1. Major General Wassef Erekat: The features of the ground invasion of Lebanon are determined by the goals of the Israeli army, which are “still vague”

Dr. Ahmed Rafiq Awad: Israel may eventually seek a settlement with Hezbollah to ensure the return of the northern settlers

Mohammad Manasra: Israel's appetite for killing may push it to annihilate Lebanese villages or at least make them uninhabitable

Bassam Zakarneh: Clear targeting of Palestinians in Lebanon's camps, and there is a state of alert among factions to provide aid

Hani Abu Al-Sabaa: Israel seeks to change the reality in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah is fighting the ground battle with a strong motive for revenge

Imad Moussa: Current ground operations are “reconnaissance by force” and Israel aims to achieve a larger project to control the region

In light of the escalating tension between Israel and Hezbollah, the Israeli ground invasion of southern Lebanon has raised questions about whether it has achieved its goals. Although Israel's declared goals are not clear, it seeks to weaken Hezbollah or even dismantle it completely, which raises questions about the possibility of achieving this.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, analysts, politicians and experts doubt Israel’s ability to achieve these goals, especially in light of Hezbollah’s military expertise and fortifications in southern Lebanon. Israel may also face a long war of attrition, which will expose it to great losses and complicate the implementation of its plans.

While attention is focused on southern Lebanon, writers and analysts warn that Israel may seek to destroy villages and infrastructure there, repeating previous scenarios of displacement and destruction.

Ambiguity about the real goals of the ground invasion

Retired Major General Wassef Erekat, a strategic military and security expert, believes that the features of the Israeli ground invasion depend largely on what Israel seeks to achieve in terms of goals in the future, although the Israeli army’s goals for a ground invasion of Lebanon are still unclear.

Erekat points out that if Israel’s goal, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated, is to “change the face of the Middle East for the next 50 years,” then the invasion will be carried out without any clear boundaries or controls, and may be characterized by unlimited aggressive expansion. However, if the main goal is to separate the fronts, ensure the return of settlers to the northern areas, and secure Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the border, then the invasion may be limited in scope.

Erekat points out that if the goal, as declared by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, is to completely dismantle Hezbollah, then Israel will need a much longer period of time to achieve this goal.

He points out that there is great ambiguity about the real objectives of the ground invasion, as the Israeli army has not clearly revealed its plans and final objectives.

However, Erekat believes that Israel will not back down from this path of ground invasion, especially in light of the megalomania that controls Netanyahu, who seems determined to implement his vision at any cost.

Continuation of the war and expansion of the fighting area

Erekat believes that this matter increases the possibility of the continuation of the war and the expansion of the fighting, which will result in more killing and displacement of Lebanese villages and towns, in addition to the destruction of the infrastructure in Lebanon.

In contrast, Erekat believes that the ground war will not be without challenges for the Israeli army, which will be exposed to a war of attrition that may cause it to suffer heavy losses.

Erekat points out that Israeli soldiers will find themselves in direct confrontation with Hezbollah fighters, which will make it more difficult to achieve their goals.

Regarding the ground invasion changing the course of the war, Erekat stresses that this depends largely on the steadfastness of the Lebanese resistance and its combat capabilities, which will determine the direction and orientation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

Erekat doubts the Israeli army's ability to withstand the Lebanese resistance and achieve its goals, pointing out that the Israeli goal of separating the fronts and removing Hezbollah from the northern border seems difficult to achieve.

Erekat points out that the Israeli army will eventually be forced to withdraw, pointing to historical evidence that proves this.

Erekat explains that the situation in Lebanon is completely different from the Palestinian situation, especially in the difficult geographical nature that serves its defenders, in addition to the supply and provisioning routes, communication and contact, and strategic depth, which gives the Lebanese resistance a great tactical advantage.

In this context, Erekat points out that Hezbollah and the Lebanese resistance have gained long experience through long years of confrontations with Israel, and have large human capabilities and military reserves.

Erekat cites the ability of the Palestinian resistance to withstand for a whole year so far, considering that the Lebanese resistance has greater capabilities that qualify it to withstand for a longer period and inflict greater losses on the ranks of the Israeli army due to the capabilities available to it.

The scope of the invasion will be determined according to field developments.

Writer and political analyst Dr. Ahmed Rafiq Awad believes that the scope of the Israeli ground invasion recently announced by the Israeli army will be determined according to developments in the military field, citing previous experiences, such as the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 and the 2006 war when the Israeli army retreated in the wake of the resistance’s strikes.

Awad points out that the Israeli ground invasion will face resistance, which may push Israel to enter into negotiations to get out of the impasse or slide into the Lebanese quagmire.

But Awad points out that in the absence of strong resistance, Israel may be able to penetrate to the heart of Beirut. However, he stresses that Israel's statements about a limited invasion in southern Lebanon may be merely a means of reassuring international public opinion, especially the United States, and of calming internal Israeli fears.

Establishing a buffer zone on the border with Lebanon

In this context, Awad explains that what Israel actually wants is to establish a buffer zone on the northern border with Lebanon, in which Hezbollah fighters would be kept away for several kilometers, and perhaps even beyond the Litani River, but he doubted Israel’s ability to achieve this goal.

Awad expects that Israel's goals will go beyond establishing a buffer zone, and that it will seek to destroy and displace the residents of southern Lebanon, especially the Palestinian camps, to pressure the Lebanese government and Hezbollah.

Awad points out that Israel faces little international pressure, which makes it feel free to do what it does in Lebanon, but Awad warns that things could deteriorate into a full-scale war, doubting Israel's ability to achieve its goals from a ground invasion.

Awad explains that since 2000 until now, Israel has not been able to achieve its goals in confronting Hezbollah, which has religious predispositions that push it to involve Israel in a long war of attrition.

Awad asserts that the Israeli army may suffer heavy losses in this war, which may push the Israeli home front to pressure its government to withdraw from Lebanon, especially since there is no clear tactical interest in occupying it.

Awad points out that Israel may ultimately seek a settlement with Hezbollah to stop the attacks and ensure the return of the residents of the northern settlements, and if it can achieve this through negotiations, it will not hesitate to do so, to avoid entering into a war that may not achieve its desired goals.

On the other hand, Awad believes that Hezbollah, despite the major blows it has recently received, needs a period of recovery, but it remains prepared to wage a long-term war.

Awad confirms that the party has experience and trained military cadres, and enjoys continuous Iranian support for several reasons, and Iran cannot abandon it.

As time passes and the war lengthens, Awad expects Hezbollah's capabilities to increase and that it will gradually regain its strength and health, which will make it more difficult for Israel to achieve its goals and that it will inevitably become embroiled in a war of attrition.

Unexpected Israeli measures

Writer and political analyst Muhammad Musa Manasra believes that the current Israeli invasion will focus mainly on southern Lebanon, warning of great dangers that could lead to the annihilation of Lebanese villages there, similar to what happened in the Nakba of 1948, when Zionist gangs resorted to destroying and erasing Palestinian villages and towns on both sides of the road between Jaffa and Jerusalem.

Manasra points out that Israel may take unexpected measures, pointing to the “Israelis’ appetite for killing and crime” which may push them to destroy and wipe out Lebanese villages in the south or at the very least make them uninhabitable.

Manasra believes that Israel will target the roads between Lebanon and Syria in an attempt to cut off supplies to Hezbollah.

Manasra believes that Israel derives its aggressive power from a feeling of euphoria and victory, especially after assassinating a large number of first and second-tier leaders in Hezbollah, which caused confusion in the party’s ranks and has not been able to resolve it until now, in addition to Israel’s feeling of strength due to its knowledge of America’s unlimited support for it.

Manasra believes that Israel, despite its ability to weaken Hezbollah, will not be able to eliminate it completely, as eliminating parties that are fortified by ideology such as Hezbollah is considered a very difficult task.

But Manasra points out that Hezbollah is not only facing Israel, but also the United States, global Christian Zionism, and NATO, which further complicates the difficulties it faces.

Hezbollah faces multiple challenges

Manasra explains that Hezbollah faces multiple challenges, including confronting an enemy supported by advanced technology and weapons, in addition to the existence of disputes within Lebanese society, as well as some organizational problems within the party itself.

Manasra believes that Israel's ability to achieve its goals from the ground invasion depends on the nature of these goals, especially the undeclared goals that may include eliminating Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, which will cause civilian casualties.

Manasra points out that Hezbollah is going through a very difficult phase in its confrontation with a technologically and militarily superior enemy, noting that the party’s possession of missiles is not sufficient for confrontation in wars.

However, Manasra asserts that Hezbollah's will will show heroism and bravery in combat, despite the large difference in strength between the two sides, but challenges remain as a result of the difference in strength.

Manasra points out that Israel is continuing to weaken and debilitate Hezbollah, which is the goal it may seek to achieve through this invasion.

The situation of Palestinians in Lebanon's camps is more difficult

Bassam Zakarneh, a member of the Fatah Revolutionary Council, explains that the conditions of Palestinians in Lebanon’s camps are more difficult due to the lack of full protection, amidst growing fears for their lives, as camp residents live in adjacent houses, which exposes them to great risks in light of the ongoing Israeli aggression.

Zakarna expressed his hope to secure the needs of Palestinian refugees, especially those who were displaced from their areas due to the intense bombing.

Zakarneh believes that there is a clear targeting of Palestinians in Lebanon, as prominent leaders of Palestinian factions, such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Hamas, and Fatah, were subjected to direct attacks that resulted in martyrs and wounded, as the Israeli occupation targets all Palestinian factions without exception.

Regarding the Israeli ground invasion, Zakarna confirms that this attack directly targets unarmed civilians who lack means of protection, calling for urgent international intervention to protect civilians.

Regarding the official and factional Palestinian measures, Zakarna explains that President Mahmoud Abbas issued direct instructions to the Palestinian Red Crescent, hospitals, medical centers and Palestinian institutions to open their doors to receive all those affected.

Zakarna points out that there is a full mobilization by the Fatah movement and the Palestinian factions in Lebanon to provide the necessary assistance in light of these difficult circumstances.

Questioning Israel's ability to achieve its goals

In his assessment of the ground invasion, Zakarna doubts Israel’s ability to achieve its goals, stressing that Hezbollah possesses greater military capabilities than it had in the 2006 war, and that the Israeli army will face heavy losses if it continues its attempts to penetrate Lebanon, pointing out that the situation in Lebanon is different from Gaza, as Hezbollah represents a huge military force.

Zakarna believes that the Israeli government failed to achieve its goals in Gaza, and believes that it will also fail in Lebanon, noting that Israel's real goal does not go beyond committing massacres against the Palestinians and Lebanese.

Zakarna points out that killing and displacement are the undeclared goal of the Israeli government, while the other goals that Israel seeks to achieve are beyond its capabilities in light of the ongoing losses inflicted on the Israeli occupation army by the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance.

Israeli attempts to change the reality in southern Lebanon

Hani Abu Al-Sabaa, a writer and political analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, believes that the “New Order” operation announced by the Israeli army in Lebanon, which includes a limited ground incursion of between five and seven kilometers into Lebanese territory, aims primarily to return the Israelis to the northern settlements in peace and to remove Hezbollah forces beyond the Litani River. However, this invasion may expand to include areas deeper inside Lebanon.

Abu Al-Sabaa explains that the Israeli ground invasion has already begun with operations by Israeli commando forces, as the Israeli army spokesman announced the control of military equipment that was prepared for use inside one of Hezbollah’s advanced tunnels.

Abu Al-Sabaa points out that the invasion is not limited to military operations only, but is accompanied by a massive media campaign aimed at influencing the psychology of Hezbollah’s popular base. This campaign includes dropping leaflets from the air and sending direct messages to the population in an attempt to weaken their support for the party.

Abu Al-Sabaa believes that Israel seeks, through this ground war, to change the reality in southern Lebanon and to remove the range of the missiles possessed by Hezbollah.

However, Abu Al-Sabaa believes that Israel has further goals, as it seeks to create a political front to rule Lebanon that is ready to normalize with it, and Israel believes that defeating Hezbollah can contribute to creating this climate.

However, Abu Al-Sabaa points out that Hezbollah did not stand idly by in the face of this attack, as it intensified the firing of missiles into the Israeli interior, including the bombing of Greater Tel Aviv with ballistic missiles, which was the largest attack since the beginning of the war. This escalation confused the Israeli security establishment, which had claimed that it had destroyed Hezbollah’s capabilities during the intensive air strikes.

Hezbollah seeks to prevent Israel from achieving a "victory image"

Abu Al-Sabaa believes that Hezbollah seeks, through this confrontation, to prevent Israel from achieving the “image of victory” that it seeks on the first anniversary of the October 7 war.

Abu Al-Sabaa points out that Israel, which withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2006 by closing the Fatima border gate and the exit of the last soldier from the south, will not be able to achieve a decisive victory in this war after 18 years of leaving the land to Hezbollah fighters.

Abu Al-Sabaa explains that Hezbollah fighters have gained extensive experience in ground warfare, benefiting from their effective participation in the Syrian crisis alongside the regime against the opposition, where they played a major role in defeating the opposition. Over the course of more than two decades, Hezbollah has been able to enhance its military capabilities in quantity and quality, which makes it today confident in its ability to inflict heavy losses on the Israeli forces in any ground confrontation.

Abu Al-Sabaa confirms that Hezbollah is fighting this ground battle with a strong motive to avenge the assassination of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, which will lead to an increase in the ferocity of its fighters on the ground, and make them more determined to inflict heavy losses on the Israeli forces.

The ground invasion of Lebanon will take on a comprehensive character

The writer and political analyst Imad Moussa believes that the Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon will take on a comprehensive character, even if the statements came that it is a limited and focused ground military operation. According to previous experiences, Israel announced in 1982 a military operation that would not go beyond the Litani, so the Israeli army invaded Lebanon and Ariel Sharon besieged Beirut for 88 days, which resulted in the final exit of the PLO from Lebanon, after the occupation and the damage inflicted on the attacking force.

Musa points out that the current ground operations are an information-gathering operation called “reconnaissance in force,” a method that aims to determine the number of resistance members, the type of their weapons, and their locations. After this information is gathered, the Israeli Air Force will intervene to destroy the firing positions and clear the area, thus opening the way for tanks to enter what Musa describes as “scorched earth,” with the ground invasion gradually expanding over time.

Musa believes that the success of this Israeli ground invasion depends on the ability of the Lebanese resistance to confront the occupation, retain the land, and force the Israeli forces to retreat.

The path may change when Israel admits its inability to achieve its goals.

Musa points out that the path may change when the attacking forces admit their inability to achieve the desired goals, and here diplomacy begins to move by proposing initiatives that seek to achieve the goals that the military force failed to achieve.

Musa believes that Israel is seeking, through this ground invasion, to achieve a larger project to control the region, considering that the ongoing war of extermination on the Gaza Strip, with Western and American support, is a clear message to the peoples and countries of the region. This message aims to show that countries that submit to Israel may escape war and destruction, while those who refuse to cooperate will face destruction, displacement, and extermination.

However, Musa stresses that the success of these plans depends on the resistance's determination and ability to endure and sacrifice.

Musa points out that no one can absolutely predict the results of this war, but this confrontation is different from all previous Israeli-Arab wars, as it is a war against an ideological force that fights with a Husseini culture, and is based on the legend of Karbala, where there is no room for retreat.

Musa explains that the Israeli government is obsessed with ideas of military expansion, and seeks to cancel all agreements and treaties signed with Jordan, Egypt, and the Palestine Liberation Organization. This reality of expansion and control forces Hezbollah and the axis of resistance to wage an existential war from which there is no return.