Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem: American initiatives to cease fire are a cover for the crimes of the occupation and to give Netanyahu more time

Akram Atallah: Israel may eventually have to accept what it previously rejected regarding stopping the war in Gaza

Sari Samour: The ongoing war is essentially American and Israel is merely a tool of the Western colonial project in the region

Hamada Faraana: The Biden administration is working to separate the war in Lebanon from Gaza, in line with the Israeli desire to separate the two fronts

Imad Moussa: The United States is no longer playing the role of mediator, but has become part of the ongoing aggression against Lebanon and Gaza

Talal Okal: The United States has been a full partner of Israel since day one, and their differences are tactical about how to manage the war

There are many concerns and doubts about the nature and objectives of the initiative that the United States intends to put forward to stop the fighting in Lebanon and resume the Gaza negotiations, as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned of the danger of escalation in the Middle East, claiming that Washington and its allies are working tirelessly to avoid the outbreak of a comprehensive war between Israel and Hezbollah.

These concerns come in light of the long experience of American efforts to stop the criminal Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, which were characterized by a lack of seriousness to say the least, if not complete complicity, which is an accurate description of the situation. Otherwise, how can we explain the United States’ abandonment of what its President Joe Biden himself proposed in his initiative, which was accepted by Hamas, only because these proposals were met with Israeli rejection? The matter does not stop there, but American officials went so far as to hold Hamas responsible for the failure of the initiative?

In separate interviews with Al-Arabiya, writers and political analysts said that the United States is seeking to achieve a delicate balance between maintaining its strategic support for Israel and avoiding the current war from expanding into a large regional war. Meanwhile, a question is being raised about the seriousness of international initiatives to stop the fighting, amid widespread skepticism about American intentions.

According to the book and analysts, Washington appears at this stage as a major supporter of Israel, providing it with military equipment, political and diplomatic cover in international institutions, and yet it continues to talk about ceasefire efforts, which has led some to point fingers at the United States for exploiting the time factor to give Israel more opportunities to achieve its strategic goals in the region.

Israel's defeat means America's defeat

The writer and political analyst Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem believes that the initiatives announced by the United States to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon are due to the United States’ realization that any ceasefire agreement in Gaza would be considered a defeat for Israel, and thus a defeat for itself.

Suwailem pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu succeeded during his recent visit to Washington in convincing the US administration and Congress not to rush into a ceasefire, assuring them that this would lead to their defeat as well, and that he needed additional time to avoid his military defeat in Gaza.

According to Suwailem, Netanyahu believes that his success in Gaza can only be achieved by destroying Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon, as he believes that victory over the axis of resistance requires eliminating Hezbollah in order to achieve any achievement within the framework of the “New Middle East” project.

He said: “From this standpoint, the American position adopts ‘backstage support’ for the war, considering this as complicity from Washington in supporting Netanyahu and his crimes in Lebanon and Gaza, as the United States wants to give him another chance so that he does not appear defeated, and so that he can later enter into any future agreement from a position of strength.

Suwailem believes that the American ceasefire initiatives are nothing but a cover for the crimes of the Israeli occupation, and that they only aim to give Netanyahu more time.

He pointed out that a ceasefire in Lebanon will not be achieved except through a tight coordination between the Gaza and Lebanese fronts, which is what Hezbollah and the axis of resistance insist on.

Just political maneuvers

Suwailem pointed out that the US administration and France, which proposed an initiative to cease fire in Lebanon, are well aware that reaching an agreement to stop the war on Lebanon is out of reach, if not impossible, and that these initiatives are nothing but political maneuvers.

Suwailem stressed that the real fear of the United States is losing control over the course of the war, which could lead to the outbreak of a wider regional war that Washington cannot control.

According to Suwailem, this fear increases as the US presidential elections approach, which explains the US administration's reluctance to allow Israel to expand the scope of the war, stressing that the United States will not hesitate to support Israel if a regional war breaks out.

Suwailem stressed that the dispute between the United States and Israel, if it exists, does not go beyond tactical differences with some Israeli leaders such as Netanyahu, but it does not touch the essence of the strategic relationship between Tel Aviv and Washington. The United States is committed to ensuring that Israel remains strong and dominant, whether Netanyahu is in power or not, and works to protect Israel from any existential threat, especially with the American fear of Israel’s disappearance from the map of the Middle East.

Regarding the current battle in Lebanon, Suwailem said there are two possibilities: either Israel may try to accelerate the process of destroying infrastructure and homes in Lebanon, but Hezbollah’s response may stop it from this escalation. The second possibility is that Israel may try to engage in a limited ground maneuver, not a large-scale invasion, as the Israeli army realizes that a war on Lebanon will not achieve its strategic goals, which it has proposed to return the residents of the northern settlements.

Hezbollah suffered a very big blow

On another level, Suwailem considered that Hezbollah was subjected to the biggest blow in the history of modern warfare after its communications network was targeted, its devices were blown up, and a number of its leaders were assassinated, but it succeeded in containing the shock and recovering from it, pointing out that if any other country had been subjected to such an attack, it would have collapsed, but Hezbollah proved its strength and ability to withstand.

"Israel found itself in a predicament as a result of its decision to wage war in Lebanon," Suwailem said, likening what is happening now to the policy of the Nazis, who resorted to adventure when they failed.

Suwailem pointed out that Hezbollah succeeded in dragging Israel into this predicament, and that it is not clear how Netanyahu or even the United States will be able to get it out of it.

Suwailem believes that the situation in the Middle East will not find its way to a solution except through a new American administration that stops the war, as the continuation of the war will lead to strategic losses for the United States. Suwailem expected that things will escalate in the Middle East, and the deterioration may lead to the entry of China and Russia as major players in the region on the economic, military, and political levels.

The United States is a direct partner in the war.

In turn, writer and political analyst Akram Atallah said that the war waged by Israel on the Gaza Strip cannot be separated from the American supportive role, as the United States provided Israel with money and weapons, including bombs, missiles and aircraft, in addition to using the veto in the Security Council in favor of Israel, which confirms that the United States is a direct partner in the war on Gaza.

Atallah described this participation as not just political or diplomatic support, but actual military intervention that contributes to the continuation of the genocide against the Palestinian people.

Regarding the initiatives, Atallah pointed out that what is being talked about regarding American and French initiatives to cease fire in Lebanon is nothing more than an attempt to calm things down, but he doubts the seriousness of these attempts.

According to Atallah, the next stage will be more complicated, as Israel refuses to cease fire in the Gaza Strip as demanded by Hezbollah.

Atallah explained that the United States is seeking to create the impression that it does not want escalation in Lebanon, in order to preserve its interests, which may be harmed if the war there extends.

Potential implications for US interests

Atallah pointed out that Washington gives Israel complete freedom of action in the Gaza Strip, including financing and arming, but the situation in Lebanon is very different due to the potential repercussions on American interests.

On the other hand, Atallah said that Israel may eventually be forced to accept what it previously rejected regarding stopping the war in Gaza, and he sees it as the most prominent scenario for the next stage.

Atallah considered that Hezbollah's current battle is nothing but a solidarity battle aimed at supporting Gaza, citing what happened during the humanitarian truce last November, when Hezbollah stopped firing rockets and shells for eight days automatically, as Hezbollah's responses are nothing but a reflection of the events in Gaza, and are not the main motive for the war.

Atallah believes that the solution to end this war is known as stopping the war on the Gaza Strip, but it is not expected from Israel, which will continue to cling to strategic locations such as the Netzarim and Philadelphi axes, which means closing the door to any possibility of concluding a deal between Hamas and Israel.

Atallah concluded by saying, "This scenario will also apply to Lebanon, as Hezbollah, after paying such a high price, cannot accept separating Gaza from Lebanon or withdrawing its support for the Strip.

America is able to stop the war if it wants to

For his part, writer and political analyst Sari Samour said that the current war is essentially American, as if the United States were truly interested in stopping the war on the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or any region where Israel is waging war, it would have been able to do so easily.

Samour pointed out that the claim that "Washington is unable to curb Israel" is inaccurate, as the United States is the one that encourages Israel, directs it, and controls its actions, considering that Israel is nothing but a tool of the Western colonial project in the region.

Regarding the ongoing initiatives and negotiations, Samour said: They must be dealt with with caution, noting that the possibility of the American initiative to stop the war succeeding is very slim.

Samour relies on previous experience, as Gaza witnessed a war that lasted a whole year and was full of futile negotiations, which he considered an Israeli means of deception and committing more crimes, which was proven by practical experience.

Sammour pointed out that what was tried in Gaza is being tried to be applied in Lebanon through proposals that seem like a waste of time, and not a real solution to the crisis or a way to stop the war.

Samour explained that the administration of US President Joe Biden is about to leave the White House, and if a new Democratic administration comes, it may not be the same as the current staff and may move towards a solution, but there is a possibility of Donald Trump returning to power, whose policy is not known exactly what it will be yet.

Samour pointed out that the Biden administration is seeking to try to calm things down relatively before its departure, adding, “Some rational voices in American and Western institutions, despite their support for Israel, sometimes intervene to save Israel from itself, due to its arrogant behavior and excessive use of force, which could lead to disastrous repercussions for its existence, especially in light of the Arab and Islamic situation.”

Three possible scenarios

Regarding the possible scenarios, Sammour made several predictions, the first of which is that the current initiatives will die as previous initiatives did, and the circle of war will expand to include more operations and mutual bombing, which is the most likely scenario.

He added: As for the second scenario, it is Iran's entry into the confrontation line, with the possibility of Israel expanding the scope of its military operations to Syria and occupying some of its lands, exploiting the weakness of the Syrian regime in order to achieve its colonial goals.

He continued: The third scenario, although unlikely, is the possibility of reaching a comprehensive deal through which Israel is curbed, especially after it realized that destroying homes and killing civilians and children will not break the will of the Palestinian or Lebanese people or the Arab and Islamic peoples.

In this scenario, Samour pointed out that Israel might accept what is available and reconsider its plans, especially in light of its attempt to return its settlers in the north and south, and in light of the ongoing threat to Israeli security in the deep areas, but if this scenario does not happen, we will be facing an ongoing war.

Deep political alliance between America and Israel

In turn, writer and political analyst Hamada Faraana considered that relations between the United States and Israel extend to a deep political alliance, but on the military side, the Israeli army is considered an integral part of the United States army, as if it were a battalion of the American army.

Faraana explained that the American military capabilities in the region are being used to support the Israeli army, which makes the alliance between them strategic. Also, all the wars waged by the Israeli occupation forces enjoy full support and agreement from the American army. From here, it is understood that the war currently being waged by the Israeli forces is nothing but a war supported in advance militarily, logistically, technically and intelligence-wise by the United States.

On the political level, Faraana pointed out that there are differences in positions between the Israeli and American governments, especially with regard to the war on the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

Netanyahu and the shock of October 7

Faraana believes that the United States is seeking to avoid expanding the scope of the war in the region, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects all American and international initiatives to cease fire in Gaza.

Pharaohs attributed Netanyahu's rejection of these initiatives to his shock at the October 7 attack and his failure to achieve his goals despite occupying the entire Gaza Strip, as he failed to end the Palestinian resistance and failed to discover the locations where the Israeli detainees were hidden and release them without an exchange. Netanyahu also fears that stopping the war will lead to his trial and political end, as happened with Golda Meir in 1973 and Menachem Begin in 1982. This is why he seeks to continue the battles so that his failure does not turn into a complete defeat.

In the context of his choice to continue escalating the conflict, Faraana indicated that Netanyahu transferred the war to Lebanon, with the aim of weakening Hezbollah as one of the most prominent symbols of resistance in the Arab region.

He said: Although the United States does not see any interest in expanding the war to Lebanon, it considers targeting Hezbollah's communications network and assassinating a number of its leaders sufficient, but Netanyahu seeks to achieve greater goals, which are the complete elimination of Hezbollah.

Initiative to separate the Gaza and Lebanon fronts

In the context of political initiatives, Faraana explained that the Biden administration presented a new initiative focusing on the war in Lebanon, completely separate from any initiatives related to the Gaza Strip. This initiative comes in line with the Israeli desire to separate the Gaza front from the Lebanon front, which reflects a joint Israeli-American strategy aimed at preventing the unification of the fighting fronts in the region.

Faraana put forward several possible scenarios for the developments of the next stage. The first scenario expects the clashes to continue without any significant achievement by either party, and the second scenario assumes the escalation of attacks leading to a ground invasion either by Hezbollah in northern Palestine or by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon.

Faraana added: As for the third scenario, it is the possibility of Arab parties from the axis of resistance intervening to support Hezbollah, which may require the United States to intervene to support Israel indirectly.

He continued: As for the fourth scenario, which is the least likely, it is the possibility of reaching an initiative to stop the war. Despite this, the Pharaohs tend to believe that the situation will witness a greater escalation, especially by the Arab parties supporting Hezbollah.

Giving Netanyahu the opportunity to destroy and displace Lebanese villages

Writer and political analyst Imad Moussa believes that the United States no longer plays the role of an honest mediator in any initiatives regarding the Israeli war on Lebanon or the Gaza Strip, but has rather become part of the ongoing aggression on Lebanon and Gaza.

Musa based his opinion on previous experiences, as he believes that the United States is exploiting the time factor to give the Israeli government, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, the opportunity to destroy the Lebanese Shiite villages and displace their residents.

Musa said that the aim of these steps is to create a humanitarian crisis represented by the problem of housing thousands of displaced persons, which will ultimately lead to fueling internal conflicts and the population’s rejection of the presence of forces they consider to represent Iran.

Moussa considered that this crisis would provide an opportunity for some forces supported by the West, America and Israel to ignite a civil war in Lebanon, under the pretext of rejecting Iranian influence in the country.

Musa noted that the Palestinian camps will become a target for destruction as part of the plan to eliminate the Palestinians' right of return.

American strategy aims to establish facts on the ground

Regarding the repeated American initiatives to cease fire, whether in Gaza or Lebanon, Moussa said that these initiatives are part of a fixed American strategy aimed at establishing facts on the ground imposed by Israel through destruction and genocide.

Musa believes that the Israeli army is seeking to achieve comprehensive subjugation through the use of excessive force, and that this war will not stop in the near future. Rather, Musa believes that Netanyahu aspires to drag NATO into a broader war targeting Iran after the confrontation with Hezbollah is completed.

Musa pointed out that the genocide operations in the Gaza Strip are continuing without receiving much media or political resonance on the Arab and international levels, while the Israeli army continues to destroy Shiite villages in Lebanon, in an attempt to remove these villages from the circle of strategic threat posed by Hezbollah to Israel.

Washington continues to provide political and military support to Israel

As for the writer and political analyst Talal Okal, he believes that the United States has been a full partner with Israel since the first day of the war, both in terms of goals and methods used.

Awkal explained that Washington continues to provide political and military support to Israel, including supplying it with weapons and mobilizing its forces in the region to protect it.

However, Awkal pointed out that there are tactical differences between Israel and America on how to manage the war and its continuity, especially after a year of war without achieving the basic goals that Israel was seeking.

Awkal considered that the diplomatic interventions led by the US administration aim primarily to limit the spread of the circle of fire in the region, in order to maintain stability of the situation, not to mix up the cards, and to prevent any escalation that might threaten the interests of the United States or Israel.

Awkal stressed that these interventions do not necessarily aim to stop the war, but rather to contain it and prevent it from getting out of control.

The region is not approaching any cessation of war.

Awkal believes that the region is not approaching any cessation of war, pointing out that the first week of the aggression on Lebanon aims to isolate the Lebanon file from the Gaza file, and also seeks to separate Hezbollah from the Lebanese popular environment that sympathizes with it, but Hezbollah succeeded in convincing the Lebanese people that it did everything in its power to spare the country the scourge of war, and that it is fighting for Lebanon’s sovereignty and to protect the rights of its people.

In this context, Awkal referred to Washington and Paris’ attempts to incite the Lebanese opposition and government in order to pressure Hezbollah, considering that these efforts come within the framework of American motives related to the presidential elections, as the United States seeks to gain the support of voters, whether they are supporters of Israel or opponents of it, through these policies.

Despite these efforts, Awkal does not believe there is a real possibility of stopping the war before the US elections, noting that if the Biden administration wanted to stop the war, it had the ability to achieve that.

Awkal believes that the war is heading towards further expansion, especially since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is counting on continued American support in all its forms. Awkal stresses that he is not one of those who surrender to the idea of defeat, noting that how the situation will ultimately stabilize remains unclear so far.