Despite some violations committed by the occupation army in southern Lebanon, the ceasefire has become a reality on the ground with the Lebanese army beginning to deploy, which was preceded by the return of tens of thousands of displaced Lebanese to their homes in the south, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs. This is met by the failure of displaced settlers to return to their homes in the northern settlements.

The calculations of profit and loss began even before the ceasefire agreement came into effect, and they will not end soon, as each party, whether Israel or the Lebanese resistance, will try to consider what happened a victory for them and a defeat for the other party. However, in such a war that lasted for nearly fourteen months, the longest in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict, it may not be useful to consider that one party achieved a sweeping victory and the other party suffered a complete defeat, as calculating the profit and loss by calculating the points may be more fair to the two warring parties.

Writers and analysts who spoke to "Y" Dot Com confirmed that the evaluation of this round of confrontation is through evaluating the goals set by each party and what it was able to achieve from them, pointing out at the same time that Israel, which possesses a powerful force and tremendous Western support, was unable to achieve its goals of eradicating Hezbollah or returning the displaced settlers to the north, and that the agreement stipulates the implementation of international resolution 1701, which was issued after the 2006 war and which Hezbollah had previously agreed to.

The war did not lead to a decisive victory for either side.

Major General Mohammed Ali Al-Samadi, a Jordanian military and strategic expert, confirmed that the war that lasted for about eight weeks between Israel and Hezbollah did not lead to a decisive victory for either side.

Al-Samadi pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to achieve an "image of absolute victory," as Israel faced serious political, economic, and social crises during this war, including the displacement of thousands, the disruption of the economy, and the halting of tourism and industry.

He added that the Israeli army had reached a state of "war fatigue", with heavy losses on three main combat axes: the western axis: the Shama and al-Bayada area. the central axis: the Bint Jbeil area. the eastern axis: the Khiyam area.

He said, "Despite the participation of five military divisions, including elite forces and the regular 36th Armored Division, the Israeli forces were only able to advance a limited distance of nine kilometers, with heavy losses including the destruction of about 60 tanks.

The field was the main reason behind the ceasefire.

Brigadier General Samadi stressed that the imposition of the field itself was the main reason behind the ceasefire, as Israel realized that the human and material costs would be high if it continued its incursion. Netanyahu stated that the focus should shift to the “Iranian threat,” with the Israeli army given a break to rebuild its weapons stockpile, while separating the Lebanon front from the Gaza front. He pointed out that the current agreement, supervised by the United States, France, and UNIFIL, requires Hezbollah to withdraw to the north of the Litani River, and the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south with international support to secure the border. Its provisions also include the dismantling of Hezbollah’s heavy weapons systems, which may pave the way for the party’s integration into the Lebanese political system in the future.

Al-Samadi explained that Hezbollah's responses were calculated and limited, as it avoided using qualitative missiles on a large scale, in order to avoid provoking Israel into an escalation targeting the Lebanese infrastructure. Despite this, Lebanon and Hezbollah paid a heavy price as a result of the intensive Israeli bombardment, which targeted cities, suburbs and infrastructure to a large extent.

Israel has exhausted its "target system"

Major General Al-Samadi linked the developments in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, where Israel has exhausted its “target system” in Gaza, and is now seeking to create political and psychological pressure on the population and the Palestinian resistance.

He pointed to Israeli statements calling for the reoccupation of Gaza, reducing the population by half, and encouraging voluntary migration, which indicates broad displacement and re-Judaization plans that may target the Strip in the future.

He explained that the developments indicate a new phase of asymmetric conflicts in the region, where the Palestinian resistance in Gaza remains alone in confronting Israeli pressures.

He also warned against Israel's continued exploitation of the situation to achieve its expansionist goals at the expense of the Palestinians and the Lebanese, calling for concerted Arab and international efforts to prevent the continuation of this scenario.

Major General Al-Samadi believes that the reasons for the escalation in the region still exist, despite the agreement reached between Lebanon and Israel.

Al-Samadi described the terms of the agreement as "harsh," noting that the continued presence of the Israeli occupation army in southern Lebanon would allow it to impose its dictates on the ground.

Al-Samadi did not rule out the existence of American-Iranian understandings that contributed to reaching the agreement.

Israel did not achieve its goals and suffered heavy losses on the ground.

For her part, Nevin Abu Rahmon, an expert in Israeli affairs, said that the equation of profit and loss in the recent war between Israel and Hezbollah depends on the goals set at the beginning of the aggression.

She explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not succeed in achieving his main goals, which were to restore security, return settlers to their settlements, and eliminate Hezbollah.

Abu Rahmoun confirmed that Israel suffered heavy losses on the ground, and failed to read Hezbollah’s military strategy, which was based on two levels:

1- Field tactics: Hezbollah has proven its efficiency in ground operations and targeting sites inside Israel.

2- Transferring the battle: He was able to transfer the confrontation from the Lebanese interior to the Israeli interior, which confused the occupation’s calculations.

She added: The assassination policy carried out by Israel, including attempts to target Hezbollah leaders, did not achieve its goals. The resistance quickly recovered and returned to the field in a strong way, which surprised Israel and Netanyahu.

Abu Rahmoun pointed out that Netanyahu is facing enormous pressure on the military, security, and economic levels, in addition to clear American criticism.

Biden forced Netanyahu to accept ceasefire agreement

She said that US President Joe Biden forced Netanyahu to accept the ceasefire agreement, after it failed to provide any gains to the United States or the Israeli public.

Abu Rahmon described the agreement as a "gain for the resistance," noting that it restored the situation to what it was in 2006 in accordance with UN Resolution 1701, despite Israel's attempts to impose its dictates through American mediation.

She stressed that the official Lebanese position and the resistance adhere to Lebanon's sovereignty and reject dictates.

In the same context, Abu Rahmoun said that Netanyahu's speech after the agreement was weak and unconvincing, which sparked criticism from the heads of the border settlements who considered the agreement "a defeat for Israel and a victory for Hezbollah." She added that the settlers expressed their anger over their inability to return to their destroyed homes, which increased the internal tension.

Abu Rahmon concluded that Israel today appears "fragile" in front of its domestic audience, and that Netanyahu is paying the price for his failure to manage the war and its internal and external repercussions.

Israel has not achieved any of its goals.

In turn, Dr. Ahmed Shadid, professor of international relations and researcher in Israeli affairs, said that assessing the gains and losses in the current confrontation depends primarily on the goals set by each party.

He pointed to the goals set by Israel and announced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and then the new Minister of Defense, Yisrael Katz, came to confirm some of them, which are represented firstly, the return of the displaced from the settlements in northern Israel, then eliminating the strength of Hezbollah and preventing it from returning to the south of the Litani River, which is 4-30 kilometers away from the border, and redrawing the geopolitical map of the Middle East.

Shadid added: "To understand the tactics that Israel followed to achieve these goals, we shed light on the first and second pager bombings, the assassination of the party's General Staff, and then the assassination of Hezbollah's Secretary-General Sayyed Nasrallah and his successor Sheikh Hashem Safieddine.

He pointed out that the Israeli side believes that the party has received fatal blows and that a ground invasion has become possible to begin its ground attack focusing on the eastern and western sectors.

He saw that the ground advance stumbled in the eastern and western sectors, and Hezbollah missiles reached the heart of Greater Tel Aviv on 11/24/2024, to witness a sharp turn in the positions of Netanyahu and his government, leading to Netanyahu announcing in a recorded speech about the ceasefire, then two hours later US President Joe Biden followed him to confirm what Netanyahu said, and all of this before the Lebanese government even convened to ratify the agreement in a precedent that is the first in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict and in the mechanisms for ending the rounds of confrontation.

Smotrich and the settlement south of the Litani!

Shadid said: As a result, Hezbollah forces have not been eliminated, and the displaced Israelis have not yet returned to their settlements in the north, and the party's fighters have returned to Kfar Kila and other border towns, noting that the most important thing of all is that the undeclared strategic goal of creating strife within Lebanon and a new civil war in Lebanon has not been achieved.

He pointed out that Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich swallowed his tongue and withdrew his talk about the return of settlement to the south of the Litani River, considering that this area is part of Israel. He even turned into a theorist of the agreement, describing it as preserving the security of northern Israel for years to come, despite his announcement of his rejection of the agreement more than once. Settlement Minister Orit Struck stopped talking about settlement in southern Lebanon, especially after the killing of Israeli archaeologist and historian Zeev Erlich in the town of Shama in the western sector.

On the other hand, Shadid confirmed that Hezbollah's missile force is still strong and that it had previously bombed Tel Aviv just two days before Netanyahu announced the ceasefire, and its human force, according to Israeli army statistics, which said that the army had eliminated two thousand five hundred members of the party, knowing that the number of the party's human forces is close to one hundred thousand members.

Shadid concluded by stressing that Israel, on the strategic level, lost the round.

The agreement may bring stability to Israel on its northern border.

In turn, Dr. Hassan Marhej, an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, said that assessing the balance of profit and loss in the recent agreement between Israel and Hezbollah depends on analyzing several political, military, and economic dimensions.

He explained that this approach requires a deep understanding of the regional and international developments surrounding the scene, away from emotional reading.

He added: The balance of profit and loss, with regard to Israel first, we say that this agreement may achieve stability for Israel on its northern borders, which reduces security threats, with the possibility of improving relations with some Arab countries by presenting a model for negotiating with Hezbollah.

He continued: As for the loss, the agreement may be viewed as a concession of some rights or lands, which may affect the image of the Israeli government internally, and this could lead to strengthening Hezbollah's position as a political and military force in Lebanon.

Regarding Hezbollah, Marhej stressed that this agreement could enhance its political legitimacy in Lebanon, as it will appear as a defender of national sovereignty, with the possibility of obtaining greater popular support by demonstrating the ability to achieve positive results.

In the loss, Marhej said that the party may be exposed to internal pressures from some Lebanese movements or from the international community, and if the agreement is not beneficial to the Lebanese people in general, this may lead to a decline in its popularity.

Reasons for Israel's acceptance of the ceasefire agreement

Marhej believed that there may be multiple reasons for Israel’s approval, including the Israeli desire to avoid a military escalation that could lead to human or material losses, as well as the need to ensure border stability in order to direct its resources towards other issues, noting that Israel may have been exposed to international or regional pressures that could push it towards diplomatic solutions.

Regarding Hezbollah’s image, Marhej said that after the agreement with Israel, Hezbollah’s image in the Lebanese political scene is expected to change, based on the possibility that the party will appear as a political force capable of achieving accomplishments, which will strengthen its position in the Lebanese government. However, Hezbollah may face criticism from some Lebanese parties that oppose any kind of negotiation with Israel, which may create new divisions within the political arena.

He stressed that if the agreement succeeds in improving the economic or security situation, the party may become a more influential force in Lebanese politics.

"In general, there will be a delicate balance between gains and losses for both Israel and Hezbollah, and this will depend on how the agreement is implemented and its impact on the Lebanese people and the region in general," Marhej concluded.

The interest of the Palestinian people is a top priority.

For his part, Dr. Riad Al-Aila, Professor of Political Science at Al-Azhar University, stressed that the interests of the Palestinian people must be a top priority above any other considerations, including the interests of the factions, pointing to the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip due to the war.

Al-Aila explained that the human and material losses suffered by the sector are unprecedented, as the number of martyrs exceeded 45 thousand, while the number of wounded and missing under the rubble exceeded 250 thousand, the majority of whom were children and women. In addition, more than 85% of homes, hospitals, schools, universities and infrastructure were destroyed, leaving more than 10 thousand people homeless, without even tents to protect them from the summer heat or the winter cold.

Al-Aila criticized the continuation of what he described as the "flood approach," which bets on steadfastness at the expense of civilians' lives, pointing out that the continuation of this approach could lead to Gaza being turned into a desert due to the bombing and destruction.

He called for an immediate cessation of the war and an end to the suffering, saying this was necessary to preserve the Palestinian identity and the right of return.

He pointed out that the armistice agreement in Lebanon, despite the multiplicity of factions and religious affiliations, confirmed that the interests of the Lebanese and Lebanon were the priority.

He stressed the need to adopt this approach in the Palestinian case, calling on the leaders of the factions to leave room for the Palestine Liberation Organization to lead the efforts to end the war, rebuild and restore the Palestinian identity.

Al-Aila concluded by saying: “Yes to stopping the war of extermination, yes to rebuilding Gaza, and yes to preserving the right of return and the key to the house that our fathers and grandfathers left behind.”

The Lebanese army began deploying to its positions in the south

Lebanese analyst Dr. Abdullah Nehme said that the war that broke out on October 7, 2023 has officially ended with the ceasefire coming into effect, adding that the Lebanese army has already begun deploying to its positions in the south as part of a comprehensive agreement to stop military operations.

Naama stressed that the results of the war did not achieve strategic gains for any of the warring parties. Israel did not succeed in freeing all its hostages or eliminating Hamas, Hezbollah and their missiles, nor was it able to destroy the Iranian nuclear program.

He said: On the other hand, Iran did not achieve its goal of destroying Israel or liberating Jerusalem, and Hezbollah was not able to impose a halt to the Israeli bombing of Gaza, nor was Hamas able to free Palestinian prisoners or topple Netanyahu's right-wing government.

Nehme pointed out that civilians were the biggest losers in this conflict, with the death toll reaching about 55,000 in Gaza and 5,000 in Lebanon, in addition to 500 Israeli dead. The region also witnessed widespread destruction including Gaza, villages in southern Lebanon, the suburbs, parts of Beirut and the Bekaa, in addition to partial destruction in northern Israel.

Nehme explained that the agreement that was reached, despite its fragility, may hold a horizon for establishing a ceasefire thanks to the guarantees provided by the United States and France, under the management of the senior American general in Lebanon and an international committee.

International and regional understandings to rearrange the region

He pointed out that there are broader regional and international understandings between Israel, America, France, and the Arab countries, led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, aiming to rearrange the Middle East region, with a focus on Lebanon as the beginning of this path.

Nehme stated that implementing the amended Resolution 1701 has become an indispensable option for Lebanon, noting that this agreement represents a strategic interest for Israel and America, but at the same time provides an opportunity for Lebanon to rebuild its state.

Nehme revealed that Lebanon will begin a new path towards building a real state starting from the beginning of 2025, with the Lebanese army being reinforced across all territories in three phases extending over a period of 60 days.

He pointed out that the martyrdom of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah contributed to unifying the Lebanese ranks, while Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri played a pivotal role in the negotiations and called for a session to elect a president for the republic on January 9, 2025.