Breaking the political deadlock in Lebanon and Syria, an indicator of a bright Arab East

After two years, two months and two weeks of political deadlock and the vacancy of the presidency in Lebanon, and the failure of the Lebanese parties to elect a president for the Lebanese state, finally a new president for the country was elected after the parliament voted in the second round with 99 votes, and in conjunction with the second centenary of the establishment of the Lebanese state, represented by President (Joseph Aoun), on whom international consensus and agreement also appeared. Here I want to focus insistently on the appropriate timing for success in overcoming the problem of the absence of a president for the state, which is undoubtedly a sensitive timing linked to the climate of geopolitical developments in the entire region, especially after the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, and the establishment of the unity of the arenas, which is the term launched by the resistance supported by Iran, as well as the repercussions of the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in the southern suburb of Lebanon and their role in reducing and limiting Hezbollah’s military capabilities.

The situation was also linked to other changes represented by the overthrow of the ruling Baath Party in Syria, represented by the Assad family for 53 years in Syria. Unfortunately, this event was one of the main reasons for the success of the Lebanese parliament in electing a president of the state. Of course, this is related to the fact that Hezbollah was dominating the sovereignty and will of the Lebanese state, and on several axes, including the army and sovereign decisions, the most important of which is domination of the central and fateful decision of the state in peace or war. This domination includes capturing the freedom of the Lebanese people themselves to make decisions. Here, it is worthy and important to draw attention to an important point in the speech of the elected president (Joseph Aoun), in which he did not mention the tripartite equation that dominated the political scene in Lebanon, i.e. the equation of the people, the army, and the resistance. Here, we find that President Joseph Aoun pledges in his speech his direction towards adopting a policy of positive neutrality in Lebanon. It is also noteworthy that he omitted the phrase “resistance” from the inaugural speech he delivered in the Lebanese parliament, which also refers to the overthrow of Hezbollah. I also want to point out here that timing is important in resolving the political impasse in Lebanon, especially after the success of the revolution in overthrowing The ruling Baath regime in Syria, after reducing and limiting the capabilities of the Iranian militias in Syria and Lebanon, which we still clearly see that Iranian politicians are threatening to seek to restore their influence in Lebanon and Syria again.

In the latter, i.e. Syria, we hear their statements, i.e. the Iranians, about the possibility of establishing a force of one hundred and twenty thousand fighters from the Shiites and Alawites in Syria, and seeking through them to overthrow the force of the Levant Liberation Committee that toppled President Bashar al-Assad, and thus restore Syria to the Iranian embrace once again, which prompted Ahmed al-Sharaa to take the security decision represented by pursuing the remnants, and following them in all parts of the Syrian geography and working to arrest them in prisons, to ensure that they do not succeed in implementing any dangerous plans, including their inability to create a crisis of sectarian confrontation between the components of the Syrian people in order to seize the rule of Syria by themselves once again.

Here we notice the geopolitical developments taking place in the region, especially at an important time before Trump came to power and was officially inaugurated as President of America. I personally believe that Trump’s hidden policy in this period, which is witnessing rapid developments, is consistent with his goals and his promise to the Lebanese people to end the war. This was achieved before he arrived at the White House and took power on January 20. These are apparently deliberate steps on his part so that his rule would not be linked to a war in the region. This is clearly evident in Syria, which is now entering a phase of building and establishing a new state that is completely different from the period of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, and the trend from a socialist economy to capitalism and a free economy, that is, from a system influenced by socialist Russia to an open global system.

The statements of the elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in his inauguration speech were clear, as the characteristic of this speech and its focus revolved around liberating Lebanon from foreign domination and working to establish a new, free Lebanon, just as is the case in the transition from the past Syria to the stage of establishing a new Syria, meaning that the two countries should have a strong, sovereign army that protects their borders and the sovereignty of their state, by building a national army and not an army dominated by militias supported from abroad. This appeared clearly in Joseph Aoun’s speech and his determination to establish a strong Lebanon, especially after he confirmed that it came after a major, strong earthquake in the Middle East, with which regimes changed and alliances cracked and borders may also change because of it. Joseph Aoun also pledged to protect Lebanon from Israeli threats and that the Lebanese army alone will monopolize weapons in the Lebanese state. He also promised to establish a strong relationship with the Arab countries, in addition to establishing diverse strategic relations and partnerships with the countries of the Levant and the Arabian Gulf, and African countries. He pledged that Lebanon would practice a policy of positive neutrality and build integrated and cooperative economies. Regarding the positive neutrality that he referred to in his speech, what is meant by it is that the new stage in Lebanon means implementing Its priorities are to restrict weapons to the state, and to achieve this by starting with disarming Hezbollah, achieving peace and stability, removing all forms of weapons from south of the Litani River, and strengthening the presence of the state army in this region, and later in all Lebanese territories. Of course, in the new Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa also seeks to unify all the existing factions and armies, including the Syrian Democratic Army, within a single national army that is responsible for protecting Syria’s sovereignty and the security of its territories.

Here all these developments come in parallel with the arrival of Donald Trump to power, and in a period in which the new American president promised during his election campaign that he would work to stop the war, and thus the Trump era will be the foundation of a new era in the countries of the Arab Levant from a stage of war to a stage of peace and the establishment of democratic systems and economic revival and construction in the new Middle East, which will be free of manifestations of dictatorial rule and the corruption associated with it, because no progress can occur without political reform, economic reform and reform in state institutions that suffer from corruption and administrative flabbiness. For example, in Lebanon, some parties had control over the state, and appointments were made from party members to positions according to the party quota, and were not based on the principle of competence and excellence or what is commonly called the right man in the right place, and this resulted in many debts on the state, and was also accompanied by an exaggerated waste of public money, at the expense of the public interest of the Lebanese state, not to mention the suspicions of stealing the money of the Lebanese people in banks that gave loans to some parties who did not repay them, and thus this incorrect financial policy led to the inability of banks On giving depositors their money, and in this regard, President Joseph Aoun stressed the issue of Lebanese banks and the necessity of protecting depositors’ money in Lebanon.

I believe that now in the Arab East, and especially our region, the Levant in the past, we have become at a crossroads of liberation from the hegemony of Iran and its support for Iranian militias on the lands of the Arab East, as well as getting rid of its support for parties associated with it, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi Hezbollah, and the Syrian Hezbollah since the nineties of the last century. Therefore, after reducing its military influence in the region, especially in Lebanon and Syria, I believe that Iraq will also be on this path of liberating it from the dominance of these Iranian militias and Iranian influence in all the joints of the Iraqi state. It is also on the path to resolving the political impasse, God willing, and extending the sovereignty of the state and its army over all its lands, as we notice unfortunately that Iran’s agents and militias and the parties supported by it in these countries in particular are involved in the process of smuggling weapons, and thus putting an end to the danger of smuggling the scourge of drugs, which has become a trade that is practiced, in addition to the serious issue of recruiting Arab youth and throwing them, unfortunately, into its militias. It is also noted unfortunately that the Turkish state, for example, in Syria played an important role in arming Syrian youth. And recruiting them to fight instead of it, represented by the Syrian National Army with the aim of occupying cities in northern Syria such as Afrin, Jarablus and Al-Bab. Turkey is now seeking for the National Army to reach the city of Kobani and enter the east of the Euphrates, as well as the military conflict in the city of Manbij, where the region is witnessing the continuation of the raging battles until today, until a political settlement is reached, considering that the battles are raging without the National Army succeeding in completely controlling some cities, especially east of the Euphrates River, in addition to the SDF continuing to control the Syrian oil fields, but it is also worth noting that there is another danger represented by the possibility of the collapse of the Tishreen Dam, which provides water and energy to the region, and this is of course due to the battles taking place there.

All these clashes are likely to disrupt the integration of the Syrian Democratic Army with the new Syrian Army, despite the agreement between Mazloum Abdi and Ahmed al-Sharaa on the integration and unification of the army. Will the Syrian army unite to contribute to repelling any threat of foreign occupation that threatens the security and sovereignty of the new Syrian state? Today, we are facing a sensitive transitional phase for the new Lebanon and the new Syria, which will draw new maps of influence for a new, bright Arab East, God willing. All current geopolitical signs and developments indicate this final direction, especially with the arrival of Trump to power in America, who believes in economic solutions after a ceasefire and ending the ongoing and raging wars in the region.

I hope that the region will enter the new Arab Middle East phase, bright with security, peace and comprehensive economic recovery.