Dr. Jamal Harfoush: There are opportunities to build a new political system that reflects the aspirations of the Syrian people and establishes a democratic system

Firas Yaghi: The Syrian opposition must seize the historic opportunity to build a new political system based on pluralism and democracy

Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem: The goal is to divide Syria into small states based on ethnic or sectarian foundations in line with the American and Israeli visions

Dr. Qusay Hamed: Russia and Iran gradually abandoned the Assad regime after it lost its strategic value as an ally in the Middle East

Nabhan Khreisha: The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime opens the door to scenarios, including Israel's attempts to promote the division of Syria

Samer Anabtawi: The fall of the Assad regime will lead to increasing pressure on the Palestinian resistance to accept agreements with Israel

With the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, after fifty years of Baath Party rule, the Syrian Republic, which witnessed an unprecedented historical event, is entering a new phase whose features are still unclear until now, but its repercussions will be great for the region.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, political analysts and university professors believe that this historic transformation was caused by multiple local and international factors, which resulted in the collapse of a regime suffering from a decline in its military and political capabilities, and the erosion of the support base of its main allies (Russia and Iran), in light of economic pressures and internal crises. With the erosion of the regime’s ability to control, new challenges have emerged for Syria, which is facing a period of political and security vacuum.

They believe that the next phase may witness potential conflicts between different factions, with the risk of slipping into chaos, which requires concerted efforts from the Syrian opposition and the international community to manage the transition peacefully, and avoid violence and chaos. At the same time, there is a need to rebuild institutions and organize governance, with the necessity of ensuring that the country does not disintegrate into conflicting entities.

Despite the surrounding risks, the writer, analysts and university professors confirm that there are opportunities to build a new political system that reflects the aspirations of the Syrian people, based on pluralism and democracy, and that the success of this endeavor may open new horizons for the country and return it to the global scene, provided that the priority remains the interests of the homeland and the citizen.

International and regional transformations have had a profound impact on the situation of the Assad regime.

Professor Dr. Jamal Harfoush, Professor of Scientific Research Methods and Political Studies at the University of the Academic Research Center in Brazil, confirms that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime so quickly is due to the overlap of several internal and external factors, explaining that these factors included the internal exhaustion of the regime, the loss of popular support, and regional and international transformations.

Harfoush points out that more than a decade of ongoing war has drained the Syrian army and weakened its human and financial resources.

He explains that the Assad regime's reliance on loyalist militias instead of the regular army played a major role in eroding its defensive capabilities.

Harfoush points out that the Assad regime's repressive policies, coupled with rampant corruption, have increased popular anger, leading to a decline in loyalty even among its traditional supporters. These conditions have been exacerbated by economic and living crises that have made it difficult for the regime to maintain its internal stability.

Harfoush explains that international and regional transformations have severely affected the situation of the Assad regime, pointing to the noticeable decline in support from traditional allies such as Russia and Iran.

Harfoush attributes this decline to the economic and diplomatic pressures imposed on Russia due to its intervention in Ukraine and international sanctions against it, which prompted it to reduce its military and economic commitments in Syria.

Harfoush points out that Iran, which is suffering from a stifling economic crisis as a result of US sanctions and the deterioration of its domestic economy, has focused its security and political priorities on Iraq and Yemen, which has led to a reduction in its direct support for the Syrian regime.

Harfoush confirms that coordination between the armed opposition factions was a decisive factor in the fall of the Assad regime.

He explains that the ability of these factions to control strategic locations, such as Homs and Damascus, hastened the collapse of the regime and its loss of control over the ground.

Regarding the repercussions of the fall of the Assad regime, Harfoush explains that the Syrian interior may face major challenges, most notably the political vacuum, which may lead to conflicts between opposition factions and armed groups, in addition to the difficulties of rebuilding the state and the destroyed infrastructure.

Regionally, Harfoush points to the potential for regional imbalance to be destabilized, with neighboring countries such as Türkiye and Israel intervening to advance their interests.

Internationally, Harfoush stresses that the emergence of a new Syrian government may redraw regional and international alliances, with the possibility of opening channels of communication with the West.

Harfoush believes that the day following the fall of the Assad regime will be full of challenges and opportunities, most notably the security vacuum that may arise as a result of internal conflicts between different factions, the need for massive investments in reconstruction, in addition to the need for comprehensive plans to return refugees and displaced persons and ensure their stability.

Harfoush points out the importance of transitional justice, stressing the need to hold accountable those involved in crimes without resorting to revenge to ensure the unity of society.

In contrast, Harfoush explains that there are opportunities to build a new political system that reflects the aspirations of the Syrian people and establishes a democratic system.

Harfoush points to the possibility of international re-engagement, as the fall of the Assad regime may push the international community to support reconstruction and return Syria to the global scene.

Harfoush believes that Syrian and international civil society must come together to ensure a peaceful and stable transition in Syria, warning of the risk of sliding into chaos or protracted conflicts.

Harfoush stresses that managing the transitional phase wisely can contribute to achieving sustainable regional and international stability.

Withdrawing Russian cover from Bashar al-Assad's regime

Writer and political analyst Firas Yaghi believes that the main reason for the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime is the withdrawal of cover from him by Russia, as Moscow did not intervene to defend the regime at critical moments.

Yaghi explains that this shift is due to agreements reached between Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the United States of America, especially after the Syrian regime’s intransigence and rejection of all political initiatives, including the participation of the opposition in government.

Yaghi explains that the Assad regime has shown intransigence in dealing with all proposed solutions, especially those calling for the participation of the Syrian opposition in the government. The regime has also rejected proposals related to reconciliation with Turkey and attempts to find solutions to the deteriorating economic and social situation in Syria.

Yaghi also points out that rampant corruption and deteriorating economic conditions have further complicated the Syrian scene, making the continuation of the situation a harbinger of more bloodshed and escalation of violence.

Yaghi points out that Assad's allies, especially Russia and Iran, preferred to lift the cover on him after realizing that his continuation would lead to a new cycle of violence and bloodshed in Syria. This decision came as a result of the allies' unwillingness to get involved in more Syrian blood, especially at this stage, with the Assad regime's intransigence in accepting political solutions.

Regarding the Syrian opposition, Yaghi stresses that it must exploit the historic opportunity that has now been given to it to build a new political system based on pluralism and democracy.

Yaghi stresses the importance of establishing a system that respects the rights of the Syrian citizen regardless of his religion or sect, considering that establishing such a system will have a major impact not only on Syria, but on the Arab region as a whole.

However, Yaghi explains that the Syrian opposition faces major challenges, most notably the lack of homogeneity among its various components and the differences in their ideas and ideologies.

Yaghi points out that changes in the opposition's way of thinking may open the way for establishing a new political system capable of unifying Syria, but this matter still depends on the coming days.

He stresses that Syria needs a new political system based on a constitution that establishes the concept of pluralism.

Yaghi believes that the success of the Syrian opposition in achieving this will lead to the establishment of the first democratic pluralistic Arab regime in the region, which may open the way for positive influences on other Arab regimes.

Yaghi stresses that the situation in Syria is sensitive and complex, emphasizing that the country's future depends largely on the opposition's ability to invest in this historic moment.

Yaghi points out that forming a democratic, pluralistic system that respects the law and includes everyone could turn Syria into an inspiring model for the region.

Yaghi warns that failure to achieve this could lead to the country sliding into chaos and becoming a failed state, which will increase the suffering of the Syrian people and exacerbate existing crises.

Systematic handover of cities by the Syrian army to armed groups

The writer and political analyst Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem confirms that what happened in Syria is not a war in the traditional sense, but rather an organized coup agreed upon between the United States, Israel and Turkey, with the approval of the Syrian army, and it is a systematic process of handing over cities by the Syrian army to armed groups that he described as "terrorist."

Suwailem points out that this process comes within a broader framework to reshape the region in a way that serves the interests of the major powers, most notably Israel.

Suwailem points out that the Syrian army, for the first time in its history, is leading a coup not in favor of democratic forces, but in favor of armed groups that have been supported internationally and regionally.

Suwailem explains that the scene looked like an organized withdrawal, with cities and sites being handed over to armed groups with little resistance.

Suwailem believes that there was a prior agreement between America, Israel and Turkey to hand over the cities to the so-called Syrian opposition, explaining that Bashar al-Assad was aware of the details of this plan, but was unable to confront it, and then informed his Iranian and Russian allies of what was happening after it was too late.

Regarding the absence of Russian and Iranian intervention, Suwailem explains that as allies of the Assad regime, they were not in a position to provide support, given that events were being managed in their final form.

Suwailem confirms that Russia and Iran were not informed until after the agreement had ended, which made any attempt to intervene futile, as even Hezbollah was aware that matters had been settled.

Suwailem believes that the main goal of this operation is not only to overthrow the Assad regime, but also to divide Syria into small states based on ethnic or sectarian foundations, in line with the American and Israeli vision.

Suwailem explains that this plan seeks to re-engineer Arab societies to create harmony between the concept of state and nation, so that Israel appears as a natural state in the region, as it is based on the same idea as a Jewish religious state.

Suwailem stresses that this approach is not new, but rather part of the broader American-Israeli project to reshape the Middle East.

Although getting rid of the Assad regime may be seen as an achievement by some Syrians who suffered from the regime’s undemocratic practices, Suwailem believes that the next day will be much more difficult, as division will weaken Syria as a unified state and open the door to internal conflicts that threaten the stability of the entire region.

Suwailem stresses that the success of this plan depends on the ability of the Syrians to confront it. If the United States and Israel fail to divide Syria, this will represent a major setback for the Zionist project.

Suwailem warns that this scenario requires Arab awareness and political will to confront these plans that target the unity and stability of the region.

Suwailem stresses that the next stage requires more efforts to preserve Syria's unity, because the American-Israeli plan is not limited to Syria only, but extends to include other Arab countries, with the aim of enabling Israel to completely dominate the region.

An unprecedented turning point in the modern history of Syria

Professor of Political Science at Al-Quds Open University, Dr. Qusay Hamed, confirms that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime represents an unprecedented turning point in the history of modern Syria, especially after more than fifty years of rule by the Baath Party and the Assad family.

Hamed explains that many factors, accumulating over the past ten years, contributed to this downfall, which came as a result of the Assad regime gradually losing control over large parts of the country.

According to Hamed, the Assad regime began to falter since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, as the regime was subjected to successive blows, whether from the armed opposition that controlled large parts of the country, or as a result of its main allies being preoccupied with their own issues.

Hamed points out that the last year has witnessed an acceleration in the collapse of the regime due to Russia, Assad's strongest ally, being preoccupied with its war with Ukraine, which has reduced its ability to support him militarily and politically.

According to Hamed, Hezbollah also played a vital role in supporting Assad, but it was preoccupied for more than a year with its war with Israel, which caused great losses to its leadership and military structure, including the assassination of a number of its prominent leaders and its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

Hamed explains that Hezbollah has become in dire need of human and military cadres to strengthen its efforts against Israel, which has led to a reduction in its support for the Syrian regime.

According to Hamed, Iran, another strategic ally of the Assad regime, has also come under increasing pressure as a result of tensions with Israel, which has repeatedly targeted Iranian sites in Syria, weakening its military structure there.

Hamed confirms that these pressures, in addition to Iran's preoccupation with the Israeli file, have greatly affected Tehran's ability to support the Assad regime.

Hamed explains that the regular Syrian army has been suffering for years from a decline in its military capabilities and weak control over the ground.

Hamed points out that the Assad regime has lost control over vast provinces, while its control is limited to Damascus and its countryside. This military retreat has prompted some Syrian army leaders to abandon the regime and not enter into deadly confrontations with opposition forces, which has contributed to accelerating the collapse of the regime.

Hamed explains that geographical control in Syria has become distributed among multiple parties, including the armed opposition, Turkey, Russia, and Kurdish forces, which has made the regime unable to regain its influence in most parts of the country.

Hamed confirms that Russia and Iran have gradually abandoned the Assad regime, after the regime lost its strategic value as an ally in the Middle East.

Hamed explains that Russia is now focused on protecting its interests in Syria, without committing to supporting the regime, which is no longer able to regain control or achieve stability.

Regarding what could happen in the next phase, Hamed points out that Syria stands at a crossroads, where the greatest danger lies in the possibility of the country entering a state of chaos and internal conflicts.

Hamed stresses that avoiding this scenario requires the Syrian opposition to work on reuniting the country, forming specialized committees to manage the affairs of government, and rebuilding state institutions.

Hamed points out the importance of controlling the security situation inside Syria, with a focus on establishing civilian structures to manage the country's affairs away from military polarization.

Hamed explains that the Syrian opposition, through its control of the ground during the past two weeks, has shown positive signs of its intention to preserve the Syrian institutions and work towards a peaceful transfer of power, and its determination to keep the Syrian Prime Minister temporarily until the institutions of power are handed over, which is a positive thing in controlling the situation.

Hamed believes that there are a number of challenges facing the Syrians, especially with regard to the transition from a revolutionary state to a state state, the features of the transitional phase and the role that the previously influential countries (Turkey-Russia-Iran) will play in this phase? And what will be the nature of the next ruling system? (Secular or with a religious reference, especially Islamic)? And they certainly face challenges related to the nature of the relationship with their surroundings (Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and undoubtedly Israel) and certainly the reconstruction of Syria.

Hamed describes the current situation in Syria as a watershed moment in the country’s history, noting that a well-organized transition could lead to Syria’s stability and reconstruction, but Hamed warns that failure to do so could lead to escalating chaos and conflict, making Syria’s future even more uncertain.

Hamed stresses that the success of the transitional phase depends on the ability of Syrians to prevent internal fighting and work to achieve political stability.

Hamed stresses the importance of building democratic institutions capable of leading Syria towards a better future, away from chaos and polarization.

The fall of the Assad regime is the cumulative result of deep and multiple reasons.

Journalist Nabhan Khreisha believes that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime was not a spur-of-the-moment event, but rather came as a cumulative result of deep and multiple reasons, ranging from the deteriorating economic conditions, organized crime, and the decline in international and regional support for the regime, all the way to radical shifts in the balance of power on the ground.

Khreisha explains that for years, the Assad regime has been facing a state of continuous deterioration on all levels. The Syrian economy has witnessed an unprecedented collapse, as the value of the Syrian pound has collapsed against the dollar, and chaos has spread in the markets, amid the spread of corruption and organized crime.

Khreisha points out that the Assad regime relied on annual profits estimated at $2.4 billion from illegal activities, but this was not enough to save it from bankruptcy. This economic deterioration was accompanied by the regime losing Iran’s ability to support it as a result of international sanctions and the deterioration of its economic situation.

Khreisha points out that despite Arab attempts to return the regime to its regional environment by restoring its membership in the Arab League in 2023, Assad exploited these efforts to consolidate his power instead of improving the internal situation.

Khreisha explains that the Assad regime rejected any real steps towards reform, which led to the outbreak of new protests calling for its overthrow. This coincided with the armed opposition’s challenge to the Syrian army, which had become weak and disintegrated, with the pro-regime militias becoming stronger than the army itself.

Khreisha points out that Russia was unable to intervene to prevent the collapse of the Assad regime, despite having two important military bases in Syria. The options available to Moscow were limited, especially with its preoccupation with the Ukraine war since 2022, which made it unable to allocate military resources to support Assad without affecting its other fronts.

According to Khreisha, Russia was facing a strategic dilemma: either sacrifice its influence in Syria or retreat in Ukraine, which effectively made it abandon Assad.

Khreisha asserts that Iran faced major obstacles in supporting the Assad regime, most notably the intensive surveillance by American and Israeli satellites, which prevented the effective transfer of weapons. With the sudden and rapid collapse of the Syrian army, Iran found itself unable to provide any effective assistance, which exposed its weakness and that of its allies in the region.

Khreisha believes that the fall of Assad has major repercussions on the balance of power in the Middle East. On the one hand, the collapse of the regime represents a strong blow to the Iranian axis, as the influence of its allies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, declines under the pressure of Israeli strikes. On the other hand, the United States and Israel strengthen their regional positions, which leads to a shift in the balance of power in their favor.

At the same time, Khreisha points out that the fall of the Assad regime opens the way for complex scenarios, most notably Israel's attempts to exploit the situation to promote the division of Syria.

Khreisha cites statements by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar, who called for the formation of "minority alliances" and strengthening relations with the Kurds and Druze, reflecting the long-standing Israeli desire to divide the region into sectarian and religious states.

As for the day after the fall of the regime, Khreisha is cautiously optimistic. The Syrian opposition is showing positive intentions to preserve the unity of the country, with ideas being put forward to form a transitional governing body or a military council that includes various parties. This step aims to manage the transitional phase, organize elections to form a civilian government, and write a new constitution.

However, Khreisha points out that the challenges are great, especially in light of the differences between the opposition components and the effects of political and sectarian divisions.

Khreisha stresses that the opposition's success in forming a pluralistic and democratic political system is the key to Syria's stability and future.

Khreisha stresses the importance of establishing a system based on citizenship and law, far from sectarian and religious affiliations. Despite the difficulty of the task, this system, if achieved, could be a model to be emulated in the Arab world, which could lead to fundamental changes in regional political systems.

Khreisha points out that the future of post-Assad Syria depends largely on the opposition’s ability to overcome its differences and build an inclusive political system.

Despite the challenges, Khreisha believes that the fall of the Assad regime gives Syrians a unique opportunity to rebuild their country on new foundations, which may represent a glimmer of hope for a people who have long suffered from the ravages of war and tyranny.

Iran and Russia are the biggest losers from the fall of the Assad regime

Writer and political analyst Samer Anabtawi believes that the biggest losers from the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime are Iran and Russia, after they lost control over one of their most important allies in the region, while the main beneficiaries are Israel, Turkey and the United States, who will strengthen their role and influence in the region in light of this new reality.

According to Anbatawi, the reasons that led to the fall of the Assad regime so quickly are complex and linked to several political, economic and security factors, as the Syrian state remained, throughout the period of Assad’s rule and the Baath Party, in direct conflict with American and Israeli policies in the region, which led to it being exposed to severe pressure from both parties in various fields.

Anbatawi explains that Syria chose a policy of self-sufficiency and rejected American policies that might open up areas such as loans and aid, which prompted it to join the axis of resistance and defiance. These policies led to increased pressure on the Assad regime by major powers, especially the United States.

Anbatawi points out that the Syrian crisis worsened with the outbreak of the devastating civil war, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of victims and human and material losses, in addition to the severe economic siege that greatly affected the regime. In addition, there were international reports on violations of human rights, freedoms and social justice in Syria, which contributed to isolating the regime on the international scene.

According to Anbatawi, these factors had a direct impact on the internal instability of the Assad regime, especially in light of the tense regional situation, starting from October 7, 2023, and the region’s involvement in military wars with Israel and its allies.

On the other hand, Anbatawi explains that Iran and Russia, two major allies of the Assad regime, believe that continued support for Assad will require many years of military and political confrontation.

Anbatawi points out that Iran was under great pressure due to its nuclear file and developments in the region, while Russia was preoccupied with the repercussions of the war in Ukraine. These factors led to a decline in the support of these two countries for the Assad regime, which contributed to accelerating its collapse.

Anbatawi believes that the fall of the Assad regime has major repercussions on the regional level. The Syrian regime, which is an essential part of the axis of resistance, will leave a vacuum that Israel may exploit to strengthen its presence deep inside Syria. This situation may be used by the Hebrew state as a pretext to enter deeper into Syria under the pretext of confronting what it considers threats from the Syrian opposition, claiming that it may contribute to the escalation of conflicts between armed factions and push towards the division of the Syrian state.

Anbatawi expects that the collapse of the Assad regime will have clear effects on the Lebanese situation, as it may enhance the state of chaos there, in addition to its repercussions on the Palestinian cause and support for the resistance.

Anbatawi points out that the Assad regime has always been supportive of the Palestinian cause, and its fall will lead to increasing pressure on the Palestinian resistance and its position to accept agreements with Israel. In addition, the effects may include other regions such as Iraq and Yemen, where the axis of resistance is suffering from a decline in positions due to these developments.