending the deal's criteria in its favor by imposing more stringent terms.

Among other possibilities raised by Jodeh is that Netanyahu may be seeking to buy time to complete military operations on the ground, or to rearrange his political cards internally and externally, especially with the tensions within his government and the pressures exerted by the Israeli opposition.

Jodeh points out that Netanyahu may also be testing the reactions of Hamas and international mediators, to see how willing they are to make new concessions, in light of the increasing pressure from the international community to end the war and complete the deal.

Negotiating maneuver and pressure card

Joudeh believes that the Israeli position currently appears to be more of a “negotiating maneuver” than a final decision to blow up the deal, as Netanyahu is threatening to freeze the release of prisoners as a pressure card, but in the end he may be forced to abide by the agreement under the pressure of the Americans, Qataris and Egyptians.

Joudeh warns that Netanyahu may seek to obstruct the transition to the second phase of the deal, especially if it includes the release of Palestinian prisoners with long sentences or a final cessation of the war and a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, which is opposed by some army leaders who believe that continuing the fighting serves Israeli interests more than completing the deal.

Joudeh did not rule out that Netanyahu would succumb to pressure from the extreme right in his government, which could lead to obstructing the full implementation of the deal and resuming military operations against the Gaza Strip, a scenario that could lead to a new escalation that would prolong the war and exacerbate the security situation in the region.

Continued manipulation may push Hamas to reconsider the deal

Joudeh expects international pressure on Netanyahu to release the seventh batch and resume implementation of the agreement to continue, especially with the intervention of mediators to try to break the deadlock. However, at the same time, he did not rule out that continued Israeli procrastination could lead to an escalating response by the Palestinian resistance, whether in Gaza or the West Bank.

Joda points out that continued Israeli manipulation may push Hamas to reconsider the deal or threaten to halt its implementation, warning that the most dangerous scenario is the complete collapse of the agreement, which means the return of fighting at a more violent pace, and perhaps the opening of new fronts in the Middle East.

Hebrew media incitement

The writer and political analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, Hani Abu Al-Sabaa, explains that the Hebrew media has escalated its protests since Saturday morning against what it described as “manifestations of surrender” in the Gaza Strip, in reference to scenes of the release of Israeli prisoners. The Hebrew media considered these displays to represent “an insult and humiliation to the prisoners,” and that they also constitute, from their point of view, “playing with the feelings of their families,” which prompted it to incite against these manifestations and demand that they be stopped immediately.

Abu Al-Sabaa points out that this media incitement put additional pressure on the Israeli government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, which prompted it to delay the release of Palestinian prisoners as part of the seventh batch of the first phase of the exchange deal.

Abu Al-Sabaa believes that this decision reflects the extent to which the Israeli government is affected by internal reactions and its attempt to identify with the voices calling for stopping any scene that might be interpreted as a “victory for the Palestinian resistance.”

Reasons that prompted the occupation government to procrastinate

Abu Al-Sabaa points out that many observers had previously expected that the Israeli government would resort to procrastination and delay, for several reasons, including the official protest against what Israel considers to be “forcing” the released prisoners to behave in certain ways in front of the crowds, in reference to scenes of them leaving Gaza.

But the most important reason, according to Abu al-Saba’, which the Israeli government has not explicitly announced, is that the last batch of Palestinian prisoners scheduled to be released includes a number of those sentenced to long terms, such as life imprisonment, which makes them, from the occupation’s point of view, “symbols of resistance” whose release could contribute to strengthening the morale and organisation within the ranks of the resistance, in addition to their influence on future generations.

Regarding the future of the deal, Abu Al-Sabaa believes that the current delay will not last long, as it is expected that the mediators will succeed in overcoming it, just as many obstacles were overcome in the previous stages.

Negotiations in the next stage will be more complicated.

But Abu Al-Sabaa warns that the negotiations in the next stage will be more complicated and difficult, especially with the escalation of pressure on the Israeli government from the extreme right, which is demanding the continuation of the war and the elimination of the resistance in Gaza, especially after the emergence of field commanders who the Israeli army had previously announced their assassination.

He points out that there are factors preventing Israel from returning to war completely, including the position of the US administration, which seeks to end the war, according to what US President Donald Trump announced, in addition to proposing alternative options to resolve the conflict, such as forced displacement, whether voluntary or under military pressure, or imposing a new Palestinian government that is “acceptable” to the United States and Israel.

Abu Al-Sabaa points out that the second phase of the deal will witness attempts by each party to force the other to respect the agreements, after the violations that occurred during the first phase.

The resistance is capable of forcing Israel to return to negotiations

Abu Al-Sabaa believes that the resistance, with its pressure cards, is capable of forcing Israel to return to the negotiating table, as it still has about 60 Israeli prisoners, most of them military, including prominent officers, most notably Major General Asaf, commander of the Gaza Brigade, who is estimated to still be alive.

Abu Al-Sabaa believes that the internal Israeli situation is putting great pressure on Netanyahu's government to accelerate its engagement in the second phase negotiations, but he stresses the need for caution because "Israel has been known for its treachery throughout history, and has not changed its nature until now."

The occupation seeks to achieve several goals through its procrastination

Writer and political researcher Dr. Aql Salah believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking, by delaying the release of the seventh batch of Palestinian prisoners, to achieve several political and security goals, most notably pressuring mediators to force Hamas to limit the emotional scenes during the process of handing over Israeli prisoners, which caused widespread controversy within Israel.

Salah explains that Netanyahu is trying to divert attention from his government’s failure to manage the war on Gaza, especially after the spread of pictures of coffins carrying the bodies of Israeli soldiers, trying to appear as a strong leader who controls the process of releasing the hostages, and to establish the idea that military pressure is the solution, not negotiations.

Netanyahu, according to Salah, also seeks to present himself as a “national hero” who will save Israel and its hostages, and clear himself of accusations of mismanagement of the war and failure to protect Israeli settlements adjacent to the Gaza Strip.

Salah explains that Netanyahu is also trying to obstruct or freeze the second phase of the deal, until new facts are created that serve his political narrative and cover up the scenes of the release of the Israeli hostages, which hold him responsible for their remaining in Gaza for such a long time.

Netanyahu seeks to lay new foundations for future prisoner exchange

Salah points out that Netanyahu seeks to establish new foundations for prisoner exchange in the future, so that it does not affect Israeli society, nor enhance the Palestinians’ sense of victory, especially with regard to the release of prisoners sentenced to life and long sentences.

Salah points out that Netanyahu faces an internal challenge in the need to satisfy his far-right government, especially Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and the Religious Zionism Party, in order to maintain the cohesion of his government coalition, which has become threatened with the escalation of internal disputes over the management of the war and the deal.

Salah explains that Netanyahu seeks to reduce his government's losses by reducing the number of Palestinian prisoners being released, in an attempt to break the rules imposed by Hamas in the deal, and to reduce the amount of criticism he faces from the Israeli opposition.

1. Accustoming mediators and Hamas to future violations

Salah points out that Netanyahu is trying to accustom the mediators and Hamas to future violations, so that these violations become normal in the future, which gives him more room to maneuver in any upcoming rounds of negotiations.

Salah confirms that Netanyahu is trying to delay the implementation of the second phase of the deal in order to extend the first phase, because moving to the second phase means making greater concessions, which could threaten the stability of his government.

It is likely that the mediators will pressure Netanyahu in the coming hours to complete the implementation of the agreement, but he did not rule out that Hamas will respond to Netanyahu's procrastination by delaying the delivery of the bodies of the Israeli soldiers next Thursday, in a protest move against the deliberate Israeli obstruction.

Salah asserts that Netanyahu faces a major dilemma, as he no longer has a choice but to continue implementing the deal, especially in light of the increasing Israeli protests demanding the return of the hostages, in addition to polls that showed broad support for continuing the deal, even if Hamas remains in power. In addition, the increasing American pressure on Israel to conclude the deal may force Netanyahu to move forward with implementing it, despite his attempts to obstruct it.

Israel operates on the principle of "action and counteraction."

Writer and political analyst Samah Khalifa asserts that Israel operates according to the principle of “action and counteraction,” as it always seeks to thwart any Palestinian gains, even in the most humanitarian moments.

Khalifa explains that while Hamas showed good treatment of Israeli prisoners, the occupation did not hesitate to do the exact opposite by torturing Palestinian prisoners until the last moment of their release, in addition to its attempts to disrupt the exchange deal and delay the release of Palestinian prisoners, with the aim of depriving their families of the joy of welcoming them.

Khalifa points out that the Israeli occupation, from 1948 until Saturday, February 22, has not stopped using all possible means to subjugate the Palestinians, whether through killing, displacement, demolishing homes, or distorting the facts. However, what happened during the current deal has proven once again the failure of these policies, especially after Hamas succeeded in managing the prisoners’ file in a way that exposed the falsehood of Israeli propaganda.

The Israeli media tried to promote a distorted image of the resistance.

Khalifa points out that the Israeli media, which dominates global media platforms, has tried over the past months to promote a distorted image of the Palestinian resistance, claiming that Hamas practices torture and killing against Israeli prisoners. However, the great irony occurred when the photos and video clips showed one of the released Israeli prisoners expressing his gratitude to Hamas by kissing the heads of two of its leaders, in a moment that seemed shocking to the Israeli media, which was unable to distort or manipulate it.

Khalifa explains that this moment was the “straw that broke the camel’s back,” as it showed the Israeli prisoner in a state of overwhelming joy and appreciation for the good treatment he had been treated during his detention, which undermined the occupation’s claims that Israeli prisoners were suffering from torture.

Khalifa points out that the occupation army took punitive steps against the Palestinian prisoners, including an attempt to impose a counter-propaganda protocol by forcing the Palestinian prisoners to wear clothes that read “We will not forget and we will not forgive” upon their release, in addition to broadcasting threatening messages by lighting up the houses surrounding Ofer Prison with phrases such as “Our eyes are on you,” in an attempt to keep up with the statements of one of the Hamas leaders who said that “Our eyes are on Al-Aqsa, and the coming flood will come from the heart of Al-Aqsa.”

Khalifa points out that what increased the Israeli embarrassment were the scenes broadcast by Hamas media of one of the Israeli prisoners confessing in front of the cameras, saying: “The age of the olive tree is older than the age of my state,” a statement that carries an implicit admission of the illegitimacy of the Israeli occupation, and that they are “a people who have intruded on this land,” as he described it.

According to Khalifa, these scenes and their implications prompted Israel to postpone the handover of Palestinian prisoners, in an attempt to bargain with Hamas to stop this media coverage that exposed the falsity of its claims.

Khalifa believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unable to cancel the deal or even delay it for a long time, given that any attempt on his part to obstruct the release of Israeli prisoners will ignite the anger of the Israeli street, especially the families of the prisoners who are eager to see their sons out of captivity.

"A political blow"

Khalifa points out that Hamas was well aware that Netanyahu might try to manipulate the deal, and so it resorted to a strong pressure card, as it broadcast video clips of two other Israeli prisoners who had not yet been released, appearing as they appealed to the Israeli people to take to the streets and pressure Netanyahu's government to complete the deal.

She notes that the move was a “political blow,” because seeing Israelis with their children in captivity begging for release while the Israeli government blocks the deal could prompt them to escalate protests against Netanyahu.

Khalifa believes that Hamas will not back down from showing these scenes that show its humanitarian nature and expose the falsehood of the Israeli media. Moreover, the prisoner handover ceremony will remain part of the battle of awareness, which the occupation seems to be losing in the face of the reality imposed by the resistance.

Unprecedented Israeli internal pressures

Writer and political analyst Firas Yaghi confirms that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing unprecedented internal pressures that have prompted him to postpone the implementation of the seventh batch of the prisoner exchange deal with Hamas.

Yaghi explains that the reasons for the postponement are due to Netanyahu's fears of the collapse of his government, especially in light of the internal tensions and deep divisions in the ruling coalition.

Yaghi points out that Netanyahu was greatly humiliated inside Israel after his failure to achieve a clear victory in the Gaza Strip, which prompted him to try to restore his prestige by delaying the release of Palestinian prisoners. His decision is also in line with the principle of “reciprocity,” referring to the 20-hour delay in handing over Bibas’ body, which prompted Netanyahu to use a similar tactic by delaying the release of Palestinian prisoners.

Disagreements within the occupation government

Yaghi points out that the differences within the Israeli government were clearly evident during the recent security and political meetings. While the heads of the Shin Bet and Mossad recommended moving forward with implementing the deal, another meeting that included hardline political figures such as Smotrich, Katz and Sa’ar postponed the decision, stipulating that no reception ceremonies would be held for the Palestinian prisoners released later.

According to Yaghi, Netanyahu is not necessarily seeking to thwart the deal entirely, but he is trying to avoid the second phase of it unless he achieves the war’s goals, as this phase requires taking decisive decisions regarding stopping the war and withdrawing from the Gaza Strip, which threatens the stability of his government. There is also pressure from the Israeli right, as Smotrich threatened to withdraw from the government if Netanyahu decides to withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor, which is a condition of the deal.

Yaghi explains that Netanyahu is discussing with mediators the possibility of bringing forward the date for handing over the bodies of four Israelis to the middle of this week instead of next Thursday. He is also looking into extending the first phase of the deal by releasing additional batches of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for more Israeli detainees, in order to avoid moving to the second phase, which may require a broader agreement that includes political and security arrangements related to the Gaza Strip.

Netanyahu has three options

Yaghi believes that Netanyahu has three main options: thwarting the deal and resuming the fighting, which is a weak scenario because that would endanger the lives of the remaining Israeli prisoners held by Hamas, and the release of previous batches of prisoners created internal pressure on Netanyahu to continue with the deal.

According to Yaghi, the second option is that the first phase of the deal may be extended by continuing the exchange operations without moving to the second phase, an option that faces obstacles because Hamas prefers to implement the deal as agreed upon.

The third option, according to Yaghi, is to move forward towards a comprehensive deal, which is the most likely scenario, but it depends on American intervention and international pressure, in addition to formulating an Arab plan to be announced during the upcoming Arab summit, which includes the future of governance in Gaza, the reconstruction process, and security arrangements.

A pivotal American role in pressuring Netanyahu

Yaghi points out that the United States is playing a pivotal role in pressuring Netanyahu to agree to the Arab plan, especially since US President Donald Trump is seeking to achieve diplomatic progress in the region, while Netanyahu is trying to exploit the situation to obtain political gains in the West Bank to satisfy his government coalition, which was evident in the statements of Israel Katz, who spoke about the Israeli army remaining in the West Bank camps for a whole year.

Yaghi stresses that the future of the deal remains dependent on direct American intervention, as the absence of this pressure could lead to the collapse of the negotiations and the re-ignition of fighting in Gaza, which would further complicate the political and military situation in the region.