Dr. Ashraf Badr: Israel's insistence on removing Hezbollah from the border and returning settlers to the north makes escalation almost inevitable

Daoud Kuttab: The current escalation is not just a violation of the rules of engagement, but rather a declaration of war by Israel.

Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem: Hezbollah’s attack on sensitive sites in the north exceeded previous rules of engagement and reached new ceilings

Sari Samour: Israel and the axis of resistance realize that they have entered into a confrontation that carries the connotations of an existential battle and not a passing war

Suleiman Basharat: Hezbollah's response to Israeli attacks restored balance to the battlefield and kept the door open for escalation

Fayez Abbas: The war between Hezbollah and Israel has entered a new phase.. and there are no indications of controls or restrictions to limit it

Tensions have escalated on the northern front between Israel and Hezbollah, after the major attacks launched by the occupying state on Lebanon through two cyber attacks and a violent bombardment targeting the southern suburb, which resulted in a large number of martyrs, including senior military leaders in Hezbollah, in addition to thousands of wounded, and what followed in terms of a qualitative response by Hezbollah, which targeted sensitive military industry sites near Haifa with missiles, which raised fears of the confrontation slipping and expanding the scope of the war.

In separate interviews with “I,” writers and political analysts said that Israel aims through the escalation to weaken Hezbollah and force it to disengage from the Gaza front, which the party has so far rejected, which increases the possibility of an escalation of the war, although writers and analysts believe that the current escalation is still below the ceiling of a comprehensive war.

The chances of escalation are stronger.

Writer and political analyst Dr. Ashraf Badr presents two basic scenarios for the future of escalation between Hezbollah and Israel. The first is the possibility of Hezbollah accepting Israel’s conditions, which include disengaging from the Gaza Strip and withdrawing to the borders of the Litani River. Although this scenario is considered weak given Hezbollah’s repeated statements about its refusal to abandon support for Gaza and its willingness to pay the price, it remains a possibility in light of the ongoing pressure.

As for the second scenario, Badr points to the possibility of the escalation continuing with varying degrees of intensity. It could either develop gradually without reaching a comprehensive war or direct targeting of civilians and infrastructure, or the situation could worsen to the point of targeting civilians, infrastructure and vital facilities, followed by a possible ground invasion of southern Lebanon, suggesting this scenario.

Badr pointed out Israel's insistence on removing Hezbollah from the northern border and returning settlers to their areas in the north, which makes escalation almost inevitable.

Badr believes that Israel may resort to using its full military force without talking about using nuclear weapons, recalling the “North Gaza” scenario to implement it in southern Lebanon, as this scenario includes intensive bombing and the displacement of residents with the aim of establishing a buffer zone, which is in line with Israeli plans to ensure the security of the northern borders.

On the other hand, Badr indicated that Hezbollah may respond by launching more accurate and deadly missiles, including hypersonic missiles, similar to the missile that was recently launched from Yemen towards Israel.

Israelis unite behind Netanyahu in his wars

Regarding the internal effects, Bader believes that Israeli society will be united behind its leadership in this war, as the war on Hezbollah is considered a broad popular demand within Israel, especially with the desire to return the settlers to the north.

Although there are voices calling for a deal with the Gaza Strip to calm the northern front, these voices are still weak, do not enjoy much support, and their voices are not heard.

In Lebanon, Badr said society appears divided, and this division will increase as the debate over the war escalates. He pointed out that Lebanon, which is suffering from severe political and economic crises, may witness an increase in internal polarization, which may affect its ability to confront the upcoming challenges in a unified manner, but he believes that Hezbollah is likely to take control.

Either stop the war on Gaza or escalate in the north

The writer and political analyst Daoud Kuttab believes that the war between Hezbollah and Israel will not stop except in two cases. The first is reaching a deal regarding the Gaza Strip, in which case Hezbollah will stop firing rockets. The second case is Israel entering into a ground war adventure inside Lebanon, which will lead to heavy losses for Lebanon and Israel and perhaps a temporary occupation followed by a political agreement.

The book said that the continued exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah will not resolve the battle, and that a political solution is the only way to end the escalation.

Hezbollah is ready for all scenarios

Writers pointed out that Israel has the choice of reaching a deal or continuing the skirmishes, and the choice remains before it as to whether it wants to escalate matters or reach a peaceful solution.

In contrast, writers noted that Hezbollah appears to be prepared for all possible scenarios, and considered it more honest in its intentions than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Writers believe that the current escalation is not just a violation of the rules of engagement, but rather a declaration of war by Israel, as described by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. However, Hezbollah is not seeking to wage a comprehensive war, but rather continues its role as a support front for the resistance in Gaza, for various reasons.

He ruled out that the escalation would take a greater turn unless Israel decided to enter into a ground operation. However, the writers believe that such a step would not lead to a decisive end to the war or achieve a clear victory for either party, but would rather turn into a long-term war of attrition, ruling out the use of unconventional weapons in this escalation.

If a ground invasion occurs, writers expect that the losses will be great on both sides, both in terms of forces on the ground and among civilians.

Writers have pointed out that Netanyahu is seeking to drag the United States into a war with Iran, but he does not believe that things will reach that point.

Hezbollah strikes stun Israelis, refute Netanyahu's claims

For his part, writer and political analyst Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem said that the current situation indicates a possible escalation in the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, against the backdrop of the recent Israeli attacks on Beirut and the bombing of Hezbollah’s communications devices.

Suwailem pointed out that Hezbollah cannot delay its response for a long time, or that the response will not be simple or limited, after the strikes it received. The response extended deep into Israel and targeted air bases, military industries, and camps. However, the Israeli military censorship tried to downplay the size of these strikes, indicating that they targeted civilian or empty areas.

Suwailem pointed out that Hezbollah did not officially announce the details of its response, and was satisfied with an initial statement in which it indicated that its strikes came in support of Gaza, which increases the possibility of a new escalation.

Suwailem pointed out that Israeli society is in a state of shock after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements in which he claimed to have destroyed Hezbollah’s missile platforms, which made Israelis believe that the party was no longer able to respond. However, Hezbollah’s strikes that targeted sensitive and distant areas, reaching 81 km deep into Israel, astonished Israelis and refuted Netanyahu’s claims.

Israel cannot ignore Hezbollah's response

Suwailem pointed out that about 300,000 Israelis fled to shelters after those strikes, which confirms that Hezbollah has regained much of its strength that was affected in the past few days.

Suwailem stressed that the escalation could be major in the coming days, as Israel cannot ignore the response, as Hezbollah has proven that it possesses full capabilities to control and dominate the field, despite Israel's claims of achieving painful strikes against it, noting that Israel claims to disable Hezbollah's missile capabilities, but the reality on the ground indicates the opposite.

Suwailem explained that the strikes carried out by Hezbollah, which included the launching of 140 missiles at sensitive sites in southern and eastern Haifa, indicate that the previous rules of engagement have been exceeded and that new ceilings have been reached in the confrontation.

Suwailem did not rule out the possibility of using unconventional weapons in the conflict, noting that Israel might resort to using phosphorus or depleted uranium bombs, while Hezbollah is likely to possess unconventional weapons, although it is not yet known what it will use if the battles develop.

The booby-trapping of communication devices was done years ago.

Suwailem pointed out that the booby-trapping of Hezbollah's communications devices took place years ago and the bombing was carried out a few days ago, which confirms that Israel was targeting the party before October 7, and considers it a strategic threat to its existence, and it has feared Hezbollah's capabilities for years.

"It is unlikely that Israel will be able to return the displaced to the northern settlements under these circumstances," Suwailem added.

Suwailem explained that Israel now finds itself in a spiral of war that may last for years, and it will not be able to get out of it easily, considering that the ongoing war will not end without international intervention.

Suwailem pointed out that Israel cannot control the situation without waging a ground war between the two parties, but it would be very costly for Israel, as it would need to mobilize 100,000 soldiers to wage it, while Hezbollah possesses ground capabilities that far exceed those of Hamas.

Suwailem stressed that the resistance enjoys strong popular support in Lebanese society, unlike Israeli society, which suffers from chaos, which is important in the conflict of the environment and the popular incubator.

A phase of escalation that may take many forms

For his part, writer and political analyst Sari Samour said that the current phase of escalation between Hezbollah and Israel may take multiple forms, as violence may escalate all at once or gradually, depending on developments on the ground.

Samour believes that the current war, despite the use of some limited unconventional weapons, is still open to several possibilities, without there being any expectation of the use of nuclear weapons, for example.

Sammour confirms that this stage represents a qualitative escalation in the war, as Hezbollah found itself forced to enter into this confrontation that was imposed on it, as it targets its existence.

Samour added: "Israel and the axis of resistance realize that they have entered into a confrontation that carries the connotations of an existential battle, and not just a passing military war.

Regarding the impact on the Israeli interior, Samour points out that this war is in fact an “American war” that Israel is carrying out even if it is unwilling to do so.

Expect divisions within Israeli society to escalate

As time goes on, Samour expects divisions within Israeli society to grow, with the possibility of emigration abroad as a result of the increasing pressure of the war and the internal Israeli reality.

Samour points out that the Israeli opposition may find itself forced to silence its voice during the war, as a result of mounting internal pressures.

Samour also points out that Israeli society may witness many social and political interactions, but these transformations may take time to become clear.

In contrast, Sammour points out that Lebanon is facing deep divisions, reaching the point of cooperation with Israel against Hezbollah, recalling the model of the “Lahad Army” during the period of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, and that some parties may exploit the sectarian dimension in Lebanon.

Moreover, Sammour points out that Lebanon is facing stifling economic crises, which may worsen with the escalation of fighting, which may push some Lebanese to flee to Syria to escape the war.

However, despite these divisions and challenges, Sammour expects Lebanon to witness a state of national solidarity, supported by Arab solidarity, more than the Palestinians witnessed in their confrontations with Israel, due to the historical relations and regional complexities surrounding Lebanon.

Hezbollah will continue to support as long as the war on Gaza continues

Writer and political analyst Suleiman Basharat said that the Israeli escalation against Hezbollah and the northern front comes within the framework of a strategy aimed at forcing the party to disengage from supporting the Gaza front, which Hezbollah has so far rejected.

Basharat pointed out that Israel is not interested in reaching a political settlement that would grant the Palestinian resistance any gains, and therefore the war is expected to continue, and thus the support front for Gaza by Hezbollah will continue.

Basharat believes that there is consistency between the strategic goals of Israel and the United States in an attempt to weaken the axis of resistance and arrange the situation in the Middle East region, as this comes after Hamas, on October 7, caused confusion in the papers and plans that the United States had set for the region.

Escalation depends on Israel's actions

On the other hand, Basharat said that Hezbollah's response to the recent Israeli attacks restored balance to the battlefield, and the party kept the door open to the possibility of a greater escalation, and this escalation is dependent on Israel's actions.

Basharat pointed out that after a year of war in the Gaza Strip, many changes have appeared on the international scene, as there is no global satisfaction with the continuation of the war, and there are increasing pressures to reach political settlements, and to go to a new war that has no international cover.

He added: "If the Israeli occupation escalates the war on Lebanon in a comprehensive manner, the axis of resistance will respond in kind, which could lead the region to a wide regional war.

However, Basharat expected that things would remain within the limits of increasing escalation without reaching a comprehensive war at this time, with a commitment not to use unconventional weapons.

Basharat pointed out that the bombing of Hezbollah's communications devices, including pagers used for civilian communication, caused international embarrassment for Israel due to its threat to the security of civilian communications.

"So far, we are at the beginning of the escalation phase, where there is popular support for the war on both sides of Israel and Hezbollah. As the war's impact on communities increases, the voices calling for it to stop will grow louder," Basharat said.

Harsh Israeli strikes and quick response from Hezbollah

In turn, the expert on Israeli affairs, Fayez Abbas, said: We are living a new phase of the war between Hezbollah and Israel after a series of harsh and unprecedented strikes that Israel dealt to Hezbollah, which it considered an important military achievement. However, Hezbollah responded quickly through intensive shelling that reached the northern regions, all the way to Haifa, causing severe damage to a number of towns and settlements there.

Abbas pointed out that the fighting has now entered a new phase characterized by increased violence and an expansion of the scope of the bombing, as operations are no longer limited to a limited geographical area, but have become open on all fronts. In the latest response, Hezbollah targeted the Haifa area and Marj Ibn Amer, known in Israel as "Emek Yizreel", an area that contains an important military base for the Israeli Air Force.

Abbas pointed out that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant confirmed that the fighting will continue until Israel achieves its main goals, including returning the displaced to the northern settlements, which indicates that the current stage of the war is an "open" stage and there are no indications of controls or restrictions limiting it.

He added: Despite the heavy Israeli strikes, Hezbollah did not show any decline in its military strength, but rather increased the intensity of the bombing, launching more than 120 rockets towards the north in a short period. It seems that the assassination of first-rank leaders in Hezbollah did not affect the course of operations, as the leadership that succeeded them proved its ability to continue the confrontation.

Israel used unconventional weapons

In this context, Abbas pointed out that Israel used unconventional weapons, including advanced systems to disrupt communications, which led to a large number of deaths and injuries among Hezbollah's ranks. However, Hezbollah has not yet used its long-range missiles, which, according to experts, can reach Tel Aviv.

Abbas said that in recent hours, no new violations of the rules of war related to the use of certain types of weapons have been recorded, but there are expectations that Hezbollah may resort to using more deadly weapons if a ceasefire agreement is not reached.

Abbas pointed out that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah made it clear that a ceasefire by his party is contingent on stopping the Israeli aggression on Gaza and the occupied West Bank, which confirms that the war will not stop without stopping the aggression on Gaza.

Internationally, Abbas indicated that major alliances will not intervene directly in this war, as the United States, Israel's main ally, will be satisfied with providing military and intelligence support. In return, Iran will not intervene militarily directly, but will continue to supply Hezbollah with weapons.

As for the internal situation in Israel, Abbas confirmed that it was greatly affected by this escalation, as a state of terror and fear prevails among the population, and it is not unlikely that the Israelis will flee from the northern areas that are being bombed to safer areas.

On the political level, Abbas explained that this escalation had clear effects, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed down from his decision to dismiss Defense Minister Yoav Galant, who was supposed to be replaced by Gideon Sa'ar.