In a letter addressed to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Israel's Ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, gave the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) a deadline to cease its activities in Jerusalem and vacate all buildings it occupies by Thursday, January 30, at the latest.

Last October, the Israeli Knesset finally approved, in the second and third readings, a law banning UNRWA’s activities inside the occupying state. This law is scheduled to enter into force at the end of this month.

UN officials, observers and analysts told "I" that these Israeli measures are a clear violation of international laws and the pledges and charters that Israel has historically signed. They stressed that the Israeli goal is to liquidate UNRWA, prevent its work and close its offices as a prelude to liquidating the refugee issue, considering that this Israeli measure "exposes the weakness of the United Nations and its lackluster and flawed position."

Breach of UNRWA's international and UN immunity

UNRWA spokesman Adnan Abu Hasna said that a letter was sent from the Israeli side to the UN Secretary-General, and a response will be received.

He pointed out that the lands on which UNRWA facilities are located, including the main headquarters in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of Jerusalem, are occupied lands since 1967, stressing that an official statement will be issued later in this regard.

Abu Hasna considered the Israeli measures a clear violation of international laws and the pledges and covenants that Israel has historically signed with the United Nations, which require respecting the United Nations institutions and facilitating their work.

Abu Hasna added: These measures constitute a violation of the international and UN immunity enjoyed by UNRWA and other UN organizations.

Abu Hasna described this Israeli step as dangerous, considering it a precedent that could encourage other countries to enact local laws to ban UN organizations such as UNICEF, the World Health Organization, and the World Food Program. He considered this measure to be a fundamental blow to the international multilateral system that was established after World War II.

UNRWA expulsion enters critical phase towards implementation

In turn, Sami Mshasha, who follows UNRWA affairs and is its former official spokesman, said that with the letter of the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations to the Secretary-General, the stage of expelling the agency has entered the decisive stage towards implementation.

He added: The message confirms the intention and insistence on gradually dismantling UNRWA, starting with Jerusalem, and exposes the weakness of the United Nations and its weak and flawed position, which is content to emphasize that "there is no alternative to UNRWA," without presenting any clear plans to confront the repercussions of the decision.

Mshasha stressed that this "initial decision" exempts the United Nations from bearing its responsibilities with strong and deterrent plans.

He pointed out that the United Nations has surrendered, and the international community is either helpless, complicit in its silence, or adapting to the new reality.

He explained that the Israeli ambassador's letter speaks in all impudence about the fact that the 1967 "Komai-McClmore" agreement, which enabled UNRWA to operate in the occupied territories while guaranteeing its immunity and privileges, is a temporary agreement, and therefore will be cancelled at the end of this month.

“The request to evacuate the presidential headquarters in Sheikh Jarrah, which has great symbolic importance, and the large Qalandia Vocational Training Institute, both of which are targeted for the establishment of two settlement outposts, shows that the matter is not limited to these two sites only, but rather the decision will affect all UNRWA facilities and operations in Jerusalem, including its facilities in the Shuafat camp,” Mshasha added.

He stressed that the immediate implementation of evacuating the two headquarters at the end of the month would be a first step towards evacuating the remaining facilities in Jerusalem and its suburbs.

The financial crisis and its impact on the provision of basic services

Mshasha explained that UNRWA, through its Commissioner-General, confirmed the continuation of its work in the West Bank, Gaza, and its areas of operation in Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, but its expulsion from Jerusalem is accompanied by systematic financial strangulation of the agency.

He pointed out that the current financial crisis greatly limits its ability to provide basic services, which will increase the economic suffering of refugees and cause large numbers of them to fall below the poverty line.

He continued: “UNRWA has requested a budget of $1.7 billion for 2025 to manage its basic services, in addition to $464 million for the emergency budget, but donor countries usually provide only about 50% of the requested amount. With the absence of American and Swedish support and the decline in Dutch and Swiss support, what will be available to the agency will be very small compared to the growing needs.”

Mshasha described the agency as a "lame duck" whose mandate as an international entity concerned with protecting the rights of Palestinian refugees has been eroded, noting that the Commissioner-General linked the future of UNRWA to a political solution linked to the two-state solution, instead of its commitment to its basic mandate linked to the right of return and compensation.

Mshasha stressed that this year will witness more systematic pressure on the agency, starting with its expulsion from Jerusalem, and the impact on its services in Areas C and B of the West Bank, in addition to the reduction of its educational, health and relief services in Gaza, which also faces major challenges due to the massive destruction that has affected more than 200 of its facilities.

Deteriorating conditions of refugees in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan

He pointed out that Palestinian refugees in Syria and Lebanon will face an exacerbation of their humanitarian crises, while the conditions of refugees in Jordan will worsen as a result of the economic hardship. At the same time, Israeli authorities are working to find alternatives to UNRWA to weaken and end its role.

Mish'sha concluded his statement to "Y" by calling for exploiting the powers of the UN Secretary-General, by activating Article 99 of the UN Charter to summon the Security Council and pressure Israel to stop its actions against "UNRWA".

Mshasha stressed that there is a chance to classify Israel as a rogue state or freeze its membership in the United Nations if it carries out its threats, but he added: “Perhaps the opportunity exists, but the intention is completely absent. The occupation won its war on the agency, and we, the people of the cause, with our silence and the absence of confrontation plans, are losing the agency and eroding the right of return with our own hands.”

UNRWA must continue operating as usual in Jerusalem

For his part, Dr. Ibrahim Abu Jaber, an expert in Israeli affairs, commented on the Israeli ambassador’s demand to vacate UNRWA’s headquarters in Jerusalem by January 31, saying that UNRWA must continue its work as usual in the city.

He pointed out that UNRWA provides important services to Palestinian refugee camps in the greater Jerusalem area, especially to refugees displaced since 1948.

Abu Jaber explained that UNRWA, as an international organization recognized by the United Nations, has the right to continue its work.

He added: "Although the Israeli entity withdrew its recognition of it and cancelled the 1967 agreement that regulated the work of UNRWA, it remains an international institution that enjoys the support of the United Nations, specifically from the General Assembly."

Abu Jaber pointed out the need to exert international pressure on Israel to change its approach, which would allow UNRWA to continue its work, especially after US President Donald Trump assumed the presidency of the United States of America, who exerted pressure on Netanyahu and forced him to sign the prisoner exchange deal with Hamas, which is currently taking place in the Gaza Strip.

Scenarios for the future of UNRWA in Jerusalem

He added: "There are multiple scenarios regarding the future of UNRWA in Jerusalem:

First, the continuation of UNRWA’s work: The organization continues to perform its tasks and services to Palestinian refugees in Jerusalem and the West Bank as usual.

Second, closing UNRWA offices in Jerusalem: if the Israeli authorities carry out their threats, which is a likely possibility in light of the racist policies of the current Israeli government.

Third, changing the way it works: UNRWA should work through other relief associations or institutions, whether Palestinian or international, as happened in the Gaza Strip.

Fourth, moving the headquarters to another location: UNRWA will move its headquarters to a new location and continue its work from there, either under its own name or under another name.

Fifth, ending UNRWA’s work in Jerusalem permanently: This is the zero-sum scenario that is expected to result in the complete closure of UNRWA’s offices and the end of its work in the city.

Abu Jaber concluded his statement to “I” by expressing his hope that “UNRWA” will continue to perform its work, hoping that international efforts will be achieved to protect the organization from attempts to end and restrict it.

Successive Israeli governments did not oppose the decision to establish UNRWA.

For his part, writer and journalist Abdul Marouf said that successive Israeli governments did not oppose the United Nations resolution in 1949 to establish the UNRWA for the relief and works of Palestinian refugees in their five places of refuge, with the aim of keeping the Palestinians busy with humanitarian aid, linking their fate to the United Nations institutions, and not adhering to national institutions and options.

He pointed out that the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) was established by UN General Assembly Resolution 302 (IV) on 8 December 1949 "to implement direct relief and works programmes" for Palestine refugees. The Agency began its operations on 1 May 1950, and these services included education, health, relief and social services.

"UNRWA has a humanitarian and development mandate to provide assistance and protection to Palestine refugees, pending a just and lasting solution to their plight," Marouf said.

He added: "In the early years of its establishment, the Palestinians looked at UNRWA with suspicion and doubt, fearing that this international organization would deviate towards settlement plans. The refugees have faced many settlement plans since the early fifties with UNRWA."

UNRWA is a witness to the humanitarian tragedy of refugees

But after the weakness and decline of the services of the Palestinian factions, and the decline of their field role among the refugees, after the year 1982, and the adoption of the option of settlement and negotiations with the Israeli occupation, the Palestinian factions and references returned to clinging to the Relief Agency (UNRWA), first, as a witness to the humanitarian tragedy of the Palestinian refugees, and second, to ensure the provision of aid and services to alleviate the state of poverty and destitution to which they are exposed.

The writer Marouf, who resides in Lebanon, confirmed that the existence of UNRWA means the existence of a cause, a tragedy, and rights for Palestinian refugees. Therefore, the Israeli authorities, with all their parties, see the need to liquidate UNRWA as a prelude to liquidating the Palestinian refugee issue, which would ensure their displacement to American, European, and Australian countries, or granting them the citizenship of the countries in which they reside.

He added: "The Israeli goal today is to liquidate UNRWA, prevent its work, and close its offices as a prelude to liquidating its role completely, as a step towards liquidating the Palestinian refugee issue as a link in the chain of liquidating the Palestinian issue, and facilitating the displacement of refugees to Western countries or granting them citizenship in the countries in which they reside."

The response of the Arab and international communities will be limited to condemnation!

He stressed that in light of the state of weakness that the Arab situation in general and the Palestinian situation in particular is going through, and the broad American influence in the United Nations and on the Arab authorities, it is clear that the occupation practices and restrictions on UNRWA will not witness more than statements of denunciation and condemnation, and the United Nations will not be able to put an end to the Israeli practices, harassment and decisions against UNRWA.

He said: "There is no doubt that there is an Israeli decision to weaken and liquidate UNRWA, albeit in successive steps, in all its places of work, and this is what will increase the humanitarian and national tragedy of the Palestinian refugees, and will expose them to more suffering, oppression and destitution, and will expose them to more loss.

He added: The response of the Arab and international community to the Israeli decisions will not go beyond statements and declarations of condemnation and denunciation. Those who were unable to stop the massacres and war of extermination that the Gaza Strip has been subjected to for a year and four months, and were unable to implement the decisions of international legitimacy since 1948, will not be able today to prevent Tel Aviv from implementing its decisions regarding UNRWA, preventing its work and closing its main headquarters in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in Jerusalem.

Israeli incitement campaign against UNRWA and cutting off support for it

For his part, Adnan Al-Afandy, an expert in Israeli affairs, said: Last October, the Israeli Knesset finally approved, in the second and third readings, a law banning UNRWA’s activities inside the occupying state. This law is scheduled to enter into force at the end of this month.

He stressed that this decision was preceded by an official campaign of incitement from the occupying state over the past years, as well as the cutting off of support from Western countries to the agency, considering this "a liquidation of the refugee issue and a collective punishment of about 5.8 million Palestinian refugees in the homeland and diaspora, especially since the agency provides its health, educational and social services to millions of refugees inside and outside."

He pointed out that the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, demanded that UNRWA evacuate its headquarters in Jerusalem and cease its activities by Thursday, the 30th of this month, based on the law passed by the Knesset.

He said that the occupying state accused UNRWA of being infiltrated by Hamas members in the Gaza Strip, and that some of its employees participated in the attacks of October 7, 2023. Danon considered that UNRWA had breached its basic commitment to integrity and neutrality.

Al-Afandy expressed his belief that UNRWA will not stop its activities in Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, especially since the Commissioner-General of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, Philippe Lazzarini, denounced this decision. Lazzarini said that the Israeli decision threatens to sabotage the ceasefire in Gaza, stressing the need for UNRWA to continue its work in Gaza and throughout the occupied Palestinian territories.

Al-Afandy pointed out that this decision was met with condemnation from the international community, especially from the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, who stated that it is necessary for UNRWA to be able to carry out its work in the occupied Palestinian territories.

Harming UNRWA's activities and services to refugees

He explained that the continuation of UNRWA's work would be difficult and dangerous for its employees, as the occupying state would place many obstacles to prevent them from doing their work properly and preventing them from providing the services it provides throughout the occupied Palestinian territories.

He added: This scenario is the most likely in the future, which will greatly affect UNRWA's activities and the services it provides, especially in the Palestinian camps that depend heavily on its services in all areas of life.

Al-Afandy expected that this decision would have serious political implications for the issue of Palestinian refugees and the right of return, which is guaranteed by UN General Assembly Resolution No. 194.

He believed that this Israeli decision represents an attempt to erase the refugee issue and the right of return, and to strip it of international legitimacy.

He also pointed out that in recent days the occupation has been targeting Palestinian gatherings, especially camps, in a context that is consistent with Israeli law that prohibits UNRWA activities in places where Palestinians are present in all occupied territories.

Al-Afandy stressed that this decision has dimensions related to the occupation’s attempt to consolidate its control over occupied Jerusalem, especially since UNRWA provides services to more than 110,000 refugees in the fields of health, education, and others.

UNRWA does not have the ability to confront the de facto authority

For his part, Dr. Muhammad Halsa, an expert in Israeli affairs, said: “UNRWA will accept the Israeli decision, and there is actual evidence that it has begun to transfer its employees and cadres from the city of Jerusalem. It does not have the ability to confront the de facto authority and will not clash with it, especially since UNRWA, as well as the United Nations and its affiliated bodies, lack the executive tools that would enable it to prevent the Israeli decision, especially since it is a political decision and not a legal one.”

Halsa added: "This decision comes in the context of the ongoing Israeli war on international platforms and bodies, and within the framework of the right-wing government's measures seeking to pursue the issue of refugees and their rights."

He pointed out that there are persistent Israeli efforts to end the role of UNRWA, not because of the services it provides, nor because of the fabrications that Israel fabricated about the participation of UNRWA members in the events of October 7. These allegations were nothing more than a pretext to attack UNRWA, which represents an important political symbol for the idea of asylum, and its survival is a witness that reminds the world of the right of refugees to return to their homes.

The liquidation of UNRWA in Jerusalem carries complex symbolism

He stressed that the attack on UNRWA in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem is an attempt to bury the dream of the return of refugees. In Jerusalem in particular, the matter carries complex symbolism, as Halsa added: “I believe that Israel started in Jerusalem because it considers it its capital and the area of its absolute sovereignty, and if it can impose a fait accompli in Jerusalem, where the central leadership of these international institutions is, it will give it a free hand to end UNRWA’s work in the rest of the Palestinian territories.”

He pointed out that the voice of international platforms is weak, and no real measures have been taken to prevent Israel from implementing its steps, while UNRWA and its leadership are content with begging and wishing. UNRWA also did not resort to the Security Council to demand a halt to the Israeli measures, nor did it go to the International Criminal Court or others, which made it easier for Israel to pounce on it.

UNRWA is likely to evacuate its offices soon, and the alternative scenario, according to Israeli media, is for the Red Crescent to take over the services provided by UNRWA, as Israel believes that the Red Crescent does not carry political symbolism, and seeks to create other alternatives in coordination with its allies in the region.