Arab and US officials tell MEE a 'big push' is underway as Israel and Hezbollah reach brink of all-out war

The Biden administration is rushing to achieve a weeks-long truce between Hezbollah and Israel that it hopes can provide an offramp to full-scale regional war, one Arab official and former US official told Middle East Eye.

The US is aiming for a 21-day pause in fighting, the former senior US official told MEE. The Arab official said that Biden administration officials are speaking with Lebanese and French officials to push for a deal.

A US official in the region also confirmed to MEE that a “big push” was underway to stop the fighting.

The talks come as world leaders, including US President Joe Biden, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati gathered at the United Nations. The US relies on Lebanon’s government to ferry messages to Hezbollah, a US-designated terror organisation.

On Wednesday, Israel told troops to prepare for a potential ground incursion of Lebanon, saying air strikes were being conducted “to prepare the ground for your possible entry”. 

Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli intelligence officer, told MEE that Israel would be likely to deploy ground troops in the event Hezbollah launches a massive strike on Tel Aviv or if fighting continues for weeks on end. 

"The ground manoeuvre is not only a threat but something Israel plans although there is no desire to implement this," he said. 

The escalation is a major challenge for the Biden administration, which former US officials tell MEE was angered by Israel's decision to launch more than 1,000 strikes on Lebanon earlier this week. 

MEE revealed on Tuesday that Israel submitted a three-page request for munitions and arms to refill existing stockpiles, underscoring how it may be girding for a longer war, including arrow system missile interceptors. 

One senior US official and a former US official told MEE that the White House and State Department were slow-rolling the request amid anger at Israel as it escalates in Lebanon.

But the US has previously ruled out using arms sales to leverage Israel into a ceasefire in Gaza and the success of this US truce initiative is far from guaranteed.

Hezbollah on their backheels

The Biden administration has been negotiating for months to achieve an elusive ceasefire in Gaza, but those talks have stalled.

The former senior US official and Arab official, however, cautioned about making comparisons between Hezbollah and Hamas, saying US, French and Arab officials believe the reality on the ground in Lebanon is different and might make a truce between Hezbollah and Israel more achievable.

 “Israel has put Hezbollah on their backheels. They aren’t in a good position,” the former US official said.

Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near daily fire since 8 October, after the group began firing rockets at Israel in what it said was solidarity with besieged Palestinians in Gaza.

But fighting seriously escalated last week after Israel detonated thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members. The attacks decimated Hezbollah’s communications and command and control network, analysts say.

On Monday Israel launched widespread air strikes against what it said were Hezbollah fighters, missile sites and arms warehouses. The attacks have killed at least 600 people.

Hezbollah, the world’s largest non-state armed actor, is also Lebanon’s most powerful political party, but the Lebanese movement backed by Iran doesn’t enjoy dominant support in Lebanon which is divided among Christians, Sunni and Shia Muslims.

Israel’s attacks were initially concentrated in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, the traditional heartlands of Hezbollah, but on Wednesday they were expanded to the northern suburbs of Beirut and parts of Mount Lebanon.

At least 90,530 people have fled the strikes, the International Organisation for Migration has said.