Amir Makhoul: Israel was forced into this deal, which showed signs of the collapse of the right-wing dream of “Greater Israel”

Johnny Mansour: The agreement is a failure for Washington and Tel Aviv because it was based on Biden's proposal, which Hamas agreed to but Israel did not.

Dr. Muhammad Halsa: It is too early to talk about final results because we are still in the negotiations phase, which is an important part of the war rounds.

Thaer Abu Ras: This war represents a turning point in the history of the conflict and Israel failed to achieve strategic gains

Abdul Marouf: Victory in this conflict is not achieved in one round, but through the accumulation of points and victories over the long term.

Dr. Riad Al-Aila: The concept of victory in this war remains confined to the framework of Palestinian steadfastness despite the heavy losses in the Strip

Wadih Abu Nassar: We cannot talk about victories in this war, and all parties have suffered heavy losses, with varying degrees.

With the appearance of white smoke, and the announcement by the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar last Wednesday night of reaching a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, after more than fifteen months of war of extermination and ethnic cleansing by Israel, and unprecedented steadfastness by the people of the Gaza Strip and their resistance, the media and television stations are competing to analyze the gains and losses of this war, and a question appears that seems simple, but the answer to it does not seem as simple, but rather is open to interpretation and complex calculations: Who is the victor and who is the loser?

The calculations of profit and loss, victory and defeat are neither easy nor final in a war that has not yet ended, even if the sounds of cannons, planes and bullets have stopped. A war fought by resistance factions with limited armament and equipment in the Gaza Strip, and behind them other support fronts, on the one hand, and Israel, which has the strongest army in the Middle East, and with it the United States and the colonial Western countries with what they have lavished on it in missiles, ammunition and political, diplomatic and economic support.

If victory is measured by the goals achieved by each party, then Israel has not achieved its declared goals since the beginning of the war, but it has managed to make the Gaza Strip a place unfit for human habitation, by committing massacres and holocausts that have left more than one hundred and fifty thousand martyrs and wounded, in addition to the missing, in addition to the massive destruction it has caused to homes, buildings, schools, universities, mosques, churches, infrastructure and fields. If the resistance was unable to defeat Israel, it has succeeded in inflicting heavy losses on its ranks and equipment, and has often transferred the confrontation to the "enemy's" rear and internal front.

Writers and analysts who spoke to “Y” considered that Israel was forced into this deal, which showed signs of the collapse of the right-wing dream of “Greater Israel.” However, “it is too early to talk about final results, because we are still in the negotiations phase, which is an important part of the rounds of war.”

The deal does not bring any real victories for either party.

The writer specializing in Israeli affairs, Amir Makhoul, said that the recent deal does not carry real victories for any party, whether Palestinian or Israeli, but it reflects profound changes in the Israeli political scene, especially in the ruling right-wing camp.

He explained that Israel was forced into this deal, which showed signs of the collapse of the right-wing dream of a "Greater Land of Israel," in light of the accumulated failures since October 7.

"I don't think there are any real victories in this deal, despite its importance. It seems to be an end to the war in the end. We cannot talk about a Palestinian victory, and we certainly cannot talk about an Israeli victory. Rather, it is an addition or accumulation to the failure that began on October 7," he said.

Makhoul added: “The biggest loser in this deal, which Israel was forced into and was compelled to, is the ruling Israeli far right, from Netanyahu to Smotrich and Ben Gvir, as the signs of the collapse of the right-wing dream of “Greater Israel” have begun, whether in settling Gaza or annexing it, or in settling Lebanon and annexing the West Bank. All of that is no longer taken for granted.”

"Sharpening Knives" in Israeli Politics

He stressed that the current Israeli situation can be described as "sharpening knives" in Israeli politics, meaning settling scores within one camp, especially in the right-wing camp, whether within Smotrich's party, Ben-Gvir's party, or towards Netanyahu himself.

Makhoul pointed out that Netanyahu is the biggest loser in this battle, but he had no alternative, as his ruling coalition has become an obstacle to American policies and any Israeli horizon. This may lead to an Israeli awakening now by demanding accountability and questioning about what happened, and investigating the events after October 7.

He saw that Israeli society seems generally satisfied with this deal, although the cracking of the Israeli right represents a new and unfamiliar situation, and it is not known where things will go. It may lead to a decline of the right, which is a weak possibility, or the right may reorganize itself as happened in the past, and may resort to major terrorist acts to prevent any progress that is believed to be against the “Greater Land of Israel” project.

Makhoul said: "This bloody right may commit major crimes in the West Bank against Palestinian leaders or Palestinians in general, with the aim of inflaming matters and maintaining the occupation.

Palestinians cry and rejoice at the same time

He added: "In Palestine, we cannot talk about victory in light of the torrent of blood and total destruction in Gaza. We cannot talk about real joy, despite the joy of the families of the liberated prisoners, because people are crying and rejoicing at the same time," explaining that this situation reflects a new approach to the painful reality.

He added: "The huge price paid was not by the will of the Palestinian people, and this highlights the need for Palestinian achievement and consensus to address the next stage."

Makhoul warned that the deal could be exploited by Israel to inflame internal tensions in Gaza, with the possibility of internal fighting if Palestinian consensus is not achieved.

He said: "The presence of Arab or international forces may be a facilitating factor, but it may ultimately lead to the return of the Palestinian Authority to manage the affairs of Gaza, which is not currently agreed upon, which poses a great risk that may lead to internal conflict."

At the end of his speech, Makhoul stressed, "The biggest winner is the remaining Palestinian people, who are seeking to pick up their wounds and pieces after the disaster. The priority now must be to stop the war and rebuild Gaza, with a focus on holding Israel accountable and holding it responsible for this destruction."

Israel has not been able to disarm Hamas of all its weapons.

For his part, historian and Middle East researcher Johnny Mansour said that the war, with its results, produced a situation that cannot be said to be similar, but each party claims to have achieved its goals.

He added: "On the ground, if we examine the Israeli goals of the war that began after October 7, it becomes clear that the war was not finally decided, contrary to what Netanyahu called 'the absolute victory over Hamas.'"

He stressed that Israel was unable to strip Hamas of all its weapons and military stockpiles, and was only able to recover the hostages through negotiations that took place in November 2023 and recently, when a ceasefire agreement was reached.

Mansour saw that Israel had dealt particularly painful blows to Palestinian civilians. This war led to the genocide of tens of thousands of Palestinians, the almost complete destruction of the Gaza Strip, and the displacement of its population.

However, he pointed out that the Palestinians maintained their presence within the Strip, and did not become refugees outside its borders, but rather became internally displaced persons.

On the other hand, Mansour stressed that this war showed, after 467 days, the failure of the US administration in its policy towards stopping the war.

He explained that the current agreement, which was based on a proposal submitted by US President Biden on May 27 and approved by the Hamas leadership, was not approved by Israel at the time, which is a failure for the US administration and Netanyahu's government.

The agreement includes a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Strip.

He said: "The war lasted for more than 8 months, despite the recommendations of the Israeli military to the political level that the war had accomplished what had to be accomplished, and all that remained was destruction, which affected the lives of civilians more than the military.

He added: "By reading the terms of the ceasefire agreement, it can be said that it includes a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Strip, allowing the return of Palestinians to the northern Strip without inspection, with the start of providing humanitarian aid and reconstruction plans."

“Despite the destruction of Palestinian lives, there is steadfastness and high morale,” he continued, noting that there are still some signs of hope, indicating that prolonging the war was not in Israel’s or the Palestinians’ interest. But the final result shows that Hamas is still leading the Strip, and this may play a major role in the next stage.

Mansour stressed that the return of the displaced to their homes, even if they were destroyed, is an affirmation of the adherence to the right to life, the right to survival, and the right to continue.

The occupation was unable to impose a defeat on the resistance forces

In turn, academic and researcher in Israeli affairs Dr. Muhammad Halsa stressed that talk of a Palestinian victory, no matter how large, cannot match the size of the sacrifices made by the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip in the context of the ongoing destructive war. However, it cannot be denied that the occupation, despite all this devastating war, has not been able to impose a defeat on the resistance forces that ultimately forced it to negotiate with them and make concessions to them.

Halsa pointed out that it is still too early to talk about the final results of this war, as we are still in the negotiations phase, which is an important part of the rounds of war.

He said: "We can extrapolate some results now, but they are not final, as we have to wait for the outcome of the upcoming rounds of negotiations, which may return us to square one, that is, to the atmosphere of war again."

He added: "From the Israeli perspective, Netanyahu was unable to recover the prisoners through military force, and was ultimately forced to negotiate with Hamas, even though he had previously stated that it would not be part of the Strip in the future. Today, he was forced to negotiate with it to release the prisoners."

In the political framework, Halsa explained that Hamas is still the main force imposing its presence in the Gaza Strip, albeit weakly, and no other party has been able to impose a rule to administer the Strip in isolation from Hamas’s partnership.

The resistance inflicted heavy losses on Israel and plunged it into a war of attrition.

He stressed that the resistance was able to impose a clear position, telling the Israelis and mediators in the first rounds of negotiations that they would not be able to recover the prisoners by force. The resistance was also able to stand firm, inflict heavy losses on Israel and drag it into a long-term war of attrition.

He pointed out that Israel, despite the extent of the destruction that befell the Strip, was unable to resolve the war militarily, and stressed that the resolution of the conflict for one party or another depends on the extent of one party's ability to impose its political will and push the other party to make concessions in its principled positions.

He added: "Despite the international support and American backing, Israel finds itself forced to make concessions and return to the formula of the deal that was proposed last May, with the difference of the very large losses it has incurred in the lives of its prisoners and soldiers, in addition to the material and economic losses, and this is an issue that will cast a heavy shadow on Netanyahu and his government internally."

He pointed out that Israeli concessions have already been made, stressing that Netanyahu is experiencing a dilemma not only with his coalition, which is trying to obstruct the deal, but also with Israeli society, which has seen the image of absolute victory that Netanyahu tried to promote to continue his open war crack.

He added: "While it is important to stop the war and the massacre that is taking place against our people in the Gaza Strip, what is more important is that the resistance ensures that Netanyahu does not return to it again after he is freed from the pressure of the Israeli interior and the desires of the American ally at the end of the first stage of the deal, and that the resistance is able to translate its steadfastness and the great sacrifices of our people in Gaza into political positions that reflect positively on the Gaza Strip and its afflicted people."

The greatest catastrophe to befall the Palestinian people since 1948

Political analyst Thaer Abu Ras from the University of Maryland considered that talking about any victory under the current circumstances is exaggerated and unrealistic.

He said: What Gaza witnessed, and the losses and destruction that followed, represents the greatest catastrophe that has befallen the Palestinian people since 1948, and will have long-term repercussions on future generations, just as we remember today the effects of the 1967 war.

Abu Ras explained that the results of this war will not show a clear victory for any party, as each party will work to heal its wounds.

However, he pointed out that the Palestinian national movement was able to achieve relative success in thwarting some major Israeli policies, most notably the "Generals' Plan" that aimed to displace the residents of northern Gaza and take full control of it.

Abu Ras added: "Israel has failed to achieve strategic gains, whether by eliminating the Hamas government or creating an alternative to it, noting that the Israeli gains were limited to symbolic successes, such as the assassination of prominent leaders such as Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh.

But he made clear that such symbolic achievements have no substantive impact on the conflict.

America and European countries align with Israel

Regarding international support, Abu Ras pointed out that the global system, led by the United States and European countries, sided with Israel and supported it politically and economically.

He explained that this support was crucial to Israel's continuation of the war, especially since its economy cannot withstand a long-term conflict without external support.

On the other hand, the Arab world, including Hamas's allies or other Arab countries, did not provide sufficient support, which weakened the movement's position.

Abu Ras stressed that Hamas has not yet succeeded in achieving a major breakthrough in terms of lifting the siege, which is the most important point.

He pointed out that this siege is likely to continue and may even become more severe in the near future, despite the possibility of achieving partial gains, such as the release of prisoners.

At the end of his interview with Al-Quds, Abu Ras stressed that this war represents a turning point in the history of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

He added: "Just as there was a different reality before this war, there will be a new reality after it, but we cannot yet fully define its features."

October 7 was a qualitative blow to the occupation and its army

In turn, the Palestinian writer Abdul Marouf, who resides in Lebanon, said that the interpretation of the concepts of victory and defeat differs greatly as a result of political, intellectual and ideological differences.

He pointed out that real victory is not measured by the number of blows received by one party, but by the extent of the impact of these blows on achieving the strategic goals of the conflict.

He added: “Victory is achieved by achieving the goals for which the military, political or intellectual movement of any political movement was launched. Victory also means preventing the enemy from achieving its goals. Victory is not measured by the number of painful blows inflicted on one of the parties, but by the extent of the impact of these blows on achieving or preventing the achievement of the basic general goal, because victory is the final outcome of the entire process of conflict when the final agreement is signed.”

Marouf stressed that victory or defeat is achieved to the extent that it serves the overall context of the conflict, positively or negatively, and within the framework of moving towards achieving the final goal.

He said: "For the Palestinians, this goal is to liberate Palestine and restore rights, and for the Israelis it is to achieve security and stability and liquidate the Palestinian issue."

Marouf explained that Operation "Noah's Flood", which was carried out by Hamas and the Palestinian factions on October 7, 2023, constituted a qualitative blow to the Israeli occupation and its army, which had always claimed that it was invincible.

He added: The operation achieved great accomplishments, most notably the capture of a large number of Israelis, and the setting of strategic goals, including: liberating Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, ensuring the cessation of attacks on Al-Aqsa Mosque, lifting the complete siege on the Gaza Strip, and opening the border crossings.

The occupation failed to achieve its goals completely.

Marouf pointed out that the response of the Israeli occupation, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, was a comprehensive war of extermination against the Gaza Strip, which aimed to crush Hamas, eliminate its existence, and release the Israeli prisoners.

He said: "Despite the great destruction that befell the Strip, and the assassination of a number of resistance leaders, in addition to more than one hundred and fifty thousand martyrs, wounded and missing, the occupation failed to achieve its goals completely, as Hamas is still present in the Strip, and not all Israeli prisoners have been released.

Marouf stressed that victory in this conflict is not achieved in one round, but through the accumulation of points and victories over the long term.

Marouf concluded by saying, “The current stage calls for a deep reading of the recent Gaza war from a cumulative perspective, while emphasizing that the Palestinian people will not stop their struggle to regain their rights, regardless of the challenges and immediate results.”

The conditions of victory are measured by the imposition of a surrender agreement.

Dr. Riyad Al-Aila, Professor of Political Science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza, stressed that military experiences prove that the conditions of victory are measured by imposing a surrender agreement or military control over the enemy’s territory.

He pointed out that Operation "Noah's Flood" was the beginning of this process, which led to the following results:

Steadfastness: The steadfastness of our people in the Gaza Strip, despite the flood of killing and destruction, led to the failure of the Zionist plan to displace our people outside the Strip.

Changing priorities: One of the achievements of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” is that the people of Gaza, after 15 months of working with the Al-Aqsa Flood, moved away from thinking about the goal of liberating Al-Aqsa, and rather about returning to their destroyed homes in the north and south of the Strip, which were removed from the population map.

UNRWA's exit: The operation resulted in UNRWA being removed from its work in the refugee camps in Jerusalem, the capital of the State of Palestine, and being considered a "terrorist organization" according to the Zionist term.

Steadfastness despite destruction: Despite the destruction of infrastructure and superstructure, the division persists, with some trying to maintain control over the sector, even if it has become a desert of rubble and buried bodies that will take years to recover.

All the reconstruction promises remained ink on paper, especially after the repeated Israeli aggression from 2008 until 2023.

Mixed pain and joy: The tears that streamed from the eyes of the bereaved, children and elderly combined joy and tears together, after the announcement of the cessation of the massacre, despite the continued bombing by aircraft and artillery until the implementation of the agreement next Sunday. The hope was to find the remains of the families that were removed from the civil registry, perhaps their bodies would be discovered before they were devoured by dogs and cats.

About a quarter of a million people were killed, wounded and missing.

Total destruction: The operation destroyed all infrastructure, including schools, universities, hospitals, and institutions, and left the ground to preserve the occupation’s prisoners, while the massacre on the surface of the earth affected trees, stones, and people.

Human losses: The Strip lost nearly a quarter of a million people between martyrs, wounded and missing, and the number of prisoners increased threefold to more than twenty thousand, with the total destruction of the camps, cities and villages of the Strip, especially the camps that constitute a symbol of the right of return according to the decision to establish UNRWA.

Destroying the future: What was built over 76 years in the Strip was completely destroyed, forcing its residents to start over after returning to their homes in cities and camps.

Spread of corruption: The situation has led to an increase in the number of greedy traders and murder gangs, adding further suffering to the people of the sector.

Dr. Al-Aila concluded by saying: The concept of victory in this war remains confined to the framework of Palestinian steadfastness, despite the heavy losses inflicted on the Strip, considering that Gaza paid a heavy price in confronting the Israeli war machine, which places new burdens on the Palestinians in their path towards regaining their national rights.

The people of the Gaza Strip are the biggest losers

In turn, Wadih Abu Nassar, an expert in Israeli affairs, confirmed that it is not possible to talk about victories in the recent war between Israel and the Palestinian factions, pointing out that the vast majority of parties have suffered heavy losses, although the degrees of loss vary from one party to another.

He believed that the biggest loser was the Palestinian people, especially those whose lives were lost by the thousands, if not the tens of thousands.

Abu Nassar added: Our people in the Gaza Strip are the biggest losers, as their lives, homes and properties have been destroyed.

He pointed to the suffering of the Israeli detainees, who lived in harsh conditions, and many of whom were killed during their detention.

Abu Nassar stressed that Israel is also a loser; despite its military strength, it was unable to impose its will. It is also a loser because it was forced to negotiate with Hamas.

The biggest winner here is Donald Trump.

He added: Hamas is also a loser, as it has lost many of its capabilities, and instead of releasing all the prisoners, only hundreds of them will be released, and they have paid a heavy price for that.

Abu Nassar pointed out that the biggest winner here is Donald Trump, and the biggest loser is Joe Biden. It is clear to everyone that without Trump's efforts, there would have been no deal.

He stressed that the vast majority of players are losers, although some promote the matter as if it were a victory or an achievement.

Abu Nassar concluded his statement to Al-Quds by saying: “There is no doubt that neither Egypt nor Qatar nor any of the mediators or the American administration have succeeded in reaching a serious deal so far. And if there is a deal, it is full of holes and loopholes that indicate that the situation will remain tense on the Palestinian-Israeli front in the near future.”