Dr. Qusay Hamed: The US administration sees the deal as a strategic interest to achieve progress in regional issues and enhance Israel’s position in the Middle East

Firas Yaghi: Increasing US pressure to conclude the deal before Trump enters the White House may make Netanyahu’s attempts to obstruct it futile

Suleiman Basharat: The escalation of Israeli popular anger may force Netanyahu to make concessions to achieve a deal that guarantees a ceasefire, even if it is partial

Dr. Saad Nimr: Netanyahu is trying to buy time, and if a ceasefire is implemented for 60 days, resuming the war will be a difficult option for Israel

Nizar Nazzal: Netanyahu seeks to reach short-term truces during which a number of Israeli detainees will be released, followed by a new military escalation

Adnan Al-Sabah: Talk about the imminent conclusion of a prisoner exchange deal and the cessation of aggression on Gaza is nothing more than an illusion...and the region is facing a long war of attrition

With talk of an imminent prisoner exchange deal and ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, things stand at a crossroads between positive indicators that point to the possibility of reaching an agreement soon and increasing pressures on the parties, and deep doubts about Israel’s seriousness in making the required concessions.

In separate interviews with “I,” writers, political analysts, specialists, and university professors believe that international efforts, especially from the United States and mediators such as Qatar and Egypt, show great interest in achieving tangible progress before US President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House, indicating that the US administration sees the deal as a strategic interest in achieving progress in regional political files and strengthening Israel’s position in the Middle East.

However, they believe that ambiguity remains the master of the situation, as the deal faces multiple obstacles, most notably the fundamental difference between the vision of the Palestinian resistance, which insists on a complete withdrawal from the Strip and a cessation of the war, and the orientations of Israel, supported by the United States, which seeks to impose conditions of surrender on the Palestinian people. They point out that Israeli intransigence, represented by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to obstruct the deal, raises fears of the failure of the negotiations, but Netanyahu’s intransigence may clash with the increasing internal pressure on him from the Israeli street and opposition leaders, while they pointed out that the failure of the deal may lead to the continuation of a long-term war of attrition, not only in Gaza, but may extend to other areas, in light of the expected Trump administration policy.

Warning against excessive optimism about the deal being close

Dr. Qusay Hamed, a professor of political science at Al-Quds Open University, points out that current data indicate that a prisoner exchange deal and a cessation of the war in the Gaza Strip are close, but Hamed warns against excessive optimism, given previous experiences that witnessed failures in reaching an agreement that would end the escalation comprehensively, which calls for caution when dealing with these developments.

Hamed explains that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing increasing pressure from leaders of Israeli political parties, who criticize the usefulness of the continued presence of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip, and consider remaining in Gaza a risk that threatens the lives of Israeli prisoners held by Hamas, in addition to the possibility of incurring long-term human losses in the ranks of the Israeli army.

In addition to internal pressures, Hamed believes that the administration of US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump are increasingly pressuring Netanyahu to conclude the deal before the latter takes office on the twentieth of this month.

Hamed points out that Trump sees the deal as an interest in achieving progress in regional political files, including strengthening Israel's position in the Middle East.

Hamed points out that Netanyahu appears to have received assurances from the US administration that he will not allow Hamas to return to rule the Gaza Strip, in addition to establishing a fait accompli in the West Bank, including imposing Israeli sovereignty and annexing parts of the West Bank. Trump will also be generous in providing support to Israel in this context, which encourages Netanyahu to move forward with the exchange deal.

Hamed points out that Netanyahu is counting on increasing American support to attract more Arab countries towards normalization with Israel, and to strengthen its regional position. In parallel, he seeks to deal with the Iranian file seriously, including restricting its regional influence through its arms in Lebanon and Yemen, and preventing the development of its nuclear program. For this reason, he may push towards achieving the deal.

Hamed points out that the ideal scenario for Israel includes concluding a deal that releases the largest possible number of Israeli prisoners held in Gaza, while maintaining an Israeli military presence in strategic areas of the Strip. Israel also seeks to ensure freedom of military action inside Gaza at any time it deems appropriate, and to prevent Hamas from returning to power or controlling the Strip, but this faces major field obstacles.

Hamed explains that Israel is trying to implement a model similar to its agreement with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, whereby it postpones a complete withdrawal from Gaza as long as possible, while continuing limited military operations to ensure that Hamas's military capabilities are undermined.

Hamed confirms that Hamas is still adhering to its conditions, which include a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, a cessation of the war, and an exchange of prisoners. Hamas also demands that the reconstruction of the Strip be guaranteed, the displaced return to their areas, and the necessary humanitarian aid be brought in.

Hamed points out that Hamas seeks to ensure a gradual Israeli withdrawal during the various stages of the agreement, so that the Israeli military presence in the Strip ends with the end of the third stage of the agreement.

If the negotiations fail, Hamed believes that pressure will continue on both sides, especially from international mediators and the US administration, to complete the deal.

Hamed stresses that the world, especially the United States, has an interest in ending the war, ensuring a prisoner exchange, and Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, in order to achieve stability in the region, but that depends on Israel’s willingness to make concessions, and on the ability of international mediators to bring the two parties’ points of view closer together.

A pivotal American role in pushing Netanyahu's government towards an agreement

Writer and political analyst Firas Yaghi believes that there are strong indications that a prisoner exchange deal and ceasefire in the Gaza Strip will be concluded within the next few days.

Yaghi points out that American pressure, whether from the Biden or Trump administrations, plays a pivotal role in pushing Netanyahu’s government towards an agreement, along with the efforts of mediators, especially Egypt and Qatar, to facilitate the talks.

According to Yaghi, the deal is expected to be comprehensive and divided into three interconnected stages. The first stage includes a ceasefire for a specific period, the release of a group of Israeli prisoners, in exchange for the entry of humanitarian aid and the beginning of the return of displaced persons to the northern Gaza Strip.

According to Yaghi, negotiations will continue during this stage to reach the second stage, which includes the release of additional batches of Israeli prisoners in exchange for a gradual Israeli withdrawal from the Strip, leading to the third stage, which aims to end the war completely and rebuild the Strip.

Yaghi stressed that Egypt and Qatar play a vital role in providing guarantees to ensure that the three stages are linked together, in a way that achieves the goals of both parties.

However, Yaghi points out that Hamas is still adhering to its basic demands, including a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Strip, a final cessation of the war, and guarantees for the return of the displaced and reconstruction.

He points out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to obstruct the deal, because he believes that ending the war in Gaza could harm his ruling coalition, and leaders from within the government, such as Bezalel Smotrich, are demanding a plan to impose a comprehensive blockade on Gaza after Trump enters the White House, with harsh Israeli conditions on the entry of humanitarian aid, and proposals to deport residents of the northern Gaza Strip.

However, Yaghi explains that increasing pressure from the Trump administration, which wants to achieve tangible progress and conclude the deal before he enters the White House, may make Netanyahu's attempts to obstruct the deal futile.

Yaghi points out that Trump's envoy to the region has begun to realize that Netanyahu is the party obstructing the negotiations, not the Palestinian resistance.

He stresses that the Trump administration has priorities that go beyond supporting Israel, especially with Trump’s “America First” slogan, which reflects a decline in enthusiasm for providing foreign aid, whether to Israel or any other party. In light of the internal crises in the United States, such as the Los Angeles fires, pressure is increasing on Netanyahu to move forward with the deal to ease the burden on the US administration.

Yaghi points out that the Israeli opposition and some heads of the security services informed the Trump administration that Netanyahu is responsible for obstructing the deal, and with the widespread popular support for the return of the Israeli prisoners, Netanyahu finds himself in a difficult position internally and externally.

Yaghi warns that the failure of the deal will lead to disastrous results, most notably the continuation of the war, and perhaps Israel making an implicit decision to abandon its prisoners in Gaza. This scenario may lead to an unprecedented military escalation, and is likely to lead to a permanent occupation of the Gaza Strip, which greatly worries the Israeli army.

Yaghi points out that the flexibility shown by the Palestinian resistance, and its efforts to remove pretexts from Netanyahu's hand, enhances the chances of the deal's success. However, its success remains dependent on the ability of international parties and mediators to overcome the obstacles placed by Netanyahu to achieve his political interests.

Understandings between international mediators and Hamas to overcome obstacles

Writer and political analyst Suleiman Basharat believes that recent developments on the ground indicate that a ceasefire agreement is close to being signed between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Basharat explains that there are a set of basic indicators pushing in this direction, most notably the messages conveyed by Qatar to the Israeli side, which include clear signals from Hamas about the possibility of bringing viewpoints closer together on several points of contention, including the mechanisms for implementing the agreement and the list of Israeli prisoners held in Gaza.

Basharat believes that there are clear understandings between international mediators and Hamas to overcome obstacles that may hinder the negotiations.

Basharat points out that the videos showing the Israeli prisoners in Gaza had a major impact inside Israel, which put Netanyahu before two options: either to go ahead with the agreement to avoid the anger of the Israeli street, or to continue his intransigence, which could lead to internal and regional escalation.

Basharat believes that the Israeli street, despite the ideological control imposed by Netanyahu in previous stages, has now reached a point where it cannot tolerate the continuation of the crisis without tangible results, as the escalation of Israeli popular anger may force Netanyahu to make concessions to achieve a deal that guarantees a ceasefire, even if it is partial.

Basharat points out that US President-elect Donald Trump is striving to enter the White House after ending the war in Gaza or achieving tangible progress on the ceasefire, and this approach seems to have the support of his administration, which sees ending the current conflict as a necessary step to translate Israel’s military achievements into tangible political results.

He points out that statements by American officials confirm that political solutions are the preferred option instead of military solutions, especially with the Trump administration's insistence on releasing Israeli prisoners as an essential part of the agreement.

According to Basharat, Israel is now moving towards preparing to confront long-term strategies related to the Iranian file.

Basharat believes that the Israeli focus on air strikes in Yemen is part of preliminary exercises aimed at preparing for long-range strikes, including the possibility of targeting the Iranian nuclear program.

Basharat points out that Israel seeks to resolve other issues, such as the Gaza issue, before focusing on its long-term strategic goals, which include confronting the Iranian threat.

He points out that the messages conveyed through the Qatari mediator reveal that the differences related to the stages in implementing the agreement have been overcome, indicating the possibility of reaching a comprehensive agreement that will be implemented in stages, stressing that Israel's acceptance of linking the stages to each other represents an important achievement at this stage.

If an agreement and deal fails, Basharat believes that this will pose a major dilemma for the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government. For the US administration, failure will make it appear weak and politically naive, which Trump, who is putting his weight behind the success of these negotiations, will not allow. As for Netanyahu, failure could lead to major changes in the Israeli public mood, which could weaken him politically and threaten the gains he has achieved over the past years.

Basharat believes that Netanyahu realizes that achieving a successful deal represents an opportunity to strengthen his political control and secure his political future, especially after his success in reshaping Israeli institutions and society to serve his agenda.

Basharat points out that all indicators point towards the crystallization of a ceasefire agreement soon, but the success of this agreement depends largely on the ability of the Palestinian resistance to establish its basic demands, and on the flexibility that Israel may show in overcoming the remaining obstacles. However, the fate of the agreement remains subject to regional and international developments and to the calculations of Israel and America regarding their strategic interests.

Efforts to speed up the deal to present it as a gift to Trump

Dr. Saad Nimr, a professor of political science at Birzeit University, expects that a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip may be completed within the next ten days.

Nimr explains that the main reason behind rushing to conclude the deal is to present it as a gift to the US President-elect, Donald Trump, before he takes office on the twentieth of this month, as Netanyahu seeks to exploit this deal politically to show that it was completed under his supervision and in conjunction with Trump’s arrival to the White House.

Nimr points out that the United States is playing a major role in this deal, as Trump sent a special envoy to follow up on the negotiations in Doha, which reflects the great American interest in completing them. The Biden administration, in turn, is pressuring Netanyahu to end the war and conclude an agreement that shows the seriousness of American moves in the region.

Nimr confirms that Israel agreed to the deal in principle, but Netanyahu set a new condition two days ago to extend the negotiations, with the aim of completing them at a time that suits his political interests. This extension shows Netanyahu’s desire to gain time to present the deal as a major political achievement before Trump enters the White House.

According to Nimr, according to what leaked about the negotiations, the deal includes a 60-day ceasefire, during which the first phase of the agreement will be implemented, which includes the release of some Israeli prisoners in exchange for opening the crossings to allow the entry of humanitarian aid, the beginning of the return of displaced persons to northern Gaza, and the release of Palestinian and Israeli prisoners. During this period, negotiations will be held regarding the second phase, which includes the release of the remaining Israeli prisoners in exchange for a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, with arrangements to end the war.

Nimr points out that Israel is seeking to divide the deal into three stages, which reflects Netanyahu’s desire to minimize concessions that might be seen as weakness domestically, while at the same time securing gradual political gains.

Nimr explains that recent Israeli reports have confirmed that eliminating the Palestinian resistance is impossible, noting that Hamas has about 20,000 fighters, in addition to 4-5,000 fighters from other factions. Despite the presence of the Israeli army in most areas of the Strip, the resistance continues to launch rockets, which confirms its ability to withstand and continue to control the land.

Nimr points out that the Israeli army itself submitted reports to the political leadership, most notably to Prime Minister Netanyahu, questioning the usefulness of continuing the war without a clear vision or specific goals, in light of the daily attrition to which the Israeli forces are exposed.

Internally, Netanyahu is facing great pressure, as recent Israeli polls indicate that 80% of Israelis support the return of prisoners held by the Palestinian resistance. Nimr believes that the failure of the deal will expose Netanyahu to severe criticism, especially from the Israeli street, which has begun to grow restless with the continuation of the war without tangible results, according to what Nimr explains.

Nimr believes that if the ceasefire is implemented for 60 days, resuming the war will be a difficult option for Israel, especially since international and local pressure will increase to end the escalation. He pointed out that if the deal fails, the war will continue, but without achieving strategic goals for Israel other than killing civilians and destroying more infrastructure, which will exacerbate Netanyahu's political challenges domestically.

Signs of dismantling the mines and knots that were obstructing the deal

Nizar Nazzal, a researcher specializing in Israeli affairs and conflict issues, believes that Israel has begun to receive positive messages from Hamas, indicating that the mines and knots that were hindering reaching an agreement have been dismantled. He pointed out that Hamas is practicing a calculated political tactic by escalating pressure on Netanyahu and putting Israel in a corner.

He explains that the Israeli street is currently boiling, and threatens to escalate if a truce is not reached by the twentieth of this month, which coincides with Donald Trump entering the White House.

Nazzal believes that this timing is not a coincidence, but rather part of the Palestinian resistance strategy that aims to embarrass Israel and put the ball in its court.

According to Nazzal, the coming period will likely witness the reaching of a temporary truce agreement, as Israel, which is facing enormous internal pressures, has begun to respond to the signals coming from Doha.

Nazzal believes that the first phase of the agreement will focus on humanitarian aspects, such as the return of the displaced and the entry of aid, in addition to the release of prisoners. However, the biggest obstacle to the negotiations lies in the insistence of the Palestinian resistance on a complete ceasefire and a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, which Israel strongly rejects. He pointed out that Netanyahu is suffering from a significant decline in his popularity amidst the escalation of anger within the Israeli street and the army.

Nazzal addresses the recent statements of the Israeli Minister of War, which indicate that Israel does not want to end the conflict completely, but rather aims to implement a temporary truce to relieve internal pressure.

Nazzal believes that Netanyahu seeks to follow a strategy based on "intermittent conflict", where short-term truces are reached during which a number of Israeli prisoners are released, followed by a new military escalation. He believes that Netanyahu is trying to imitate the West Bank experience in Gaza, by targeting the Palestinian resistance militarily and intelligence-wise.

According to Nazzal, this approach reflects a long-term Israeli strategic vision aimed at stripping the resistance of its most powerful files, most notably the prisoners’ file.

Nazzal explains that 80% of Israelis support reaching a truce, which increases the pressure on Netanyahu. If the negotiations fail, the Israeli street may witness a wide explosion, especially since Netanyahu no longer has enough room for political maneuvering.

Nazzal believes that failure to reach an agreement could lead to the formation of a new parliamentary bloc led by Naftali Bennett, which would threaten Netanyahu's electoral depth.

Nazzal confirms that reaching a comprehensive agreement faces major complications due to Israel's refusal to commit to a complete ceasefire and a total withdrawal from Gaza. In contrast, Hamas is exploiting internal pressure on Netanyahu to achieve political and humanitarian gains.

Nazzal believes that Israel will be forced to agree to some humanitarian aspects, such as the entry of aid and the return of the displaced, but it will remain committed to the policy of intermittent attacks.

Nazzal expects that the next stage will witness a temporary truce during which urgent humanitarian issues will be addressed, but without declaring a complete end to the war.

Nazzal points out that if the agreement fails, Gaza may face a new military aggression, while Israel will witness an escalation in the street and pressure on the government.

Nazzal addresses the main challenges in Israel's commitment to implementing the terms of the truce, especially a complete ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza, which the Palestinian factions are demanding.

Nazzal believes that the recent statements of the Israeli Minister of War aim to complicate the negotiations by threatening not to hand over the Gaza Strip to any external or internal party.

Nazzal believes that Netanyahu is seeking to exploit the truce to present himself as a hero to his audience, while continuing to carry out military attacks to weaken the Palestinian resistance.

The next stage, according to Nazzal, will witness an intermittent conflict centered around the release of Israeli prisoners in exchange for military tactics aimed at undermining the strength of the resistance.

No real indications of an imminent swap deal

Writer and political analyst Adnan Al-Sabah believes that talk about the imminent conclusion of a prisoner exchange deal and a halt to the war in the Gaza Strip is nothing more than an illusion, pointing out that there are two completely contradictory visions regarding this deal: the first is the vision of the Palestinian resistance, which seeks to achieve a prisoner exchange, a halt to the war, lifting the siege, and the withdrawal of the occupation from Gaza, in contrast to the vision of the Israeli occupation, supported by the United States, which considers the deal a means of imposing conditions of surrender on the Palestinian people.

Al-Sabah asserts that concluding a deal in the Palestinian sense, that is, a deal that meets the conditions of the resistance, means that the goals of the war declared by Israel and the United States have completely failed.

Al-Sabah points out that signing an agreement in which the resistance is a party is an implicit admission by the occupation of the failure to achieve its goals, which makes achieving such a deal out of reach.

Al-Sabah believes that the region is heading towards a long-term war of attrition that will move from one region to another, stressing that neither party seems ready to raise the white flag.

Al-Sabah points out that releasing the Israeli detainees according to an exchange deal will not lead to stopping the war, but will deepen the suffering of the Palestinian people and increase the escalation of the Israeli aggression.

Al-Sabah expects that Donald Trump's entry into the White House will lead to a state of regional escalation, noting that Trump does not seek to achieve peace as much as he relies on the language of force and intimidation.

Al-Sabah believes that Trump faces two options in dealing with the Palestinian issue. The first is to exert intense pressure on the Gaza Strip, either by completely stopping aid or participating in military action directly or indirectly. The second option is to provide large political grants to Israel, such as full recognition of the West Bank as the lands of “Judea and Samaria” and belonging to the Jews, which would enhance Israeli ambitions in the region. It is not expected that Trump will exert any kind of pressure on the occupying state. On the contrary, he will continue his absolute support for it, within the framework of his policies that are biased towards Israel and seek to enhance its regional hegemony.

Al-Sabah believes that Trump's expected policy will reignite conflicts in the region and exacerbate crises, not only in Palestine, but in other regions such as Lebanon and Yemen, where the Trump administration aims to ignite multiple fronts to achieve its interests.