Awni Al-Mashni: Any Israeli government, regardless of its orientations, cannot contradict the American desire to stop the war

Dr. Aql Salah: Israeli military, economic and political pressures make it difficult for Netanyahu to stop implementing the deal

Dr. Tamara Haddad: The success of the first phase does not necessarily guarantee the completion of the two subsequent phases of the exchange deal under strict Israeli conditions

Noman Abed: Implementing the first phase requires continuous American and mediator pressure to ensure transition to the second and third phases

Dr. Saad Nimr: Netanyahu is living on “borrowed time” and is trying to keep Smotrich in the government, but the opposition will not give him a safety net after the deal ends

Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem: Netanyahu has lost his popular and political support, and his ruling coalition will not be able to hold out for long and may collapse by next March

Despite the progress of the first phase of the ongoing deal between Israel and Hamas, regarding the release of prisoners and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, challenges regarding reaching the final stages of the deal remain, especially in light of the internal differences within the Israeli government coalition and the increasing international pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In separate interviews with “I,” writers, political analysts, specialists, and university professors believe that American pressure plays a pivotal role in pushing the deal forward and reaching the second phase of the deal, which will address more sensitive issues such as disarmament and the management of the Gaza Strip, and may face major obstacles due to strict Israeli conditions and disagreements within the government coalition.

Netanyahu faces serious internal challenges, he points out, as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir withdrew from the government over his rejection of the deal, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatens to withdraw if his demands regarding the West Bank are not met. These disagreements could lead to the disintegration of the government coalition, especially with the increasing internal and external pressure on Netanyahu, who is trying hard to keep his government together through political maneuvering and new promises.

The war on Gaza has reached its end and the deal will continue

Writer and political analyst Awni Al-Mashni believes that the war in Gaza has reached its end, and that the deal that was reached will continue despite the difficulties that may be faced in the second phase of negotiations.

Al-Mashni points out that American pressure, especially after President Donald Trump came to power, was a major factor in pushing the parties towards calm and ending the war, due to the American administration’s special interests in the regional and international agenda.

Al-Mashni explains that the US administration, which arms and supports Israel and covers up the mass massacres being committed in Gaza, is now exerting great pressure on the Israeli government to stop the war.

Al-Mashni stresses that any Israeli government, regardless of its orientations, cannot contradict the American desire to stop the war, which makes the continuation of the war difficult in light of these American demands and pressures.

Al-Mashni points out that the first phase of the deal will continue, but the second phase will be more complex and difficult, as it will address more sensitive issues such as the future of Gaza, Hamas rule, and security issues.

Al-Mashni expects that the negotiations at this stage will continue for a longer period than expected, but he ultimately confirms that the war in Gaza has reached its end, and that the deal will find its way to the light despite the difficulties.

On the other hand, Al-Mashni points out that the Israeli war in Gaza did not achieve the desired goals of the Israeli right, as the residents of Gaza were not displaced, and Hamas’ rule was not ended or its existence eliminated, which makes it impossible for the war to continue to achieve more military gains.

Al-Mashni asserts that the steadfastness of the Palestinian people in Gaza was remarkable, as they fought under extremely complex and difficult circumstances, which led to the war ending without Israel achieving a decisive victory for either side, but it left Israel in a situation in which it could not move forward in achieving its military goals.

Regarding the internal Israeli political situation, Al-Mashni points out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is primarily seeking to maintain his government coalition, which is the most important goal for him at this stage, as Netanyahu’s remaining in power is the highest goal for him, and it is more important than freeing prisoners, stopping the war, or any other goal.

Al-Mashni explains that Netanyahu faces major challenges within his government coalition, especially from the Israeli right, which is demanding more stringent goals in the war.

However, Mashni believes that Netanyahu will be able to create new opportunities to preserve his coalition, by shifting the conflict from Gaza to the West Bank, where he can market the war as not over yet, but rather moving to a new phase.

Al-Mashni points out that transferring the war to the West Bank is a clever attempt by Netanyahu to market the war to stay in power, especially since the West Bank is considered more important to the extremist Zionist ideology than Gaza.

Al-Mashni points out that Netanyahu can pass the war on the West Bank as an alternative to the war in Gaza, which allows him to maintain his government coalition.

Al-Mashni believes that Netanyahu is playing a professional political game to maintain his coalition, and that even with the end of the war in Gaza, he will be able to maintain the balance of his government.

Al-Mashni points out that any reasons for the collapse of the government coalition will be related to internal issues such as recruitment and the budget, and not to the war on Gaza or Lebanon.

Mashni believes that Netanyahu has clear answers regarding the war in Gaza and Lebanon, but he faces major challenges on issues such as the conscription law and the budget, which could weaken his government coalition.

However, Mashni believes that Netanyahu will be able to keep his coalition together as long as possible, using all the political tools available to him.

Israeli society showed broad support for the deal.

Writer and political researcher Dr. Aql Salah believes that the current deal between Israel and the Palestinian resistance will continue until its end, in light of the increasing pressure from Israeli society and the military establishment on the Israeli government, especially on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Salah points out that Israeli society has shown broad support for the deal, which will play a pivotal role in pushing Netanyahu to continue implementing it.

Salah explains that Netanyahu faces a difficult situation with the families of the Israeli prisoners, especially in the second phase of the deal, which includes the release of Israeli soldiers, officers and leaders.

Salah confirms that the Israeli military establishment views these prisoners differently from its view of civilian prisoners in the first phase, which increases pressure on Netanyahu to complete the deal.

Salah points out that the Israeli military establishment had been pushing to complete the deal and stop the war since the beginning of the war, due to the heavy human losses suffered by the Israeli army.

Salah points out that international, military, political, economic and Israeli societal pressures make it difficult for Netanyahu to stop implementing the deal.

Salah expects the exchange process to continue as agreed upon, without any obstacles to its continuation.

However, Salah points out that Netanyahu, who is known for breaking promises and trying to obstruct the deal for 15 months, may try to slow down implementation for a limited period of time to obtain concessions from the Palestinian resistance, especially regarding the issue of prisoners serving life sentences and some leaders that Israel considers a “red line.”

Salah stresses that international pressure, especially from US President Donald Trump, who considers himself the main achiever of this deal, will play a major role in forcing Netanyahu to continue implementing the agreement.

Salah points out that Trump has confirmed on more than one occasion that this deal is one of his achievements, which makes it difficult for Netanyahu to back down from it.

The second phase will be more complex and important.

Salah believes that the second phase of the deal will be more complex and important than the first phase, as it will include the release of Palestinian leaders who have great influence among the Palestinian people, in addition to high-ranking Israeli prisoners.

Salah expects that compromises will be reached at this stage, despite Netanyahu's attempts to pressure to reduce the ceiling of the resistance's demands.

Regarding the internal political situation in Israel, Salah points out that the continuation of Netanyahu's government coalition depends largely on the continuation of the deal.

However, Salah points out that Smotrich's withdrawal from the government, or his threat to withdraw, could lead to the disintegration of the government coalition.

Salah confirms that Smotrich will try to blackmail Netanyahu to obtain additional gains, especially with regard to the West Bank, even though Netanyahu has no other cards to give to Smotrich.

Salah believes that the investigation committee that will be formed to investigate the failures of the war after October 7, 2023, in Israel will play a major role in determining Netanyahu's political future.

Salah expects that this committee will lead to the disintegration of the government coalition and push Israel towards early elections, which may mean the end of Netanyahu's political era and the beginning of a new phase in Israeli politics and the emergence of new parties and coalitions.

Major challenges facing the second and third phases

Writer and political researcher Dr. Tamara Haddad believes that the success of the first phase does not necessarily guarantee the completion of the subsequent phases of the exchange deal, especially in light of the strict Israeli conditions and security requirements imposed on Hamas.

Haddad explains that the first phase of the deal, which will last for 42 days, focuses on releasing the living Israeli prisoners, who number 33 so far, in addition to bringing humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

Haddad points out that this stage is on the right track, as Hamas was able to present an initial list of living hostages to the mediators, which reflects an initial agreement between the two parties to complete this stage.

However, Haddad pointed out that the second and third stages of the deal face major challenges, especially with regard to the Israeli requirements that focus on disarming the resistance in the Gaza Strip.

Haddad confirms that Israel is setting disarmament as a basic condition for moving to the second stage, which is considered a major dilemma for Hamas, which sees weapons as a major tool for confronting the occupation and keeping itself strong.

Haddad believes that the third stage, which is related to reconstruction and management of the Gaza Strip, is one in which Israel wants a Palestinian administration close to the international community, capable of managing relief, administrative and living aspects.

Haddad points out that the presence of Hamas in power is an obstacle to reconstruction, as many European countries refuse to provide financial support for reconstruction as long as Hamas holds the reins of power in the Strip.

Haddad stresses that internal Palestinian consensus is a crucial factor in the success of any reconstruction process, noting that the Palestinian Authority is the best option to manage the Gaza Strip, especially in light of the absence of an internationally agreed-upon Palestinian administration.

Haddad points out that the presence of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza will remove the pretext from Israel to continue the fighting, and will allow the entry of aid and reconstruction to proceed normally.

On the other hand, Haddad points out that the presence of Hamas in the Gaza Strip is considered a justification for Israel to continue the fighting, especially in light of the internal crises facing Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

Haddad explains that Netanyahu considers continuing the fighting with Hamas a means of saving his government from collapse, especially in light of the internal divisions and judicial investigations that his government is facing.

Haddad stresses that Hamas' continued presence in power will mean the continuation of wars and divisions, which will hinder any real efforts to rebuild and improve the lives of citizens in the Gaza Strip.

Haddad calls for putting the Palestinian house in order and choosing a Palestinian administration that is agreed upon by the Palestinians and the international community, as a basic step to cut off the pretexts for Israel and ensure the successful completion of the stages of the deal.

Haddad stresses that the success of the second and third phases of the deal requires American, Egyptian and Qatari pressure to push the two parties towards consensus, especially in light of the security and political challenges that hinder any real progress in the peace process.

Netanyahu may return to war and genocide after the end of the first stage

Writer and political analyst specializing in international relations, Noman Abed, believes that the increasing American pressure is what pushed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the deal after his government failed to achieve its military and political goals in the Gaza Strip.

Abed explains that Israel, after more than 15 months of military operations and a war of "genocide", has not been able to achieve its declared goals, but what happened was to punish the Palestinian people and take revenge on them in a systematic manner after the attacks of October 7.

Abed points out that the Israeli government used negotiations as a tool for evasion, while it was implementing a policy of ethnic cleansing and pressuring the Palestinians to force them to leave or emigrate outside their homeland, in addition to attempts to dismember the Gaza Strip and seize parts of its lands, especially in the north.

Abed believes that the administration of US President Joe Biden gave Israel enough time to achieve its goals, and despite that, the occupation government failed to force the Palestinians to surrender or displace them completely.

Abed asserts that this failure, along with the cases filed against Netanyahu and his former defense minister in international courts, led to increased international isolation of Israel and placed it under great pressure, which prompted the US administration to intervene directly to pressure Netanyahu to accept the exchange deal.

Abed points out that the current deal, despite its importance, does not address the amount of bloodshed in the Gaza Strip, nor does it address the ongoing violations in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.

Abed stresses that implementing the first phase of the deal requires continuous American pressure to ensure the transition to the second and third phases, which are considered more sensitive and require effective intervention from international mediators.

Abed warns that Netanyahu and his government may return to the policy of war and genocide once again after the end of the first phase of the deal, especially if it is not forced to continue completing the deal, stressing that the complete success of the deal requires a real cessation of aggression and giving the opportunity for reconstruction and stopping settlements and assassinations.

Abed expects that Netanyahu's failure to achieve his goals will lead to the collapse of his government and Israel's entry into early elections, especially in light of the trials awaiting him due to his failure in the October 7 attacks and various corruption cases, but international and local pressure may be the decisive factor in ending Netanyahu's political era.

Netanyahu has no option to stop the deal at this stage

Dr. Saad Nimr, a professor of political science at Birzeit University, believes that the exchange deal between Israel and Hamas will continue until its end, despite the challenges and disagreements within the Israeli government coalition regarding it.

Nimr explains that the first phase of the deal, which includes a 42-day ceasefire and the release of 33 Israeli prisoners in exchange for a large group of Palestinian prisoners, is proceeding according to what was agreed upon, due to internal and external pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Nimr points out that Netanyahu does not have the option of stopping the deal at this stage, because that would mean returning to war, which would face strong opposition from the United States and countries supporting Israel.

Nimr believes that the second phase of the deal will be more complicated due to the issues related to disarmament and the management of the Gaza Strip, but international pressure will force Israel to move forward with implementing the agreement.

On the other hand, Nimr addresses the disagreements within the Israeli government coalition, as Ben Gvir announced his rejection of the deal and the ceasefire, and withdrew from the government.

Nimr points out that Ben Gvir publicly admitted that he and Smotrich had disrupted previous exchange deals, which led to the continuation of the massacres in the Gaza Strip. This admission sparked great controversy in Israel, and they were accused of causing further losses in the ranks of the Israeli army.

Nimer points out that Smotrich voted against the deal, but decided to remain in the government after he received guarantees to begin intensive military operations in the West Bank.

Nimr believes that Smotrich will remain in the government until the end of the first stage of the deal, but he may withdraw if the war in Gaza does not continue, and he may continue because he may consider attacking the resistance in the West Bank an alternative to it.

Nimr points out that Netanyahu is trying to postpone the collapse of his government by playing with time and provoking new crises, whether in Gaza or the West Bank.

Nimer asserts that Netanyahu is living on “borrowed time,” as he tries to keep Smotrich in the government through new promises, but he realizes that the Israeli opposition will not give him a permanent safety net after the deal ends, but will only give him that net when the deal is completed.

Nimr explains that the current stage is decisive, and that the end of the first stage of the deal will reveal the fate of the Israeli government and the course of future events.

Netanyahu has lost the ability to maneuver politically.

Writer and political analyst Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is experiencing a severe political deterioration, trying through his evasions and military escalations in Gaza and Lebanon to divert the attention of Israeli public opinion from his growing internal crises.

Suwailem asserts that Netanyahu has lost the popular and political cover he relied on, and now has nothing but "reckless movements" in a desperate attempt to stop his political collapse.

Suwailem explains that Netanyahu, who is now classified as the “number one liar” in Israel according to local opinion polls, is suffering from a sharp decline in his popularity and a loss of trust even from those closest to him.

Suwailem points out that Netanyahu is trying to create small crises here and there, whether in the Gaza Strip or on the Lebanese border, to divert attention from the dire conditions his government has reached, which is now besieged internally and externally.

Suwailem believes that Netanyahu is losing control of the internal situation in Israel, as political forces and even the Israeli street have begun to realize that his government is no longer able to manage crises effectively. He is desperately trying to salvage what remains of his popularity, but he will not be able to change the course of events or achieve any real results.

Regarding the ongoing exchange deal between Israel and Hamas, Suwailem points out that Netanyahu is trying to complicate the process through evasions and creating obstacles, but in the end he does not have the internal or external cover to return to war.

Suwailem asserts that Israeli society no longer believes in the ability of Netanyahu's government to achieve any military victories, especially after the failure of the Israeli army to achieve its goals during the war on Gaza.

Suwailem believes that Netanyahu has also lost the international support he relied on, as Arab countries have begun to adopt more firm positions in the face of his escalating policies.

Suwailem points out that the US administration, despite its traditional support for Israel, has begun to pressure Netanyahu to cool the atmosphere and complete the exchange deal, which means that Netanyahu no longer has the political cover he had previously enjoyed.

Suwailem expects that Netanyahu's government will not be able to hold out for long, noting that the ruling coalition may collapse by next March.

He confirms that Netanyahu has lost the ability to politically maneuver, which used to distinguish him, and is no longer able to convince the Israeli street or political forces with his speech.

Suwailem points out that recent opinion polls show that the bloc supporting Netanyahu ranges between 25 and 30% only, reflecting a significant decline in his popularity.

Suwailem believes that getting rid of Netanyahu's government is not only in the interest of the Palestinian people, but also in the interest of Israel and the international community. It is dangerous and its collapse will contribute to strengthening international peace and peaceful coexistence in the region and the world.