Initiative or maneuver?

After the escalation of the Israeli aggression on Lebanon, and the threat of the Israeli leaders to invade the ground, the United States appeared in cooperation with France in order to formulate new proposals to stop the war, and as usual, Israel exploited this proposal to appear with a face different from the reality of what it is doing in terms of aggression, as the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he gave the green light to the Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer to lead the window of diplomatic consultations, but Netanyahu's office returned and confirmed that there is a red line that Israel cannot give up, which is the removal of Hezbollah forces to the north of the Litani River, which is the demand and condition that may make the negotiations complicated, and the new proposals by the United States and France aim to stop the aggression on the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, and this is another window that Israel cannot accept, because it is interested in continuing the aggression on the Strip and imposing its military plans there.

The initiative stipulates a temporary ceasefire for 4 weeks in Gaza and Lebanon, intensive negotiations with Hezbollah and Hamas, mediated by the United States and France, to reach a deal within the four weeks, an agreement to return Israeli prisoners from Gaza, release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and an agreement to implement Resolution 1701 to remove Hezbollah from the border in the north.

The United States also aims, through this political movement, to prevent Israel from starting a ground attack, for fear of Tehran’s intervention, and thus the war’s scope deepens and may become a regional war, which may ignite a dangerous conflict in the Middle East. Hence, the American president seeks to exert strong pressure to reach a diplomatic solution six and a half weeks before the end of his presidential term. However, the truth that should not be forgotten by anyone is how Washington can lead new efforts aimed at reaching a settlement that ends the escalation in Lebanon while resuming prisoner exchange negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which have failed to do so for nearly a whole year?

Israel is betting on Hezbollah’s refusal to stop the support front in favor of the Gaza Strip, and its condition of stopping the aggression on Gaza in order to stop the firing of rockets on the northern front. Hence, this tactical step that Netanyahu wants, on the grounds that Israel is ready to reach an agreement, is only to grant it legitimacy to continue the escalating aggression that it is waging on Lebanon if Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, rejects this initiative, and this is something that is highly likely because Nasrallah wants Gaza first, not second.

Israel has fully prepared in the north and summoned two full army battalions, and the reduced political and security cabinet has authorized Netanyahu and Galant to make decisions regarding the Lebanese front. Hence, the statements of Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, in which he called on the army to prepare for a ground invasion in southern Lebanon, are clear signals that are very close to being implemented on the ground, given what we are seeing of Israeli preparations on the northern borders of Palestine and Israel’s efforts to achieve the goal of destroying Lebanon, based on the failure of all previous rounds of negotiations, whether in the Gaza Strip or Lebanon. Will the initiative succeed, or will the maneuver begin?

A question that everyone is looking for an answer to, which may not arrive, after learning lessons from what happened before Israel in the negotiations over the Gaza Strip, its procrastination, delays and conditions, which is something that may be repeated in the new negotiations because Israel, under Netanyahu’s leadership, is interested in continuing the conflict in the Middle East without the slightest consideration for the rights, feelings and dignity of the Palestinians and the Lebanese.