Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem: Investing in the current reality requires a unified Palestinian leadership and a cohesive political system capable of steadfastness and confrontation

Sawsan Surour: The general scene confirms that Israel does not intend to stop the war on Gaza as long as the situation is in Netanyahu's favor and prolongs the life of his government

Ramzi Odeh: Leaked information indicates the approval of an Israeli plan to build seven settlement blocs in the northern Gaza Strip while imposing a siege on it

Najah Muslim: The current scene indicates a fully-fledged liquidation project... and regional conditions are in crisis

Dr. Suleiman Abu Sitta: The current phase is a turning point in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict amid unstable regional and international conditions

While waiting for Donald Trump to take over the reins of power in the United States on January 20, there are no signs on the horizon that the war on the Gaza Strip will soon end, despite the hopes that some have pinned on the possibility of generalizing the Lebanese model on the Gaza front, and despite the repeated Israeli violations that threaten the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah.

The political and diplomatic movement that the region witnessed, and which was crowned by a ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel that went into effect on November 27, has stopped and there are no American mediators in the region. What has arrived from the United States is the threat that Donald Trump issued even before he entered the White House, while the movement was limited to Palestinian-Palestinian meetings between the Fatah and Hamas movements in Cairo, which resulted, as was unofficially announced, in an agreement to form a community support committee to manage the affairs of the Gaza Strip.

Political writers and analysts who spoke to “I” believe that reaching a ceasefire on the northern front between Lebanon and Israel spread cautious optimism about the possibility of transferring this understanding to the Gaza Strip, but the picture quickly became clear, as the motives that made Israel agree to stop the fighting in the north do not necessarily apply to the Gaza Strip.

The current stage is complex, difficult and cannot wait.

The writer and political researcher, Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem, said: Reading the current stage and what the situation is leading to requires an accurate understanding of several basic points of focus.

He explained that the current Palestinian situation, with its fragmentation and division at the level of strategies, and the lack of a real ability to confront the American-backed Israeli project under Arab cover, hinders investment in the results of current events, whether for the sake of steadfastness or to open new horizons.

Suwailem pointed out that investing in the current reality, whether it is difficult or holds opportunities, requires a unified Palestinian leadership and a cohesive political system capable of withstanding, confronting and investing in political changes. However, he expressed his concern about the absence of this situation in light of the current divisions, which makes the expected results largely dependent on the speed of Palestinian action to resolve these issues before it is too late.

He explained that the current stage is complex and difficult, and cannot wait, given the rapid regional and international changes.

He added: The Arab regime, through its positions towards the war, has proven that it does not want to enter into a direct conflict with Israel and the United States, which is not new historically, but the problem lies, according to Suwailem, in the negative role played by some Arab regimes, which almost become involved in the Israeli-American plan, which represents a dangerous loophole in the Palestinian ability to invest regional variables in favor of the Palestinian cause.

The necessity of adopting a new Palestinian approach that goes beyond the state of waiting

Suwailem stressed that unless the Palestinian political system rebels against this Arab situation with a new position that obliges the Arab world to withdraw from this gradual involvement, the Arab situation will remain a cover for greater involvement in Israeli-American plans, at the expense of Palestinian rights.

Suwailem called for adopting a new Palestinian approach that goes beyond waiting and attachment to American solutions.

He stressed the need for the Palestinian leadership to be part of a real liberation movement that resists American hegemony and confronts the Israeli narrative, which seeks to justify the policies of settlement, genocide, wars, and expansion at the expense of the Palestinians.

He explained that Israel, despite its growing fascist appearance and apparent control, is suffering internally from stifling crises that leave it in a state of weakness.

He said: "Israel is no longer the welfare state or the absolute power that it claims to be, but rather a state that is a candidate for further failure and failure, and this must constitute a strong foundation for reviving the Palestinian national state."

Suwailem stressed that the solution lies in establishing a renewed and cohesive Palestinian national state, capable of confronting Israeli plans and preventing the success of the Zionist project in liquidating the Palestinian cause.

Short-lived optimism over Gaza ceasefire after Lebanon

In turn, journalist Sawsan Sarour, an observer and analyst of the Israeli political scene, said: The ceasefire reached on the northern front between Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Israel, which came into effect on the 27th of last month, has spread cautious optimism about the possibility of transferring this understanding to the southern front, in the Gaza Strip, where the Israeli war has been ongoing for more than 418 days.

"The real picture quickly emerged," Surur added, noting that the motives that led the Israeli political system to agree to a ceasefire in the north do not necessarily apply to the south.

She pointed out that the critical and eroding military situation of the Israeli army, in addition to the fatigue suffered by the soldiers as a result of the war with Lebanon, was the main reason that prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to request a ceasefire.

Sarour stressed that this decision came despite Israel's failure to achieve the declared war goals, which Netanyahu repeatedly stated, most notably returning the Israelis who left or were forced to leave their towns on the northern border to their homes, and eliminating Hezbollah's power despite its achievement of disengagement from Gaza.

Netanyahu and the policy of intimidation and external threats

She pointed out that one of the secrets of Netanyahu's survival in power over the years, since 2009, has been the policy of intimidation and external threats. She said: "The more he succeeds in exaggerating the Iranian threat to the State of Israel, the more he succeeds in attracting the Israeli people who support him, and that is what he did this time as well, by saying that he accepts a ceasefire in Lebanon, in order to confront the greater threat, which is Iran."

Surur expressed her belief that Israeli politicians, led by Netanyahu, believe that neutralizing Hezbollah from the north on the one hand, and intensifying the bombing of Gaza on the other hand, may weaken Hamas’s negotiating position regarding a ceasefire. However, Hamas, despite showing some flexibility, still insists on a ceasefire in order to reach a deal to end the war and exchange prisoners.

She stressed that the situation in Gaza is thorny and complex, as 101 Israelis are still being held in Gaza, and Hamas still controls it, yet Netanyahu does not seem eager to stop the war there.

"The general scene confirms that official Israel does not intend to stop the war on Gaza, as long as this situation serves Netanyahu's interests and prolongs the life of his far-right government, and as long as its main concern is to distract the Israeli public and keep it away from delving into the critical questions related to the abject failure and the extent of its responsibility, especially its Prime Minister Netanyahu, for the events of October 7, 2023," Surur said.

She believed that this scene pushes towards not disclosing the clear and comprehensive Israeli vision for the Gaza Strip after the war, and continuing to deal with the Strip and its people from the perspective of the avenger of the events of the "Al-Aqsa Flood" of October 7, 2023, the avenger who continues to carry out his crimes against defenseless civilians in Gaza, without accountability or supervision.

Indications that the Israeli army intends to remain in Gaza

“Recently, it was revealed that the Netzarim corridor in central Gaza has been expanded, a permanent military base has been established, a new water line from Israel has been installed to supply the military, and a new cellular tower has been added, in a clear indication of the Israeli army’s intention to remain in Gaza for years. Not only that, but the Israeli Housing Minister Goldknopf himself has arrived to see the settlement map in Gaza,” she said.

"There are great sacrifices being made by the people of Gaza, amounting to more than 150,000 martyrs and wounded, and there are military leaders in Israel who have begun to acknowledge the policy of ethnic cleansing being carried out by the Israeli army, especially in northern Gaza. We have begun to hear the truth that the Israeli army and most of the Israeli media have concealed, voices that were in the leadership in the not-so-distant past, such as the Chief of Staff of the Israeli army and former Minister of Security Moshe Ya'alon," Surur pointed out.

She stressed that everything that is happening in Gaza is a painful and difficult labor for the birth of an independent Palestinian state. It is time for the longest occupation in the world to end, and for the Palestinian people to live honored, respected and free in their independent Palestinian state.

Internal Palestinian Consensus and Community Support Committee

She continued, saying: Perhaps the recent Palestinian rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas to form a "community support" committee to manage Gaza after the war is an attempt to build an internal Palestinian consensus that enhances the chances of consensus, especially after the real threats that appeared clearly and specifically in the statements of the Israeli Finance Minister and leader of the Religious Zionism Party, Bezalel Smotrich, that 2025 will be the year of the annexation of the West Bank to Israel. The danger is the same, whether in Gaza or the West Bank.

In contrast, Surur considered that the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court against both Netanyahu and his dismissed Minister of Defense Galant, in addition to a long secret list of officers and soldiers that began to worry the Israeli military system, and the expected decision of the International Court regarding genocide, and the isolation of Israel internationally, in addition to the internal difficulties in Israel, from societal and family disintegration, economic collapse and high cost of living, and a judicial coup, etc., meaning that internal and external pressures will all work against the Israeli state, which will contribute to hurting the Israeli government, and pressuring it to reach an end to the war on Gaza.

The situation in the Palestinian territories is extremely complex.

For his part, writer and political analyst Ramzi Odeh stressed that the situation in the occupied Palestinian territories has become extremely complex, in light of the policies of the Israeli government, which he described as “fascist,” and which is actively seeking to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians by liquidating the Palestinian cause and eliminating the two-state solution.

Awda pointed out that this government, led by the extreme right, may intensify its settlement steps in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, especially if the Donald Trump administration returns to power in the United States.

Awda warned that Israel would take measures to undermine the Palestinian National Authority by imposing a stifling political and financial siege on it. These steps aim to weaken the Authority and make it fail in managing Palestinian affairs.

In the same context, Awda expressed his belief that Israel will not actually be able to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians during the next four years, despite the extremist policies pursued by the current government.

Practical steps to complicate the two-state solution

But he stressed that Israel would take operational steps that would complicate the issue of the two-state solution by imposing a new demographic reality based on expanding the area of settlement, Judaization, and genocide, especially in northern Gaza.

In this context, Awda stressed that the formation of isolated Palestinian population cantons in the West Bank, led by local municipal authorities, would be the most that could be done by the Israelis during the current decade.

He added: "As for the Gaza Strip, leaked information that appears to be reliable clearly indicates the approval of an Israeli plan to build seven settlement blocs in the northern Gaza Strip, while imposing a siege on the Strip from the Netzarim and Philadelphi axes."

He stressed that these plans would pose a real threat to Palestinian national security and would seek to encircle the Palestinian people.

Awda said that the success of previous Israeli plans depends first on the degree of support it can receive from the next Trump administration, and second, on the success of the reconciliation understandings between Fatah and Hamas.

He added: I almost swear that if the division continues and the ability of the Palestine Liberation Organization to take over the administration of Gaza, rebuild it, and negotiate the future of the Strip is disrupted, a disaster will inevitably befall the Palestinian cause.

Systematic genocide and destruction in the Gaza Strip

For her part, Professor of International Relations and Media, Najwa Muslim, stressed that the settlement plans and the rapid Judaization in the West Bank, and the systematic genocide and destruction taking place in the Gaza Strip, reflect a clear trend towards liquidating the Palestinian cause by imposing a new reality that eliminates the dream of establishing an independent Palestinian state.

Muslim added: "The current scene indicates a fully-fledged liquidation project, but the internal crises that are sweeping Israel, in addition to the escalation of the Palestinian popular resistance, may revive the Palestinian cause internationally."

She continued: "This comes in light of the deteriorating regional situation, especially in Lebanon and Syria, and the continuation of normalization efforts with Israel under American leadership, in light of the transfer of power to President-elect Donald Trump next January."

Muslim pointed out that Trump's statements, in which he spoke about "waiting for hell," confirm the continuation of the threatening approach to support Israel and attempt to undermine the steadfastness of the Palestinians.

Muslim concluded by saying: “The current stage imposes a fateful choice: either confront the liquidation project by adopting a unified Palestinian strategy to rebuild the Palestinian state project, or accept the reality of the occupation and its continuation.”

Serious risks and broad and complex scenarios

As for the writer and political analyst, Dr. Suleiman Abu Sitta, he confirmed that the Palestinian issue is currently experiencing a new episode of the long conflict with the Israeli occupation, but this episode is characterized by grave dangers and broad and complex scenarios.

He believes that the current moment represents a critical stage in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, in light of unstable regional and international conditions.

Abu Sitta pointed out that the Palestinian arena is witnessing an escalation on several levels, whether in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, or the occupied Palestinian interior. In the West Bank, the settlement policy and attempts to isolate the Palestinians in isolated cantons continue, while the policies of the Israeli government led by the extreme right threaten further escalation, such as Ben Gvir’s statements about banning the call to prayer in mosques, which portends new confrontations with the Palestinians.

He added: In the Gaza Strip, the occupation faces a major challenge in trying to resolve the battle against the resistance. Despite achieving military progress in some areas, it is unable to completely end the resistance, and the human, economic and political cost of these confrontations will remain high for the occupation for a long time.

Regarding the possible scenarios for the conflict, he said: “There is a scenario of an Israeli resolution of the conflict, whereby the occupation may choose escalation with the aim of completely eradicating the Palestinian entity in the West Bank and Gaza. This option is consistent with the vision of the Israeli right, which believes that the Zionist movement’s biggest mistake was not resolving the conflict with the Palestinians early on.”

The decision will not be easy or quick.

However, he stated that the decisive option will not be easy or quick, as the ongoing confrontations will lead to a large-scale escalation, whether in Gaza or the West Bank.

He added that the depletion of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank will continue, which will weaken the occupation's ability to achieve its goals in the long term.

He continued: "If the occupation moves to end the current war in the Gaza Strip and reduce the aggression on the West Bank, there may be an opportunity for a long-term calm."

Abu Sitta expressed his belief that this scenario might include alleviating the suffering of the people of Gaza, rebuilding the Strip, and achieving relative economic and social stability.

He said: This scenario may extend the period of calm compared to previous confrontations, which provides an opportunity to make political changes that may lead to the establishment of a unified Palestinian state between Gaza and the West Bank, or at least achieve relative stability that enables the Palestinians to confront the challenges of the occupation in a more organized manner.

He pointed out that the Arab region is witnessing a state of instability, whether in Lebanon or Syria, which increases the complexity of the Palestinian situation. The US administration and its allies in the West are also closely monitoring the situation, but their ability to intervene to resolve the conflict or achieve a long-term calm depends on regional and international political changes.

Abu Sitta stressed that the occupation's continuation of the current escalation will lead to more confrontations and mutual attrition, while the option of a long-term calm could achieve relative stability, opening the door to major political changes in the future.

He concluded by saying: "In any case, the Palestinian issue remains the focus of the conflict in the region, and future scenarios depend largely on the decisions of the occupation and the will of the Palestinian people to confront the challenges."