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ARAB AND WORLD

Thu 13 Feb 2025 6:07 pm - Jerusalem Time

Israel Considers Launching Strikes on Iran, According to US Intelligence Reports

U.S. intelligence agencies concluded in the final days of the Biden administration that Israel was considering launching major strikes on Iranian nuclear sites this year, aiming to take advantage of Iran’s weakness, according to officials familiar with the report.


The finding was included in an analytical assessment prepared around the new year as the Biden administration nears its end, according to The Wall Street Journal on Thursday, with the analysis highlighting the risks of more high-risk military activity in the Middle East after Iran’s capabilities have deteriorated over the past year.


The intelligence analysis concluded that Israel would push the Trump administration to support the strikes, viewing him as more amenable to joining the offensive than former President Joe Biden and fearing that it would close the window to halt Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon, according to two people familiar with the intelligence told the newspaper.


The U.S. intelligence community (comprised of all U.S. intelligence agencies) also issued a second report, submitted during the first days of the Trump administration, confirming that Israel is considering such strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to one U.S. official familiar with the intelligence.


U.S. military officials say U.S. military support and munitions would likely be needed for an Israeli attack on Iran's heavily fortified nuclear sites.


It is noteworthy that Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz had stated last November: "Iran is more vulnerable than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities. We have the opportunity to achieve our most important goal - to thwart and eliminate the existential threat to the State of Israel."


Iran has in the past threatened retaliation if its nuclear sites were struck, "but Tehran is now significantly weakened after Israeli strikes last year on its conventional military sites, and heavy losses suffered by its regional proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas," the newspaper said.


During the presidential transition, some members of Trump’s team considered the feasibility of Israel launching preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including having U.S. forces join Israeli aircraft in a bombing campaign. Now, as president, Trump has said he favors a negotiated solution. Last week, Trump signed a national security memorandum reimposing his policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran and did not rule out supporting Israeli strikes if his desired negotiations to end Iran’s nuclear work fail.


“Reports that the United States, in collaboration with Israel, is going to blow Iran to the ground are greatly exaggerated,” Trump wrote last week on Truth Social.


Tehran has indicated it is open to talks with the United States. Its foreign minister told state television last week: “If the main obstacle for the United States is Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, this can be resolved. Iran’s position on nuclear weapons is clear.”


In December, U.S. intelligence agencies issued their strongest warnings yet that Iran could move to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has amassed a large stockpile of highly enriched uranium and is believed to have been working out the technical details of completing work on a bomb if it makes the political decision to go ahead. Iran has long renounced developing a nuclear weapon, but the December report concluded that the risks have increased the likelihood that it will change its mind about developing an effective deterrent, pointing to a public debate in the country about going nuclear.


According to experts, the timing and nature of any Israeli strikes on Iran are likely to be subject to negotiations between the United States and Israel and influenced by other factors, including the fate of the fragile ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.

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Israel Considers Launching Strikes on Iran, According to US Intelligence Reports

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