Kamal Tarabieh: No real American pressure to stop the Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon

Dr. Jamal Al-Shalabi: America is the decision maker in this war, and Israel is playing the role of the executive contractor on its behalf

Hatim Abdel Qader: The US administration, despite its desire to conclude a deal, is not able to pressure Netanyahu

Ihab Jabareen: Netanyahu's initiative to return prisoners is a maneuver to strengthen his positions at home and justify the continuation of the war

Dr. Munther Al-Hawarat: Israel does not want any steps that would enhance the Democratic administration’s chances of winning

Dr. Tawfiq Taama: Netanyahu is not interested in resolving the prisoners’ issue even if it leads to the death of all detainees in Gaza

The warnings issued by Abu Obeida, the spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, regarding the Israeli detainees held by the resistance in the Gaza Strip, have stirred up this file, which is no longer a priority in Israel, in light of the unprecedented escalation on the northern front and the expansion of the circle of fire on the two fighting fronts, which is evident in the brutal Israeli attacks on the cities and villages of southern Lebanon and the Bekaa, reaching the capital Beirut and its southern suburb, and in contrast, the missile attacks by Hezbollah, which extend to Haifa, Safed, Afula, and even Tel Aviv and its surroundings.

Rabbis from the far-right Religious Zionism party on Tuesday called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do everything possible to return the captives in the Gaza Strip, even if it was through a “responsible agreement that does not endanger Israel’s security,” as they put it.

This came in a letter sent by these rabbis to Netanyahu, the day after Abu Obeida warned, in a speech he gave on the first anniversary of the Battle of “Al-Aqsa Flood,” that he does not rule out the file of Israeli prisoners in Gaza entering a “dark tunnel,” in reference to the complexity of their file and the difficulty of Tel Aviv knowing their fate in the future.

America is busy with the upcoming presidential elections

Lebanese media figure and researcher in Arab and European affairs Kamal Tarabieh told Al-Monitor: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government do not pay much attention to the positions of the United States of America.

He pointed out that America's preoccupation with the upcoming presidential elections, which will be held in a month, provided Netanyahu's government with space to continue its policies in Gaza and Lebanon without real pressure from the US administration.

Tarabieh stressed that Netanyahu supports former US President Donald Trump, and therefore will not take steps that might give current President Joe Biden or the Democratic Party political gains, such as agreeing to a hostage exchange deal that might contribute to boosting Biden's popularity during the elections.

As for the Lebanese situation, Tarabieh pointed out that Israel had received a “green light” from the United States to continue its military operations in Lebanon, and that the American demands for a ceasefire were “verbal demands” that were not binding, given the lack of real pressure being exerted on Israel to stop these operations.

Tarabieh touched on the French-American initiative to sign a truce in Lebanon two weeks ago, but Netanyahu backed down from his commitment to it after initially accepting it. During this time, the Israeli bombing of Hezbollah sites continued, resulting in the killing of the party’s Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Netanyahu exploits US electoral vacuum

He stressed that there is no real American pressure to stop the Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, especially in light of the ambiguity surrounding the results of the upcoming presidential elections, and whether the new administration will be Democratic or Republican.

He added: "This vague situation allowed Netanyahu to continue his war on the Gaza and Lebanese fronts, as it seems that the war in Lebanon has now become the main front for Israel."

Tarabieh referred to recent information he received from French sources confirming that Netanyahu has escalated his demands towards Lebanon, as he is now demanding the complete disarmament of Hezbollah, in addition to the implementation of international resolutions 1701 and 1559. Netanyahu also threatened to stop cooperation with France if it recognizes the Palestinian state.

Tarabieh stressed that Netanyahu is exploiting this international political vacuum to continue his military adventure, and that the United States, which is the only international party capable of stopping this campaign, is not exerting any real pressure at this time, especially in light of the American commitments to fully support Israel.

US-Israeli maneuvering tactics to prolong the war

In turn, Dr. Jamal Al-Shalabi, Professor of Political Science at the Hashemite University of Jordan, confirmed in an interview with “I” that Israel and its leadership use repeated psychological tactics in their dealings with the Palestinians, especially in the Gaza Strip, in parallel with the Qatari and Egyptian efforts to secure a truce or ceasefire agreements in light of the beginning of the movement as a result of the war on Lebanon and Gaza, the Iranian response, and the atmosphere of ambiguity that prevails in the region.

Al-Shalabi explained that these tactics come within the framework of maneuvers aimed at prolonging the current crisis, noting that the war may extend for more years, in light of Israel's readiness to continue military operations until the end of the US elections in 2025.

Al-Shalabi pointed out that the next US president will have a major role in determining the future of the war, whether it is Kamala Harris, who may seek to pressure Israel to reach an agreement that preserves its interests, or Donald Trump, who is expected to provide absolute support for the policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and extend the war until the Israeli elections in 2026, an option he has ruled out.

Gaza Strip will need decades to recover

Regarding the current situation, Shalabi expressed his belief that Israel has destroyed the Gaza Strip in a way that hinders any future threat from the southern front, noting that the Strip will need decades to recover.

He added: This opens the way for the future US administration to play a decisive role in determining the course of events.

He explained that American support for Israel extends to multiple levels, from the huge financial support that exceeded $40 billion in one year, to the provision of advanced weapons such as F35 aircraft and phosphorous bombs used in bombing fortified sites in Beirut, southern Lebanon and Gaza. He said: “Without this support, Israel would be in a completely different position.”

Al-Shalabi stressed that Israel benefits from comprehensive American support, including political, military, and media support, which enables it to carry out its military operations with full American cover. Although the United States tries to show some modesty in front of its Arab allies, such as Egypt and Jordan, the real support remains with Israel.

Al-Shalabi expressed his belief that the United States is the decision maker in this war, and that Israel is playing the role of executive contractor to implement American interests in the region, pointing out that this strategic cooperation aims to keep Israel as the strongest country in the Middle East, especially after the weakening of major Arab armies such as Iraq, Syria and Egypt, which is in the interest of both Israel and America.

The US administration has become a "lame duck"

For his part, member of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, Hatem Abdel Qader, told Al-Arabiya: The US administration has now become like a "lame duck", after losing the ability to influence the decisions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Abdul Qader stressed that the US-Israeli relationship is witnessing clear transformations, as Netanyahu has become unbridled and not subject to any American pressure.

He pointed out that the United States bears responsibility for this situation, after it flooded Netanyahu with money and weapons, which made him act as an ungrateful ally of the United States. Despite the repeated attempts by the US administration to reach a ceasefire and conclude a deal, Netanyahu is the one who constantly obstructs these efforts, which further complicates the scene in the Gaza Strip.

Abdul Qader explained that the US administration, despite its desire to conclude a deal, is not able to exert real pressure on Netanyahu to accomplish it.

He expressed his lack of optimism about the possibility of reaching a swap deal in the near future, noting that any deal must include a cessation of aggression and Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, which Netanyahu rejects.

Abdel Qader also believes that Netanyahu is trying to buy time and is betting on the results of the US elections, trying to procrastinate until then. He stressed that the region is sliding towards chaos, as Netanyahu is trying to destabilize the Middle East and bring about changes in the regional balances, but he is so arrogant that he believes he is able to achieve this, while the Israeli people will be the ones who pay the price for this recklessness in the end.

Abdul Qader stressed that the issue is no longer limited to Gaza or even Lebanon, but is now related to Netanyahu's attempt to change the equations of the entire Middle East, pointing out that these aggressive policies will lead to serious repercussions in the region.

Netanyahu's position on the issue of returning detainees is not serious

In an interview with “I”, the expert in Israeli affairs, Ihab Jabareen, considered the position of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the issue of returning the prisoners held in Gaza to be unserious, and aims primarily to strengthen his positions inside Israel and justify the continuation of the war before the Israeli street and the international community.

Jabareen pointed to the timing of Netanyahu's announcement of his position two days before the expected event, noting that this step came as a preemption of the anniversary of October 7, which still affects the Israeli consciousness.

However, Jabareen stressed that Netanyahu is not showing any real seriousness towards returning the detainees, citing the pressures the Israeli Prime Minister was subjected to after the recovery of six bodies during the past period.

He added: This event put a lot of pressure on Netanyahu, but he chose to escape to the northern front to ease internal tensions.

Jabareen said that Netanyahu's position on the prisoners held in Gaza is nothing more than a pretext that he uses in front of the Israeli public and the international community, as he presents it as a preemptive step that justifies the war, and in order to throw the ball into Hamas's court, especially with the strict conditions that Netanyahu has set, such as demanding safe areas and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip, which are conditions that he will not give up.

Escape to the Northern Front

Regarding how Netanyahu bypassed the October 7 anniversary, Jabareen stressed that the northern front represented a great opportunity for the Israeli Prime Minister to bypass this sensitive date, which justifies the continued disregard for Gaza’s basic objectives, as the issue of prisoners has become a marginal priority in Israeli consciousness.

Jabareen also pointed out that "Netanyahu will not seek to achieve any form of surrender victory, as he cannot now, at this moment, provide any legitimacy to either Hezbollah or Hamas, as that would contradict his ongoing rhetoric over the past months."

Regarding US-Israeli relations, Jabareen stressed that the US administration, despite its current weakness, is not limited to President Biden. Relations with Israel are subject to the influence of US national security policies and the State Department, which gives Israel great freedom in its actions between the sea and the river. He also stressed the importance of cutting off Iran’s arms in the region, but at the same time the United States will not directly confront Iran as long as its goals can be achieved without that.

Jabareen pointed out that recent months have proven that the United States still fully supports Netanyahu's policies, even if Iran is not directly targeted.

The initiatives being talked about are not serious.

For his part, Jordanian writer and political analyst Dr. Munther Al-Hawarat told “Y”: There are initiatives being talked about at the present time, but they do not rise to the level of seriousness.

He pointed out that such initiatives come during the US election period with the aim of improving the image of the current administration before voters, especially in light of the attempts to release the six American hostages.

He added: These efforts aim to improve the position of the current US administration, whose candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, seem to have very close chances of success in this crucial period.

The dialogues made it clear that the Israeli side does not seem ready to listen to the Biden administration at this critical stage, as Israel considers the current US administration a "lame duck" for several reasons, most notably its belief that it is achieving successes on the ground and wants to complete these achievements.

Israel doesn't want Harris to win

He added that Israel does not want any steps that would enhance the Democratic administration's chances of winning the upcoming elections. On the contrary, it prefers that votes be directed towards Donald Trump, who criticizes the Biden administration for its failure to manage conflicts in the Middle East, including the hostage file.

The dialogues pointed out that Israel currently has a great ability to influence the US administration, pressure it, and reject its requests. This situation changes the equation significantly, especially since the Israeli government led by Netanyahu and the Israeli right believe that its agenda is proceeding successfully and in an organized manner.

Benjamin Netanyahu faces great pressure from within

In turn, the US-based political analyst Dr. Tawfiq Taama told “Ya”: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing great pressure from within Israel due to the protests calling for a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange deal.

He added: Despite these pressures, Netanyahu is not interested in resolving the prisoners' issue, even if this leads to the death of the detained Israeli prisoners.

Taama pointed out that a number of Israeli detainees were killed due to the indiscriminate Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip, and that Israel tried to carry out operations to rescue the detainees, but failed, which resulted in the killing and wounding of many Palestinians in those attempts.

"The Palestinian resistance changed its strategy in dealing with the prisoners it holds, which pushed Netanyahu to a single option, which is negotiations. His attempts to free the Israeli detainees through military solutions proved to be a failure, especially after a number of them were killed as a result of Israeli bombing," Taama added.

He stressed that the prisoner exchange deal reached last November was through negotiations, and is the only successful way to resolve this issue.

Hamas showed great flexibility in the negotiations

He explained that Hamas showed great flexibility in the negotiations, but Netanyahu rejects the conditions, while the Biden administration seems unable to pressure Israel to conclude the deal, as is the case with the Qatari and Egyptian parties.

Taama stressed that Netanyahu is the one who runs Israel's foreign policy, not US President Joe Biden, in light of what he described as the clear dependence on the United States to support Israel.

He pointed out that Biden provides full support to Israel, and that all of Israel's steps in the region come with an American green light.

Taama added: Biden's statements, which include his full support for Israel, reflect the weakness of his ability to pressure it, especially in light of the approaching US elections and his need to maintain the votes of Jewish voters and the support of Jewish donors to the Democratic Party.