1. A poll conducted by the Arab World Center for Research and Development (AWRAD) in the Gaza Strip showed that the majority of Palestinians view the ceasefire agreement reached between Hamas and Israel on January 15, 2025 positively, with 78% of respondents considering it acceptable (strongly or somewhat), while 22% viewed it as unacceptable. This poll is part of the center’s new research series, “The Day After in the Gaza Strip,” which aims to provide an in-depth reading of the Palestinian reality in light of the transformations that followed the ceasefire.

Key findings and trends

Optimism about the futureThe survey revealed that (60%) of Gaza residents are optimistic about the future, while (56%) indicated their belief that Palestinian society is moving in the right direction. According to the center, this optimism reflects the state of hope associated with the ceasefire agreement and the possibilities of its implementation.

Positive view of the ceasefire agreement: (78%) of the participants said that the agreement is acceptable, while the percentage of those who did not support it was only (22%). Women were more supportive of the agreement at (84%) compared to (72%) among men.

- Regarding the implementation of the agreement, (69%) expressed optimism that it would be fully implemented, while (32%) expressed pessimism.

- Regarding confidence in the parties’ commitment, (75%) said they do not trust Israel’s commitment to the terms of the agreement, compared to only (25%) who trust the extent of its commitment. On the other hand, (67%) expressed confidence that Hamas will fulfill its commitments.

War goals and Israel’s role: (62%) of respondents believed that Israel did not achieve its declared goals from the war, compared to (37%) who believe that it achieved those goals.

Qatar’s role in reaching the agreement: (91%) of respondents rated Qatar’s role in reaching the ceasefire agreement as positive (to a large extent or to some extent), while only (6%) described it as negative.

Regional and international parties

- Egypt: (72%) considered its role positive in reaching a ceasefire agreement.

- The United States: (65%) gave a positive evaluation of Washington’s role, while (63%) indicated that the election and inauguration of President Donald Trump contributed significantly to reaching the agreement, and (33%) believed that it contributed to some extent.

Roles in supporting Palestinians during the war

Qatar recorded the highest positive evaluation rate in supporting Gaza during the aggression, at (82%), followed by the UAE at (74%), Jordan at (70%), then the United Nations at (66%), and finally Egypt at (61%).

- Regarding the Palestinian Authority, (40%) of the population believe that its role was positive during the war.

About the survey methodology

The survey was conducted between 24 and 26 January 2025, and included 600 Palestinians (males and females) from the Gaza Strip. The field research team targeted different locations of shelters, tent camps and residential buildings, coinciding with the preparation of these displaced persons to return to their original homes.

Sample Design: The Center relied on a consistent stratified cluster sample design in selecting the sample, based on data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and satellite images from UNOSAT, in addition to independent population figures through the “Gaza NowPop” project at Oxford University. The North Gaza Governorate was excluded due to the large displacement of its population, as the number of those present there at that time decreased to less than 5% of the total population of the Strip.

- Selection of respondents: The random path methodology was applied to select participants, and the “Kish table” was used, taking into account achieving gender balance.

- Sample weight: To ensure accurate representation, the final sample was weighted based on updated Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics data until December 2023, according to (age group, gender, and educational level).

- Response rate: reached (94%), while the margin of error reached (±4%) at a confidence level of (95%).

Testimony from the field

A field researcher at the Awrad Center explained that the fieldwork coincided with the residents of the Strip preparing to return to their homes, describing mixed scenes of joy and hope on the one hand and frustration and anxiety on the other, especially after the implementation of the decision to allow return was delayed on the first day. She considered this case to be a realistic example of the “half-full glass,” referring to the cautious optimism among Palestinians in Gaza.

"The Next Day in Gaza" series

This survey is the first issue in a new series published by Awrad Center under the title “The Next Day in the Gaza Strip.” The series aims to analyze major issues in the Palestinian arena, and upcoming issues include the following topics:

- Humanitarian conditions, response to urgent needs, and sources of information.

Gaza between government and administration.

- Elections as a preferred path out of the crisis.

Awrad management stresses the importance of this series in supporting decision-making through accurate analysis based on recent field data, and monitoring the changes in Palestinian public opinion following the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip.

For more details

• The full survey results can be viewed on the Awrad Center website: www.awrad.org

• Or contact us via email: [email protected]