ARAB AND WORLD
Fri 20 Dec 2024 8:43 am - Jerusalem Time
Israeli raids on Yemen: a live ammunition rehearsal in preparation for striking nuclear reactors
Major General Wassef Erekat: Israel deals with different theaters of operations as testing grounds to test the capabilities of its army and develop its military strategies
Dr. Aql Salah: Targeting Yemen is part of an Israeli policy aimed at striking all parties that provide support to the Palestinian resistance
Muhammad Abu Allan Daraghmeh: The Israeli government uses American and European support to justify its military aggression in the Middle East
Dr. Jamal Harfoush: Yemen provides a geographically complex operational environment similar to Iran, which makes Israeli attacks part of a “field experiment”
Talal Okal: Striking Yemen can be considered an “operational rehearsal” and is part of a broader strategy to pave the way for a direct confrontation with Iran
Fayez Abbas: A step to confront the only force that continues to bombard Israel with ballistic missiles.. and has nothing to do with planning to strike Iran
In a move that reflects the complexity of the regional scene, Israel launched air strikes on Yemeni sites, targeting infrastructure in Hodeidah, Sanaa and other areas, a few hours after Yemeni shelling of the Ramat Gan area, amid warnings that the Israeli strike was part of messages and a simulation of an expected strike on Iran.
Writers, analysts, experts and specialists believe, in separate interviews with “I”, that this escalation against Yemen comes within a broad context indicating that Tel Aviv is dealing with Yemen as an arena for operational experiments aimed at testing the readiness of its army to confront similar scenarios in Iran.
They point out that this escalation is not limited to the military dimension, but is also linked to Israel's attempts to establish new rules of engagement in the region, whether by deterring Yemeni support for the Palestinian resistance, or as part of a more comprehensive strategy targeting the axis of resistance to focus on the head of the axis, Iran.
Israel treats various theaters of operations as testing grounds.
Retired Major General Wassef Erekat, a military and security expert, confirms that Israel deals with the various theaters of operations, whether in Palestine, Lebanon or Yemen, as testing grounds to test the capabilities of its army and develop its military strategies.
Erekat explains that the recent Israeli attacks on Yemen come within this framework, taking advantage of the operational similarity with scenarios targeting distant targets such as Iran, where aircraft are used to strike sites that require refueling in the air and maneuvering over wide areas.
Erekat points out that there is a fundamental difference between targeting Yemeni sites and Iranian nuclear reactors. While Israel focuses on bombing ports, power stations, and oil depots in Yemen, bombing Iranian nuclear reactors requires overcoming major obstacles, including advanced Iranian air defenses, widespread radar systems, and the vast geographical areas over which Iranian nuclear facilities are spread.
Erekat asserts that these factors increase Israeli domestic doubts about the air force’s ability to carry out an effective strike without direct American support, despite the intensive training conducted by the Israeli army, including long-range maneuvers over the Mediterranean Sea last October, which included simulations of refueling and striking distant targets.
Erekat explains that Yemen succeeded in complicating the Israeli calculations after it bombed two military sites in Jaffa, where the Israeli Minister of Education admitted that a school in Ramat Gan was hit, and that the hit was accurate, as the explosive warhead of the missile caused widespread destruction, contrary to the Israeli army’s account that claimed that an interceptor missile hit the school.
He points out that the Israeli "Arrow" system was unable to intercept Yemeni missiles effectively, which represents a weakness that worries the Israeli military leadership and limits its ability to escalate attacks against Yemen without facing costly responses.
Erekat points out that the recent Israeli bombing targeted the Yemeni infrastructure intensively, including the port of Hodeidah, Al-Salif, Ras Issa, and the south of the capital Sana'a, where the Dhahban and Haiz stations, fuel tanks, and power stations were bombed. The bombing resulted in nine martyrs and three wounded, according to Yemeni data.
He believes that the Yemeni response to these attacks was clear and decisive, as he stressed that these attacks will not deter the Yemenis from "performing their religious and moral duty" in supporting the Gaza Strip and responding to the Israeli massacres, while the Yemeni forces stressed the continuation of their military operations until the Israeli aggression on Gaza stops and the siege is lifted.
Erekat believes that the Israeli army may resort to expanding the scope of its operations inside Yemen, including targeting vital strategic sites and assassinating prominent leaders and officials. However, the decisive Yemeni responses and its insistence on continuing to support the Palestinian resistance pose a major challenge to Israel and further complicate its military options in the region.
Israel is racing against time to weaken Yemen
Writer and political researcher Dr. Aql Salah confirms that the Israeli raids on Yemen at dawn on Thursday carry intertwined strategic dimensions, aiming to deal painful blows to Yemen because of its honorable position in supporting the Palestinian people, and the Gaza Strip in particular, in light of the war that has been ongoing since October 7, 2023.
Salah explains that Israel is racing against time to weaken Yemen, which played a pivotal role in targeting the Israeli depth with qualitative missiles and heavy weapons, which confused the Israeli leadership and raised great concern within political and military circles in Tel Aviv.
Dr. Salah believes that Israel seeks, through these strikes, to form a deterrent force to stop the Houthis from targeting the Israeli depth with qualitative missiles.
Salah points out that Netanyahu, who is trying to enhance his image as a national hero in the Middle East, considers the Yemeni file to be one of the most prominent challenges he currently faces, as Yemen, with its firm position and support for the Palestinian cause, has become a real threat to Israel, especially after the missiles that targeted sensitive sites deep inside Israel at dawn on Thursday, causing great damage.
Salah explains that targeting Yemen comes within the framework of an Israeli policy aimed at striking all countries or parties that provide support to the Palestinian resistance.
Salah points out that Yemen, along with other Arab countries such as Lebanon and Iraq, has shown unprecedented support for the Palestinian cause during the current war, which prompted Israel to intensify its attacks in an attempt to weaken these fronts.
He points out that Israel is benefiting from the international coalition launched by the United States of America in December 2023, under the name "Guardian of Prosperity", which includes European countries, as this coalition aims to deter Yemen and prevent it from continuing its support for the Palestinian people.
Salah points out that Yemen was subjected to strikes by that coalition, and several military strikes were carried out on Yemeni targets with the aim of limiting its ability to target commercial or military ships heading to Israel.
Salah confirms that these alliances and repeated targeting have inflicted great losses on Yemen, but they have also inflicted great economic damage on Israel, European countries, and the United States.
Salah explains that Yemen's continued support for the Palestinian resistance represents a challenge to Israel, which seeks through these alliances to isolate and weaken Yemen.
Salah believes that Netanyahu is adopting a policy of separating files to gradually address regional challenges. At first, he succeeded in separating the Lebanese file from the Palestinian issue by signing agreements with Lebanon. Today, Netanyahu is trying to repeat the same scenario with Yemen and Iraq, in preparation for striking Iran without any reactions from its allies in the region.
Salah points out that Netanyahu is trying, through escalating strikes on Yemen, to send deterrent messages to all parties, stating that any targeting of Israel will be met with harsh reactions. Netanyahu is also trying to silence all open fronts against Israel, including Yemen, to ensure the achievement of his strategic goals of striking Iran without any regional resistance.
Salah asserts that Israel is exploiting these strikes to achieve internal and external goals. On the one hand, it seeks to cool the Israeli domestic arena by sending messages to Israeli society that its leadership is capable of protecting national security and responding to any threats. On the other hand, it is trying to send deterrent messages to countries and parties opposed to it, stating that anyone who dares to target Israel will pay a heavy price.
Salah points out that Netanyahu wants, by targeting Yemen, to enhance his image as a strong leader capable of controlling regional situations, especially in light of the increasing challenges he faces internally and externally.
Israel seeks to strengthen its position as the "regional policeman"
Writer and expert on Israeli affairs, Muhammad Abu Allan Daraghmeh, believes that the recent Israeli strike on Yemen is not just a "rehearsal" for striking Iran, noting that Israel has carried out targeting operations against Iran many times before.
Draghmeh explains that this strike comes within the framework of an integrated Israeli policy that relies on strengthening its position as the “regional policeman,” by targeting regional countries, including Yemen, Iran, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank.
Draghmeh points out that this aggressive Israeli policy comes with direct support from the United States, and with the assistance of some European Union countries, which strengthens Israel's regional position.
Draghmeh stresses that these expected attacks against Iran are not directly linked to political changes in Washington, noting that Israel carried out operations targeting Iran during the term of US President Joe Biden, which indicates that Israeli aggressive operations are based on long-term strategic plans and are not a reaction to political changes or specific events.
Draghmeh explains that the Israeli attack on Yemen at dawn on Thursday, according to Israeli sources, was part of pre-planned plans and not just a reaction to the launch of the ballistic missile that targeted the Israeli depth and reached the center of occupied Palestine.
Draghmeh expects that Israel may use the airspace of Iraq and Syria to carry out its military operations against Iran, which indicates its continued exploitation of the security vacuum in the region after the destruction of the Syrian regime's military capabilities following the control of the new regime in Syria.
Draghmeh believes that the Israeli strikes on Yemen come under the pretext of confronting ballistic missiles and drones launched from Yemen in support of the Palestinian resistance, but Israel's main goal is to stop these attacks, which have become a tangible threat to its national security.
Regarding future scenarios, Draghmeh indicates that Israel will continue to target Yemen as part of its plan to confront what it considers the “growing phenomenon” of Yemen’s support for the Palestinian resistance.
Draghmeh points out that the Israeli bombing of Yemen is not an isolated incident, but rather part of a comprehensive strategy targeting the countries of the region, under the pretext of protecting Israeli security and deterring missile attacks, as these operations reflect the aggressive Israeli policy based on expanding the circle of conflict in the region and targeting parties that support the Palestinian resistance.
Draghmeh points out that Israel is using American and European support to justify its military aggression in the Middle East, in an attempt to establish a new deterrence equation in the face of regional powers that challenge its influence.
Part of a broader strategy related to regional power balances
Professor Dr. Jamal Harfoush, Professor of Scientific Research Methods and Political Studies at the University of the Academic Research Center in Brazil, confirms that the Israeli attacks on Yemen are not merely isolated operations or directed exclusively against the Houthis, but rather represent part of a broader strategy related to the regional balance of power, especially in the context of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.
Harfoush believes that these strikes have multiple dimensions, which may include testing Israel's operational capabilities and sending deterrent messages to Iran's allies in the region.
Dr. Harfoush believes that Yemen provides a geographically complex operational environment similar to Iran, which makes the Israeli attacks part of a “field experiment” to test its operational readiness in such circumstances.
Harfoush explains that these operations aim to assess the capabilities of the Houthis, who are supported by Iran, in dealing with advanced air attacks, in addition to collecting and analyzing accurate information about the defense systems and networks of missiles and drones that the Houthis possess, capabilities similar to those of other Iranian allies.
Harfoush points out that these airstrikes represent an opportunity for Israel to assess their impact on disrupting missile and drone networks, reflecting a readiness to strike similar targets in Iran if necessary.
Harfoush stresses that the timing of these attacks plays a crucial role, as they came during a transitional period between an outgoing US administration and a new one led by Donald Trump.
Harfoush points out that Israel exploited this political vacuum to establish new facts on the ground without facing major objections from the US administration, especially since the Biden administration was more reserved in supporting large-scale Israeli operations.
Harfoush explains that the Israeli strikes carry a veiled message to Iran and its allies in the region, that Israel is prepared to go far in deterring any threats, and that it is capable of carrying out qualitative operations in distant areas, which enhances its position as a regional power that does not compromise with its opponents.
Dr. Harfoush stresses that these operations cannot be isolated from the larger regional conflicts, through which Israel targets the axis of resistance more broadly.
Harfoush believes that the attacks may be a preliminary step for greater intervention in other areas such as Syria or Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias are active.
Harfoush points out that these operations may be part of a comprehensive strategy to curb Iran's influence in the region, exploiting the growing tensions with Tehran.
He explains that Yemen is a meeting point for regional and international interests due to its strategic location on the Red Sea and its importance as a vital shipping lane.
Harfoush confirms that the continuation of Israeli strikes may include targeting Yemeni ports, missile and drone manufacturing centers, military bases and weapons depots, with the aim of disrupting the Houthis’ ability to carry out long-range attacks against Israeli and naval targets.
Regarding the Houthi response, Harfoush points out that the Houthis may use the tools available to them, such as targeting Israeli ships or those belonging to its allies in the Red Sea.
Harfoush points out the possibility of carrying out naval attacks or launching missiles and drones at commercial and military ships. The Houthis may also expand the scope of the confrontation to the Israeli depth in coordination with Iran or its allies, which could constitute a dangerous development in the conflict.
Harfoush did not rule out that the Houthis would exploit the conflict to expand the scope of the confrontation with other countries, such as Saudi Arabia or the Emirates, to increase pressure on the regional alliance supporting Israel.
Regarding the position of the international community, Harfoush believes that international organizations and major countries may move to contain the escalation by imposing diplomatic restrictions on Israel or the Houthis, or by launching mediation initiatives.
However, Harfoush doubts the success of these efforts in the absence of the parties’ willingness to sit at the negotiating table, especially in light of the increasing regional tensions.
If the escalation in Yemen is linked to preparations for a direct confrontation with Iran, Harfoush believes that the region may witness greater movements that include Syria, Iraq, or even the Arabian Gulf.
He explains that Iran may increase its military and intelligence support for the Houthis, leading to a greater escalation in Yemen, and the conflict may extend to include the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which will lead to a global energy crisis.
Harfoush believes that the Israeli escalation in Yemen is not a passing event, but rather part of a broader regional and international equation.
Harfoush asserts that the possible scenarios indicate that the region may be on the cusp of a new phase of conflict, whether through direct military escalation or through a comprehensive confrontation involving regional and international powers, but the decisive factor remains the extent of the readiness of international and regional parties to intervene to contain the situation, or to let it escalate as part of a major game between the great powers.
Netanyahu is trying to exploit any opportunity to open new fronts of war
Writer and political analyst Talal Okal asserts that the Israeli strikes on Yemen represent a strategic step that goes beyond merely targeting the Houthis or responding to missile launches, noting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks through them to send multi-dimensional messages that serve his political ambitions and are a prelude to broader steps targeting Iran.
Awkal explains that Netanyahu is trying to exploit any opportunity to open new fronts for war, especially in light of the near end of military operations and the war on Gaza.
Okal points out that Netanyahu continues to promote the idea that the “Israeli army has a long arm” and does not tolerate any threats. However, the noticeable shift in Israel’s strategy is clearly evident in its increasing focus on Iran, which represents Netanyahu’s first and most important target, both because of its nuclear program and its role in supporting the axis of resistance.
Awkal points out that targeting Iran represents an opportunity for Netanyahu to declare a "strategic victory" over the most important allies of the axis of resistance, which will ensure that he strengthens his position internally and externally.
Okal believes that Netanyahu is well aware that moving to strike Iran may be welcomed by US President-elect Donald Trump, and perhaps with direct American participation if he returns to power, especially since the Biden administration has expressed reservations about the expanded Israeli plans.
Awkal believes that the move to target Iran will not be limited to achieving Israel's security goals only, but rather carries within it personal political motives for Netanyahu, who seeks to secure his political future and delay any repercussions that may threaten his continuation in power.
Okal explains that Netanyahu is facing enormous legal pressure due to the corruption trials, in which the Israeli attorney general has rejected his repeated requests to postpone the court sessions.
Awkal asserts that Netanyahu is seeking to use the war on Iran as a pretext to postpone his trials, after previous security pretexts failed to convince the judicial authorities.
Okal believes that military escalation against Iran may impose a new reality that will force the attorney general and the courts to accept requests for postponement, giving Netanyahu a greater opportunity to focus on strengthening his political power and securing his domestic position.
Awkal points out that the Israeli strikes on Yemen are not just traditional military operations, but rather carry important strategic messages. On the one hand, they reflect Israel’s readiness to expand the scope of its operations in the region, and on the other hand, they pave the way for greater escalation against Iran.
Awkal explains that these strikes come within what can be considered an "operational rehearsal" to test readiness and preparedness for a wider confrontation.
Awkal points out that Netanyahu seeks, through these steps, to strengthen Israel's position as a regional power that does not compromise with its opponents, and to achieve long-term strategic goals related to reshaping the balance in the region in Israel's favor.
Awkal points out that the Israeli strikes on Yemen are part of a broader strategy aimed at paving the way for a direct confrontation with Iran.
Awkal believes that these operations have political and personal dimensions for Netanyahu, who seeks to strengthen his political standing and secure his future in light of the increasing internal and external pressures. However, regional escalation may carry great risks, not only for the stability of the region, but also for Israel itself, in light of the possibility of strong reactions from Iran and its allies.
The bombing of Yemen has nothing to do with planning to strike Iran
Israeli affairs expert Fayez Abbas believes that the Israeli attacks on Yemen are not related to planning to strike Iran or to the expected political changes in the United States after the election of Donald Trump as president. Instead, these attacks come in the context of confronting the direct threat posed by Yemen, as the only force that continues to bombard Israel with ballistic missiles.
Abbas points out that the recent Israeli bombing, which took place at dawn on Thursday, resulted in extensive damage, as Yemeni ballistic missiles fell on the city of Ramat Gan, destroying a school and sending more than three million Israelis into shelters.
Abbas explains that this escalation from the Yemeni side prompted Israel to launch military strikes for the third time in a short period against Houthi sites.
He points out that Israel is intensifying its military operations against Yemen at this stage, targeting infrastructure bases in major cities such as Hodeidah and Sanaa, as the Israeli bombing aims to weaken the Houthis' military capabilities and disrupt their ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones that have become a tangible threat to Israeli security.
Abbas points out that experts on Yemeni affairs believe that these strikes, despite their strength and the damage they cause, will not deter the Houthis from continuing to bomb Israel.
Abbas believes that this challenge puts Israel in a complex confrontation, as it faces an opponent determined to continue attacks despite increasing military pressure.
Abbas points out that the United States launched air strikes on Houthi bases a few days ago, reflecting American-Israeli coordination in confronting threats coming from Yemen.
Abbas points out that this coordination may develop to include Israeli-American support for the Yemeni forces opposing the Houthis, with the aim of opening an internal front against them and igniting a civil war in Yemen.
Abbas asserts that this possible scenario aims to undermine the Houthis’ control over the areas they control, by strengthening the forces opposing them and preoccupying them with internal conflicts, which would reduce military pressure on Israel and disrupt their ability to target it.
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Israeli raids on Yemen: a live ammunition rehearsal in preparation for striking nuclear reactors