For years, Israel and Iran have avoided direct confrontation, while Israel has secretly sabotaged Tehran's interests and assassinated its officials without claiming responsibility, and Iran has encouraged its allies to attack Israel while rarely doing so itself, The New York Times reported in an article on Thursday.

Now, the two countries appear willing to risk an unusually long, direct, and costly conflict.

After Israel's invasion of Lebanon to confront Iran's most powerful ally, Hezbollah, and Iran's second massive missile attack on Israel in less than six months, Israel appears prepared to strike Iran directly, more forcefully and more openly than ever before, and Iran has warned of massive retaliation if Israel does so.

The newspaper, which has historical ties to American and Israeli government institutions, quotes Yoel Guzansky, a former senior security official who oversaw Iran strategy in the Israeli National Security Council, as saying: “We are in a different situation now; we have a consensus in Israel – among the military, defense experts, analysts and politicians – that Israel must respond forcefully to an Iranian attack.”

For many Israelis, there is little left to lose: Iran’s efforts to hit the urban sprawl around Tel Aviv have crossed a threshold that Tehran had not breached before, even during its previous missile attack on April 13, which targeted air bases but not civilian areas.

Israel’s critics often see the country as the main instigator of unrest in the Middle East. But most Israelis see themselves as victims of ongoing attacks by Iranian proxies—particularly Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon—and feel they have not done enough to defend themselves. As a result, there are growing calls in Israel to hold Iran fully responsible for its allies’ attacks, even if that risks an explosive response.

“Many in Israel see this as an opportunity to do more to hurt Iran to stop its mischief,” said Guzansky, who is now a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli research group.

It is noteworthy that the official spokesman for the US State Department, Matthew Miller, reiterated on Wednesday in his press conference at the US State Department building that the United States does not want an escalation in the region, and that it has worked hard to prevent the war on Gaza from turning into a regional war, "but Hezbollah chose to escalate and launch successive aggressive attacks on Israel, and when Israel responded by eliminating the terrorist leader of Hezbollah, Iran attacked a sovereign state."

Miller stressed that "the administration still hopes that a comprehensive war will not erupt in the region, which is not in anyone's interest, but it understands the Israeli position, and that Israel is a sovereign state, and will make its own decision, and that the United States will support Israel with all its determination."

Israel has not yet decided exactly how to respond, a senior US official said, and the extent of its response will be influenced by the level of support — operational and logistical — provided by the United States, “as US forces helped Israel shoot down incoming missiles from both Iranian attacks.”

The exact nature of her response may not become clear until after the Jewish New Year, which lasts until sundown on Friday, according to all experts.

A US official told the New York Times that the White House had indicated in talks with the Israeli government that the relatively minor damage caused by Tuesday's Iranian missile attack called for restraint, but added that such appeals were expected to have little effect.

The Israeli counterattack is expected to be more forceful than its response to the first round of Iranian ballistic missiles last April, when Israel carried out limited strikes on an Iranian air defense battery and did not officially acknowledge its involvement in that attack.

The senior U.S. official said Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that they believe the April response was too small and too limited. Israeli leaders feel they were wrong to listen to White House urging at the time for a measured retaliatory strike, the official said. This time, Israel could target oil production sites and military bases, the officials said. Damaging the refineries could hurt Iran’s already fragile economy and send global oil markets into a tailspin a month before the U.S. election.

Experts believe that despite media speculation, Israel is not currently planning to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, according to four Israeli officials, although Israel sees Iran's efforts to build a nuclear weapons program as an existential threat, according to the newspaper.

Targeting the nuclear sites, many of which are deep underground, would be difficult without U.S. support. President Biden said Wednesday that he would not support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.

However, Guzansky urged that Israel’s response “must be seen everywhere. It must be felt by Iran. It must hurt Iran.” “And in order to do that, you cannot hit a radar station again.” “Israelis were deeply shocked by the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7 and its aftermath, which for them was an attack on the idea of Israel as a Jewish haven.”

Now, many have a greater tolerance for short-term risk in order to achieve long-term security, according to Sima Shine, a former intelligence officer who helped guide Israel’s strategy toward Iran. Shine told the paper that more Israelis want the government to do “things we didn’t do in the past, because we can’t be constantly attacked from all sides.”

“This is part of the miscalculation of all our enemies around us,” Ms. Shine said. “They do not understand what October 7 did to the Israeli people, and their willingness to take more risks.”

To the Israelis, Iran now appears more vulnerable than it has been for years. With Israel having killed much of Hezbollah’s leadership in recent weeks and destroyed large parts of the group’s missile stockpiles, Iran can no longer count on real support from its proxy in Lebanon if Israel launches a more aggressive attack on Tehran.

According to a senior US official, a significant number of the missiles failed on launch or before reaching Israeli airspace, exposing a weakness in Iran's ballistic missile arsenal that was first exposed in the April attack, which had a higher failure rate.

The senior US official said Israel's second successful defense against advanced ballistic missiles, coupled with Hezbollah's weakened state, would likely encourage Israel to choose a more aggressive response than it did last April.