For the first time in a long time, the fear of another conflict between Israel and Lebanon is clearer than ever, as the writer Anchal Vohra reported in her analytical article in the American magazine "Foreign Policy".

The columnist noted that the Lebanese have begun to stock up on their basic needs, buying food, fuel and diapers in large quantities.

Some Western countries have put their forces on alert in preparation for evacuating their citizens from Lebanon, while others have called on their citizens to leave while commercial flights are still available for those who want to travel.

The writer pointed out that Israeli fighter jets have continued to fly at low altitudes in Lebanese airspace, breaking the sound barrier and shattering windows. Meanwhile, an Israeli drone broadcast a message in Arabic calling on the residents of the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil to revolt against Hezbollah.

There is a consensus in Lebanon that the outbreak of a full-scale war with Israel has become more likely than at any time since the Israeli aggression on Lebanon in 2006, according to the article.

It may not be the best strategy

However, according to the article, war may not be the best strategy available to the occupying state, if permanent deterrence is its goal.

Some argue that the situation that prevailed with Hezbollah before the Al-Aqsa flood may have been the best scenario for Israel, as most of the border areas have been quiet since 2006, as the writer believes.

At the same time, opposition to Hezbollah inside Lebanon was growing, as its alliance with Iran angered Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whose citizens are, according to the article, major investors in Lebanon, and the massive explosion that struck Beirut Port on August 4, 2020, angered the general public.

According to the analytical article, one of the strategies that the Israelis are now considering is to limit their attacks to Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon, a suburb of Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley. This would, in the writer’s opinion, further hinder Lebanon’s already collapsing economy.

The plan that deters it

But the main strategic goal remains to push the party's Shiite supporters towards other areas of the country based on sectarian balances, which threatens to exacerbate social tensions, according to the article, whose author adds that the Israelis believe that this plan can deter Hezbollah internally.

The author quoted Eran Lerman, the former deputy Israeli security adviser, as saying, "I am worried about the Shiites... There are many people who have scores they want to settle with Hezbollah since the Beirut port explosion or since the killing of Sunnis in the Syrian war."

Lerman claimed that the Israelis have nothing against the Lebanese people. Even if a large-scale war breaks out, Israel will try "not to attack the Lebanese infrastructure, and to look for people we can work with on the ground," meaning parties opposed to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Armed

The author claims that opposition to Hezbollah, even among segments of the Shiite community, has grown louder in recent years as the Lebanese currency has fallen in value, the country has been plunged into economic crisis, and more than 200 people have been killed in the Beirut port explosion.

It is not known for certain how the Lebanese will react when confronted with the Israeli enemy, as some analysts believe, and she notes that Israel’s strategy of relying on internal opposition and seeking local allies may or may not succeed if the Lebanese rally behind the group in national solidarity.

However, the author attributes the biggest reason why the Lebanese have not rebelled against Hezbollah to the fact that it is armed and has a “committed” army of supporters.

Source: Foreign Policy+ Al Jazeera