Oraib Al-Rantawi: Trump's return to power may pave the way for the "Deal of the Century 2", which threatens any chance of establishing an independent Palestinian state or even a Palestinian entity

Dr. Hussein Al-Deek: Trump is working on more alliances in the Middle East to strengthen the "Abraham Accords" and may re-adopt unlimited support for the occupation government

Dr. Raed Abu Badawi: Trump is expected to reduce military support for Ukraine to ease the burden on the US economy and focus more on domestic affairs

Daoud Kuttab: Trump's victory spared America from an expected division and he may seek to stop any regional conflict despite his absolute support for Israel

Dr. Jamal Harfoush: Trump adopts a populist discourse that stirs divisions, and his return may pose a grave threat to the Palestinian cause and ignite a regional confrontation

Donald Trump's return to the US presidency raises fears that his term may bring radical changes, indicating a reshaping of the features of international alliances according to Trump's old vision, in a way that reflects the interests of the United States, and its withdrawal from many files, which creates the possibility of the rise of great powers in those files to fill the American absence from them.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, political analysts and university professors believe that Donald Trump’s return may open a new phase that provides an opportunity to dismantle some regional and international issues, including the Middle East and Ukraine files, while strengthening the “Abraham Accords” that he started in his first term, and including more Arab countries in these agreements, which enhances normalization between Israel and some Arab countries.

They warn that Trump's continued unfettered support for Israel will marginalize Palestinian rights, undermine the chances of a real political settlement, and perhaps even create nightmare scenarios regarding the annexation of the West Bank.

Reshaping the international landscape

Director of the Jerusalem Center for Political Studies, Oraib Al-Rantawi, believes that Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency will reshape the international scene through his old-new policies, and increase pressure on the Palestinians as a result of his strong relationship with the Israeli fascist right. He pointed out that with Trump’s return, it seems that the features of the international system will witness major changes, which will be clearly reflected in regional and global alliances and interests.

Al-Rantawi explains that Donald Trump's sudden return to the American political arena may pose new challenges on both the global and regional levels. In the next four years, Trump is expected to rush to implement policies that are consistent with his vision, which is known for its focus on American interests, which raises questions about the potential repercussions of his return on several major issues in the world.

Rantawi stresses that on the Palestinian level, the strong relations between Trump and the Israeli far right appear to be an indicator of a critical stage that may increase the difficulties facing the Palestinians.

Rantawi describes Trump's return as potentially paving the way for the "Deal of the Century 2," which threatens any chance of establishing an independent Palestinian state or even a Palestinian entity.

These concerns of Rantawi are based on Trump’s previous statements in which he expressed his support for expanding Israel because its territory is small, which could lead to imposing a new reality that includes annexing lands and pushing the Palestinians towards forced displacement. It seems that this approach meets the ambitions of some Israeli movements to achieve what is known as the “final solution.”

In addition, Rantawi explains that Trump may take a firm stance on the situations in Gaza and Lebanon, where he is likely to seek to contain the wars there, but in return provide unlimited support to Israel to consolidate its control over the West Bank.

In another context, Rantawi expects that Trump's return will strengthen his well-known hostility towards Iran, as he is likely to resume a policy of pressure to limit its nuclear program and the influence of its allies in the region.

As for the relationship with Turkey, Rantawi believes that Ankara may be one of the beneficiaries of Trump’s return, as the latter shows little interest in the Kurdish file and does not deal seriously with the Syrian file, which is in line with Turkey’s interests.

In contrast, Rantawi points out that Jordan and Egypt may witness clear marginalization within American policy in favor of strengthening the Saudi role, while Cairo is expected to maintain Trump's interest in supporting its position on the Renaissance Dam issue.

On the international scene, Rantawi believes that Ukraine will be the biggest loser from Trump’s return due to the possibility of him moving towards strengthening relations with Russia.

As for China, Rantawi points out that it, in turn, is concerned about Trump’s return to the White House, as he sees fighting the Chinese economy as a priority.

A broad political shift in the American scene

The writer, political analyst and specialist in American affairs, Dr. Hussein Al-Deek, believes that Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States of America indicates a broad political shift in the American scene, especially after the Republican Party achieved a broad victory. The issue is no longer just the return of a political figure, but rather falls within the framework of the Republican Party regaining its dominance over the US Senate and House of Representatives, in addition to its control over state governments and legislative councils.

Al-Deek describes this change as a “red flood” as a symbol of the color designated for Republicans, which reflects the Republicans’ control over the United States and is due to several reasons, including: organizational cohesion within the Republican Party, versus the deep internal divisions that the Democratic Party is going through, as happened when Kamala Harris became the party’s candidate without a primary election, but rather by a decision from the traditional party leadership after President Joe Biden stepped down.

Al-Deek believes that this major shift in Congress and the White House places the United States and the world in a new political phase that may be characterized by the unraveling of some regional and international knots, including the Middle East and Ukraine files.

Through the rooster’s vision, Trump’s return will lead to more alliances in the Middle East, where he has a political project that he sought to strengthen after establishing it during his first presidential term, which was represented by the “Abraham Accords.” Trump is likely to seek to complete this path by including other Arab countries in these agreements, which will enhance the normalization of relations between Israel and some Arab countries.

Al-Deek asserts that Israeli-American relations will be further strengthened during Trump’s term, as the Republican Party relies in its support for Israel on ideological visions and personal interests shared between Trump and the Israeli right, especially with the support of Benjamin Netanyahu and his partners in government, who were among the first to congratulate Trump on his electoral victory.

Two possible scenarios for dealing with the Palestinian issue

Regarding the Palestinian issue, Al-Deek believes that there are two possible scenarios. The first scenario is that Trump will re-adopt the policy of unlimited support for the Israeli occupation government, which means continued settlement expansion and perhaps taking other steps such as recognizing Israeli sovereignty over additional areas, such as Area C, the Jordan Valley, and southern Hebron, steps that aim to formally integrate these areas into the “State of Israel.” It is possible that Trump and his government will recognize Israeli sovereignty over these areas as a kind of “free gift” that Trump may offer Netanyahu.

The second scenario, according to Al-Deek, relates to the possibility of launching a new political path under the slogan of the “two-state solution,” but from a different perspective, aiming to strengthen diplomatic relations between Israel and the Arab countries, in the context of completing the “Abraham Accords.”

Al-Deek believes that this path will not ultimately lead to an actual solution to the Palestinian issue, as the Israeli political elites, with their various party affiliations, lack the political will necessary to achieve a settlement based on the two-state solution, which makes this scenario merely a formal framework for promoting normalization and not for reaching a real peace.

Al-Deek believes that Trump’s return may open the way for resolving some of the complex issues in the Middle East, especially with regard to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Lebanese file, as Trump may seek to calm the situation in Gaza by reaching a humanitarian truce without offering radical political solutions. This truce includes stopping the targeting of civilians and easing restrictions on the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, in addition to reducing military escalation in the West Bank and southern Lebanon.

Al-Deek points out that such truces aim to achieve relative stability, but they do not rise to the level of permanent political solutions.

Regarding US policy towards Iran, Al-Deek believes that Trump’s return will witness an escalation in sanctions on Tehran, in addition to increasing pressure on its regional allies.

Al-Deek expects Trump to resort to using “soft power” by supporting his regional allies or “hard power” by directly targeting some figures or leaders linked to Iran.

Although these trends may vary depending on the nature of the file, Al-Deek indicates that the partnership between the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government will contribute to intensifying pressure on Iran, including military or economic targeting.

Al-Deek stresses that the return of "Trumpism" means a radical shift in American foreign policy, as the focus will return to narrow interests and avoiding complex interventions, while committing to supporting the existing alliances between Washington and Israel and some regional powers. However, it is not expected that the two-state solution will advance a step towards actual implementation, and rather the Palestinian issue will remain in the circle of futile negotiations.

Radical changes in the international system

Dr. Raed Abu Badawiyeh, Professor of International Law and International Relations at the Arab American University, believes that Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency will bring about radical changes in the international system, based on the policies he pursued during his first presidency, as he tends towards an isolationist policy that reduces US interventions in global conflicts. This trend may return strongly after his victory, which raises questions about its repercussions on global issues and strategic axes, starting with the Russian-Ukrainian war and extending to the Chinese file and the Middle East.

According to Abu Badawiya, Trump’s isolationist policy in the international system may open the way for the emergence of a multipolar system, where Russia and China play increasing roles in forming international alliances, and the major powers are freed from the influence of the United States. Trump’s isolationist policies may push towards deepening the global division, and make the United States a less interfering player in international affairs, which will leave gaps that other powers will exploit.

Abu Badawiya expects Trump to reduce military support for Ukraine, in a move aimed at easing the burden on the American economy and focusing more on internal affairs, and to take a less committed approach towards Taiwan, which may encourage China to strengthen its influence in the region.

On NATO, Abu Badawiya believes that Trump, during his previous presidency, showed little interest in Western military alliances, threatening to reduce American support if member states did not increase their military contributions. With his return, Trump is likely to adopt a similar approach.

These transformations, according to Abu Badawiya, may reformulate NATO’s role globally, and may give greater scope for the rise of other military powers, such as Russia and China, and deepen alliances between other global powers.

Alliance with Israel for interests and ideology

As for the Middle East, Trump's upcoming policies seem closely linked to the alliance with Israel for interests and ideological considerations, which was clearly evident during his first presidency through his absolute support for it.

Abu Badawiya believes that Trump’s policy towards the Middle East will be based on three main axes: the first is to strengthen hostility towards Iran without dealing it a major blow, the second is Israeli-Arab normalization, which Trump seeks to consolidate, but which will at the same time lead to the marginalization of Palestinian rights to a large extent, which may pave the way for implementing annexation plans in the West Bank and restricting any comprehensive political settlement of the Palestinian issue.

The third axis, according to Abu Badawiya, includes the future of Gaza and Lebanon, as Trump is not expected to push for an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. On the contrary, he may support Israeli security control there, and these policies may include new arrangements for the Strip, but without allowing the emergence of an independent Palestinian political system.

Regarding Lebanon, Abu Badawi believes that Trump will likely allow limited Israeli military operations there if necessary, but he will not support major Israeli ambitions to penetrate and control Lebanon.

Abu Badawiya points out that Trump's position on the Palestinian issue, especially the Gaza Strip, will remain biased in support of Israeli security control, noting that the "Deal of the Century" proposed Palestinian civil administrations in the West Bank, with a clear disregard for the establishment of a real, independent Palestinian state.

He explains that Trump's previous statements, which hinted at investment projects such as tourist resorts on the coast of Gaza, reveal his tendencies towards maintaining Israeli control and his lack of interest in its exit from the Strip.

Abu Badawiya points out that the Israelis view Trump as a suitable opportunity to implement their settlement, security and economic plans in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Ambiguity about Trump's commitment to his election promises

Writer and political analyst Daoud Kuttab believes that Donald Trump's return to power in the United States, after winning the presidential elections, has reduced the risk of internal unrest and spared the United States the division that would have been expected if he had lost.

However, writers express concern about the medium- and long-term implications of this, as Trump's return is shrouded in uncertainty about his commitment to his election promises, including deporting 12 million illegal immigrants from the United States.

Writers point out that this trend, along with Trump’s threat to restrict freedom of expression, take revenge on his political opponents, and impose customs taxes on imports, puts America on the verge of a potential economic collision, especially with the expected negative reactions from Europe and China, which could harm the American economy rather than support it.

Global concern about the stability of the international security system

Internationally, writers point to Trump’s promises to end the war in Ukraine, but questions are being raised about the price he might pay to achieve this, especially if it includes making concessions to Russia, such as allowing it to control parts of Ukraine or asserting its influence over its neighbors such as Georgia and Poland.

Writers point out that this scenario could lead to the weakening of NATO, raising global concerns about the stability of the international security system.

In the Middle East, writers consider Trump to be a close ally of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel, which could accelerate normalization efforts with Israel.

Writers believe that Trump, despite his absolute support for Israel, may seek to stop any regional conflict in the Middle East, including the current war in Gaza and Lebanon.

However, writers wonder how Trump will pursue peace, and will this include absolute support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, or will he pressure the Palestinian and Lebanese sides to reach a solution that is in line with the balance of power, or will it be a fair solution?

Amid this ambiguity, writers point out that Trump, during his previous presidential term, sometimes expressed his annoyance with Netanyahu, despite his great support for him.

Writers note that Trump has strong support from Israeli-American Miriam Adelson, the widow of American billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who donated $100 million to support Trump's campaign.

Writers expect that Trump will not take a tough stance on illegal settlements, and will not exert real pressure on Israel to reach a two-state solution, indicating that Trump will seek to maintain the status quo at any cost, and may only support a negotiated solution between the Palestinians and the Israelis.

Writers believe that Trump may try to calm tensions in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, but he will follow an indirect and limited approach, trying to reduce American intervention in the region as much as possible, within the framework of his policy based on reducing foreign commitments.

Deepening social and political divisions

Professor Dr. Jamal Harfoush, Professor of Scientific Research Methods and Political Studies at the University of the Academic Research Center in Brazil, confirms that Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency could lead to sharp changes in US policies, both domestically and abroad.

Internally, Harfoush expects Trump’s return to deepen social and political divisions within American society, noting that Trump is adopting a populist and provocative discourse that incites divisions and increases polarization, which threatens to escalate internal tension to unprecedented levels.

Harfoush warns that Trump will continue to adopt nationalist, self-interested policies that will reshape relations between America and the world in ways that could be decisive.

On the international level, Harfoush believes that Trump’s return may pose a threat to the global order based on multilateral cooperation, as Trump’s political approach relies on individual policies that serve only direct American interests and push for a re-evaluation of Washington’s commitments in international institutions. This isolationist trend.

According to Harfoush, Trump may weaken the influence of international organizations such as the United Nations, and open the way for other global powers, such as China and Russia, to exploit the gaps resulting from the decline of the American role to enhance their influence.

Threatening the stability of traditional international alliances

Harfoush warns that this trend will increase tensions in different parts of the world, and will threaten the stability of traditional international alliances that the United States has established for decades.

Harfoush points out that Trump's approach is based primarily on strengthening traditional alliances that are in line with his economic and security interests, which strengthens the relationship with countries such as Israel and some Arab countries that take similar political and security positions.

Harfoush expects this policy to lead to Trump taking a clearer side, relying on personal relationships with the leaders of these countries, which could deepen the differences in the region and marginalize the countries that adopt more balanced diplomatic positions and seek comprehensive solutions.

Harfoush warns that a policy of clear bias could make the United States a non-neutral player in sensitive regional issues, which could exacerbate divisions and encourage some parties in the Middle East to seek new allies outside the framework of American influence, thus reshaping the political map of the region.

Clear support for Israeli policies in the West Bank, including Jerusalem

Harfoush believes that Trump's return could pose a grave threat to the Palestinian cause, pointing to his clear support for Israeli policies in the West Bank, including Jerusalem, during his first presidential term.

Harfoush expresses his concern that Trump's return will encourage the Israeli government to take bolder steps in settlement expansion and impose a reality on the ground, which will further marginalize the two-state solution.

He points out that this approach would undermine any hope for a just peace settlement, as the Palestinians would be exposed to greater pressures that would hinder their aspirations for establishing their independent state.

Harfoush expects that this policy will push the Palestinians to face complex challenges that may lead to an escalation of frustration and increased tension, in light of the failure of the international community and its institutions to take effective action.

Regarding US-Iranian relations, Harfouche expects Trump to restore the “maximum pressure” policy that aims to strangle the Iranian economy and reduce Tehran’s regional influence.

Harfoush points out that this strict approach may increase the possibility of military escalation between the two countries, as economic pressures may push Iran to take escalatory steps, either by developing its nuclear program or by supporting its regional allies.

Harfoush warns that this trend could spark a regional confrontation, which could have dire consequences for international peace and security, especially with Israel strengthening its hostile positions towards Tehran and its allies in the region.

In the context of the Gaza and Lebanon file, Harfoush expects that the United States, under Trump’s leadership, will continue to provide unlimited political and military support to Israel, especially in the event of an escalation of the military situation.

He believes that this absolute American support may lead to the exacerbation of the humanitarian crises in Gaza, and may also make Lebanon an open arena for armed conflicts, as this situation may encourage Israel to escalate its operations in Lebanon under the pretext of protecting its national security, in light of international silence and full American support.

Harfoush warns that disrespecting Lebanese sovereignty could lead to an explosion of the situation and ignite new confrontations, the consequences of which would be dire.

Harfoush calls on the peoples of the world to take action and stand against what he described as “international silence” towards the Palestinian cause, considering that ignoring the suffering of the Palestinians is an implicit complicity with the escalating Israeli aggression.

Harfoush points out that with Trump's return to power, unconditional support for Israel is renewed, which may encourage it to further expand and aggression at the expense of Palestinian rights.

Harfoush calls on the international community to stop what he described as the "brutal war" that threatens the Palestinian existence, and to stress the need to protect the rights of the Palestinian people to live in dignity.