Hani Abu Al-Sabaa: Annexing the West Bank means the end of any hope for a political peace process and the collapse of the Authority and its institutions

Khalil Shaheen: Israel is trying to withdraw more powers from the Authority, which threatens its collapse or turning it into a large municipality

Muhammad Abu Allan Daraghmeh: Declaring Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank is dangerous and means displacing Area C and eliminating the two-state solution

Muhammad Hawash: Arab unity is required to confront any plan that does not meet Palestinian aspirations and work to protect the two-state solution

Sari Arabi: Any annexation of the West Bank effectively means ending the settlement process on which the Palestinian Authority was founded

Fayez Abbas: The timing of Smotrich’s statements may be due to his declining popularity.. and the Trump administration’s position will be decisive

The Israeli government, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, is racing to impose full sovereignty over the West Bank, amid rapid moves and statements from its ministers, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who announced that 2025 will be the date for achieving this goal.

In separate interviews with “I,” writers, political analysts and specialists believe that Israeli officials are counting on Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, which could provide strong support for expanding settlements and disrupting any peace efforts. They are even putting the issue of sovereignty over the West Bank on the Trump administration’s table as one of the first issues.

Writers and experts confirm that the Palestinian Authority is facing major challenges, with warnings of its potential collapse if Israel continues to withdraw its powers and undermine its role, which threatens further escalation and confrontation.

More extreme Israeli positions

Writer, political analyst and expert on Israeli affairs, Hani Abu Al-Sabaa, points out that the statements of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich regarding imposing full Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank by 2025 came accompanied by explicit instructions to begin implementing this plan. It seemed striking that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, hours after those statements, indicated the need to exploit the historic opportunity that the return of former US President Donald Trump to the White House might provide to impose Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank lands.

Abu Al-Sabaa asserts that these statements reflect more extreme positions in the Israeli government, and aim to achieve internal political gains in light of crucial electoral entitlements.

According to Abu Al-Sabaa, the moves led by Netanyahu's government coincide with the results of opinion polls that showed that the Likud party led by Netanyahu may suffer in the upcoming elections, and may not achieve the required electoral threshold. Then came the hardline rhetoric adopted by Smotrich in an attempt to maintain the support of the electoral base of extremist settlers, who constitute a significant electoral force.

Disrupting any political process or possible settlements

But according to Abu Al-Sabaa, this policy also serves a deeper goal: to disrupt any political path or potential settlements that might follow Trump’s victory, which might include the West Bank within new arrangements, which reinforces the Israeli government’s desire to impose a fait accompli before any diplomatic developments.

Abu Al-Sabaa points out that the calls of Israeli officials, including statements by ministers in Netanyahu’s government, were not limited to annexation alone, but some voices are demanding more severe measures, such as removing Palestinian camps and pushing Palestinians to leave their homeland, as these calls reveal the dimensions of the broader Israeli project, which goes beyond mere geographical control to an attempt to bring about sustainable demographic change.

He points out that on the Palestinian side, President Mahmoud Abbas's statements at the extraordinary summit in Riyadh warned of the danger of the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, as President Abbas stressed that unilateral Israeli policies on the ground, which include settlement expansion and land confiscation, threaten the Palestinian dream of establishing an independent state and put the future of the Authority at risk.

According to Abu Al-Sabaa, the Palestinian Authority has faced major challenges in the past, most notably the “Deal of the Century,” which aimed to liquidate the Palestinian cause and pass Arab normalization without a just political solution. Today, the Authority faces a more dangerous scenario that requires a comprehensive confrontation.

Abu Al-Sabaa stresses the need for the Palestinian leadership to use all available means, starting with turning to international forums to expose Israeli policies, to strengthening Arab and Islamic coordination to pressure Netanyahu’s government. Strengthening the steadfastness of the Palestinians on the ground, especially in areas classified as “C,” is a vital priority, despite the limited capabilities possessed by the Authority.

But Abu Al-Sabaa stresses that with the return of Trump, who offered Israel unprecedented political gifts in his previous term, such as recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and legitimizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, the challenges are becoming more complex.

Abu Al-Sabaa stresses that if the Israeli government succeeds in implementing its plans regarding sovereignty over the West Bank, this will mean the end of any hope for a political peace process, and the collapse of the Authority and its institutions, which will leave millions of Palestinians under the rule of direct occupation.

Despite the bleakness of this scenario, Abu Al-Sabaa points out that imposing extremist Israeli policies will plunge the region into a cycle of continuous violence and will strengthen the spirit of resistance among the Palestinians, as historical experiences show that when the Israeli occupation suffers heavy losses due to long-term resistance, it is eventually forced to withdraw, leaving behind settlement projects that have cost it dearly.

A key item in Netanyahu's government program

Writer and political analyst Khalil Shaheen warns of the danger of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s proposal that 2025 will be the year of imposing Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, stressing that this proposal is not just a dream, but rather represents a major item in the government program of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Shaheen points out that this clause was explicitly mentioned in the coalition agreements signed between the Likud and Religious Zionism parties led by Smotrich in December 2022, which stipulated that the Israeli government would seek to impose the sovereignty of the “Jewish state” over the areas of the so-called “Judea and Samaria” (i.e. the West Bank), and that implementation would depend on Netanyahu’s decisions in light of favorable circumstances.

Shaheen points out that Smotrich believes that Donald Trump's return to the US presidency may create an ideal opportunity to achieve these demands, and perhaps even raise the ceiling of ambitions beyond the annexation of 30% of the West Bank proposed in the "Deal of the Century."

The extreme right, according to Smotrich, may seek to impose sovereignty over the entire West Bank, but things do not stop at the Israeli waiting for favorable conditions, as the current government is working to prepare the reality on the ground. We have witnessed from the beginning the appointment of Smotrich as a second minister in the Ministry of Defense and granting him broad powers related to managing settlement affairs and demolishing Palestinian homes, which effectively diminishes the powers of the Palestinian Authority, especially in areas classified as “B,” referring to the recent escalatory steps that have stripped the Palestinian Authority of powers in southwest Bethlehem, as well as the “creeping annexation” through expanding settlements and linking settlements to a broad infrastructure.

Shaheen explains that these policies are radically different from those followed by previous Israeli governments, which focused settlement on areas that served security purposes such as the Jordan Valley or on the borders of the Green Line. However, now, the policies of the Netanyahu government are characterized by an aggressive nature, as settlers seek to establish settlement outposts deep in the West Bank and launch terrorist attacks on Palestinian villages and communities.

Shaheen expressed his concern about settler attacks that are no longer limited to rural areas, but have extended to the outskirts of Palestinian cities, as happened in the recent attack on the city of Al-Bireh, where cars were burned and residential units were damaged.

Shaheen believes that Israel is trying to confine the Palestinians to isolated areas, while withdrawing more powers from the Palestinian Authority, which threatens its collapse or turning it into an entity that provides services without any sovereign powers.

Regarding the fate of the Palestinian Authority if Israeli sovereignty is imposed, Shahin asserts that imposing sovereignty means that the West Bank will come under complete Israeli control, and the Authority will not be allowed to exercise any statehood, such as raising flags or having security forces. Rather, it will be forcibly transformed into a mere large municipality, while the Palestinians will be treated as residents without full citizenship rights, similar to the situation of the Palestinians in the city of Jerusalem.

Shahin points out that Israel may go further to amend the legal environment in line with the “Jewish Nation-State” law, which enshrines the rights of self-determination for Jews alone and promotes settlement as a supreme value of the state.

Shaheen believes that the danger of annexation does not only threaten the West Bank, but may extend to the Palestinians inside the Green Line, while Shaheen believes that if these steps are implemented, they will launch what he called the "mercy bullet" on the path of normalization, and transfer the conflict to an open confrontation, which may include scenarios of displacement and war in all its cultural and political forms.

The authority is required to adopt a new strategy.

He stresses that confronting this danger requires the Palestinian Authority to adopt a new strategy that works in coordination with the factions and civil society, away from the Oslo approach that focused on managing the population rather than the land.

Shaheen points out that we may witness a return to a popular resistance pattern that reactivates the role of the Palestine Liberation Organization as a comprehensive framework, inspired by previous struggle experiences.

Shaheen believes that the Israeli plans may push the Palestinians to return to resistance in all its forms, which will restore the Palestinian cause to its radiance and define the Palestinian conflict as a national liberation movement.

The occupation imposes its full control over the West Bank

The writer and expert on Israeli affairs, Muhammad Abu Allan Daraghmeh, believes that the Israeli occupation state’s control over Area C, which constitutes 63% of the West Bank, has become a reality. This control is not merely a matter of terminology, but rather the occupation imposes its complete control over the West Bank through networks of settlements, army camps, military training areas, and nature reserves.

Draghmeh points out that despite the absence of an official declaration imposing Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, the occupation authorities are imposing their actual control through military laws that serve their interests, while the official declaration remains subject to the position of the US administration, which is the only international player capable of providing legitimacy for such a step, as the Israeli occupation government believes. Hence, the statements of the Israeli Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, that the year 2025 is the year of the actual annexation of the West Bank.

Daraghmeh stresses that the issue of declaring sovereignty over the West Bank depends largely on how the United States deals with the occupation government, given that Tel Aviv cannot ignore the importance of Washington’s approval. So far, although Israeli law has not been formally imposed on the West Bank, the occupation’s control is being applied on the ground, leaving the question of the extent to which this sovereignty can be formally declared.

Israeli discussions about the fate of the Authority

Regarding the fate of the Palestinian Authority, Draghmeh explains that the debate over its existence is ongoing within the corridors of Israeli politics, both at the military and political levels. Despite the apparent differences between the parties, where extremists such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir call for getting rid of the Authority, on the pretext that it supports what they call “terrorism” and is the nucleus of a potential Palestinian state, the Israeli army sees the importance of maintaining the Authority as a tool for maintaining security. From the military level’s point of view, the existence of the Authority strengthens efforts to combat “terrorism,” but on condition that it remains weak and operates within limits acceptable to Israel.

Draghmeh points out that Smotrich promotes the need for the Authority to remain under the control of the occupation, while keeping its influence weak, even in areas classified as “A,” while preventing it from having any actual presence or influence in areas “C.” Smotrich’s statements, which call for the Authority to remain in a way that serves the interests of the occupation, reflect the general trend toward imposing complete control, while keeping the Palestinians in a state of permanent dependency.

As for the repercussions of declaring sovereignty if it happens, Draghmeh believes that the step means the final elimination of the idea of the two-state solution, which is consistent with the vision of the extreme Israeli right, which considers settlements the most important means of preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Draghmeh warns that this step could lead to the widespread displacement of Palestinians from Area C, with the aim of concentrating their presence in the smallest possible area in the West Bank, which would ensure that the settlers control the largest area, and thus achieve the main goal that Smotrich seeks.

Power options are almost non-existent.

Regarding the Palestinian Authority’s options, Draghmeh asserts that its options seem almost non-existent, especially in light of the unlimited American support for the Israeli occupation, which provides it with international protection in international institutions.

Draghmeh points out that Israel does not pay attention to international resolutions, whether issued by the United Nations or the Security Council, which means that any official Palestinian reactions are limited to statements of condemnation and denunciation or holding international meetings, such as those sponsored by the Arab League, without producing tangible results on the ground.

Draghmeh points out that the internal Palestinian division is an obstructive factor that disperses Palestinian efforts and weakens their ability to effectively confront the occupation at various levels. This division also weakens the general Palestinian position and makes it difficult to invest any popular or international momentum in confronting Israeli plans.

On the Israeli side, Draghmeh explains that the media indicated that Netanyahu's government is not waiting for the end of the Biden administration's term, but is rather accelerating the preparation of files related to the annexation plans to present them to the table of the next Donald Trump administration.

This Israeli haste, according to Draghmeh, warns that actual steps towards annexation are being arranged, especially since Netanyahu's recent statements reflect his agreement with Smotrich's orientations, which means that Israel is moving forward in achieving this agenda without waiting for new international cover.

Draghmeh stresses that these developments reflect the extent of the occupation government’s determination to undermine any chance of establishing a Palestinian state, through practical steps represented by settlement, and political steps represented by seeking to impose sovereignty, amidst the absence of any effective tools in the hands of the Palestinians to confront these accelerating challenges.

A unified Arab position is required

Writer and political analyst Muhammad Hawash explains that since 2017, Bezalel Smotrich has been promoting his project to annex the West Bank as part of what he calls the “decisive plan,” even before he became finance minister in Netanyahu’s government.

Hawash points out that Smotrich believes that this region cannot tolerate two states, and calls on the Palestinians to give up their national aspirations, even by force. This extremist idea has been increasingly encouraged since the previous term of Donald Trump in the US presidency, who provided unprecedented support for Israel. It witnessed some decline during the presidency of Joe Biden, but it has returned to a strong rise with the appointment of Smotrich as a minister in Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Today, with Trump’s return to the US presidency, Israeli expansionist ambitions appear to be receiving a new dose of support.

Hawash explains that Israeli settlement in the West Bank increased significantly during Smotrich's tenure in government, as Israel tightened its measures against the Palestinians and sought to intensify control over the land.

However, Hawash points out that the idea of full annexation is still subject to complex political balances at the international, regional and Israeli levels, where interests and influential forces overlap in this issue.

Hawash stresses that the Palestinians, of course, reject these plans in principle, and see them as a blatant threat to their national aspirations and legitimate rights.

On the regional level, Hawash confirms that there is a clear rejection of any attempt to impose Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, and that the entire international community, including the United States, officially recognizes the Palestinian Authority, and the Biden administration is still committed to rejecting the extremist proposals promoted by ministers such as Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

However, according to Hawash, Trump's future position on this issue remains unclear, although some indications suggest that he does not intend to return to the "Deal of the Century" in its previous form. However, experts warn that Trump's policy may be affected by new balances in the region.

In this context, Hawash believes that it is necessary for the Arabs to unite in a clear position to confront any plan that does not meet Palestinian aspirations, and to work to protect the two-state solution that enjoys international consensus.

According to Hawash, the complete annexation of the West Bank, if implemented, would mean that Israel would bear responsibility for the Palestinian population. This scenario raises questions about whether Israel is truly prepared to live in a single state that includes the Palestinians, with equal rights guaranteed to all, or whether it is seeking to impose an apartheid-like system, which the international community does not accept in any way. The world agrees on the necessity of achieving a two-state solution, and categorically opposes any policy that would eliminate this option.

Despite the threats of annexation of the West Bank, Hawash asserts that the Palestinian Authority will remain in place, whether Israel accepts it or not. It is internationally recognized and bears responsibility for the Palestinian people, and its presence will remain present as an obstacle to extremist Israeli policies.

However, Hawash expects that the Palestinians will face a severe political confrontation, including all aspects of life in the West Bank, in light of Israel's attempts to gain complete control, which is difficult to achieve without international and regional approval.

Hawash confirms that the first steps to confront Smotrich's plan were represented by the Arab-Islamic summit, which clearly expressed its rejection of any solution imposed unilaterally.

Hawash stresses that confronting these Israeli plans requires broad diplomatic action at the international level to protect the two-state solution, prevent the liquidation of the Palestinian cause, and preserve the rights of the Palestinian people in light of the escalating challenges.

Facts on the ground go unhesitatingly.

Writer and political analyst Sari Arabi stresses the need to deal seriously with the plans of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who plans to resolve the issue of Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank in 2025.

Arabi points out that the procedures and facts on the ground are proceeding without hesitation to achieve this goal, which requires great attention, especially since the annexation project is not limited to Smotrich alone, but is part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s agenda, when Netanyahu announced his intention to annex parts of the West Bank during his previous term, which coincided with the term of former US President Donald Trump, and the launch of the “Deal of the Century” at that time.

Arabi explains that annexation is not only achieved through Smotrich’s statements, but also through practical steps. For example, Smotrich was given a second ministry in the Israeli Ministry of War, where he separates the civil administration of the settlers in the West Bank from the military government. This step, which practically means establishing a civil administration for the settlers, is an actual annexation without the need for legal noise, which makes it easy to legalize in the future.

Arabi points out that there are already projects under discussion to annex certain areas of the West Bank, including settlements and Area C, and there are recent Israeli decisions, such as the confiscation of a reserve located east of Bethlehem, and granting powers to the Civil Administration in Area B, which confirms that Israel is proceeding with the gradual implementation of annexation plans.

As for the fate of the Palestinian Authority, Arabi believes that this is a big question that must be asked, especially since any annexation process effectively means ending the settlement process on which the Authority was founded, from the Madrid Conference to the Oslo Accords and the agreements that followed.

Arabi points out that the occupation seeks to transform the Authority from a political entity representing the Palestinians into a mere self-administration with no political horizon, and that it works as a security agent serving the interests of the occupation. This indicates that the fate of the Authority is now in great danger, as its role is being gradually marginalized, which is something that must be taken into account.

The occupation treats the West Bank as an annexed land without inhabitants

Regarding the fate of the Palestinian population after the official announcement of the annexation, Arabi points out that the Israeli occupation deals with the West Bank as a land to be annexed without a population, which raises real questions about the legal status of the Palestinians in light of the annexation. If the areas of the West Bank become subject to Israeli laws, the legal status of the Palestinians will become ambiguous and confusing, which may facilitate the implementation of policies of displacement and suffocation of the population, in an attempt to force them to live in the smallest possible area.

Arabi warns of serious repercussions of annexation, including ending the legal status of the West Bank as occupied territory according to international law, and imposing new facts that legalize and legitimize the occupation.

This reality, according to Arabi, exacerbates the Palestinian dilemma and puts the Authority in a difficult position, especially with the continued state of internal division that disperses national efforts.

Arabi believes that Smotrich's threats cannot be confronted with silence, through statements, condemnation and denunciation, nor through the settlement path that Israel has used to its advantage.

Arabi stresses that the settlement process has ended and failed, which places a great national responsibility before the Palestinian leadership to launch a new program. This program should be based on national unity and take into account the many challenges, such as the ongoing Israeli aggression on Gaza, settlement expansion, and settler attacks.

Arabi concludes that the entire Palestinian national project is in great danger, which requires rethinking strategies and programs, and moving from stagnation to a real confrontation against expansionist Israeli policies.

Israeli concern over annexation due to demographics

Fayez Abbas, a writer specializing in Israeli affairs, believes that Smotrich’s statements about imposing Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank came amid an internal crisis that Smotrich is experiencing, as his popularity is suffering from a significant decline if new elections are held, to the point that in recent opinion polls he barely exceeds the electoral threshold, which has raised his concerns and pushed him to search for a controversial speech that would restore his public presence.

Abbas believes that Smotrich is acting as if the West Bank is not under Israeli control at all, while Israel has imposed its full military sovereignty over it since 1967.

Abbas points out that from Smotrich's perspective, the settlements are a factor that can now be used to advance the annexation project, taking advantage of potential political developments in the United States, as he believes that with Trump's return, there will be a golden opportunity to make fundamental changes on the ground.

However, Abbas poses a central question: What has prevented Israel from annexing the West Bank since it occupied it in the 1967 war? The answer, according to him, is simple but fundamental: demography.

Abbas points out that the fear of annexation stems from Israel's constant concern about having to absorb the Palestinian population, which would lead to the loss of the Jewish majority within the state within a few years. At that point, Israel would not be able to maintain its identity as a Jewish state, but would instead turn into a binational state, which would mean the end of the Zionist project as designed.

Regarding the Palestinian Authority, Abbas asserts that if the annexation is implemented, the Authority will be dissolved automatically, and the burden of managing Palestinian affairs will fall entirely on Israel, including responsibilities for health, education, infrastructure and basic services. Abbas asks: Is Smotrich, as Minister of Finance, prepared to assume these heavy responsibilities?

Abbas points out that confronting such a scenario requires international political action and continuous pressure, but the decisive factor will remain the position of the next US administration. With Trump’s return, all possibilities will remain on the table, including taking decisions that change the face of the entire region.