ARAB AND WORLD

Mon 19 Aug 2024 8:40 pm - Jerusalem Time

Ukrainian incursion into Kursk halts secret negotiations between the two sides in Doha

The Washington Post reported that officials told the newspaper that the Ukrainian attack on Kursk last week had disrupted secret efforts to reach a partial ceasefire with Russia.


Ukraine and Russia were poised to send delegations to the Qatari capital, Doha, this month to negotiate a landmark deal to halt strikes on energy and electricity infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would amount to a partial ceasefire and offer both countries a deadline.


But the indirect talks, with the Qataris acting as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials, and the potential deal and planned summit had not been previously reported, the newspaper reported.


For more than a year, Russia has pounded Ukraine’s power grid with a barrage of cruise missiles and drone strikes, causing irreparable damage to power plants and blackouts across the country.


Meanwhile, Ukraine has launched long-range drone attacks on Russian oil facilities, setting fire to refineries, warehouses and tanks, cutting Moscow’s oil refining by about 15 percent and raising gas prices around the world.


Some participants in the negotiations had hoped it would lead to a more comprehensive deal to end the war, according to the officials, who like others spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.


The willingness to participate in the talks signaled something of a shift for both countries, at least on the issue of a limited ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv would consider a full ceasefire only if Russia first withdrew all its troops from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which Russia invaded and annexed in 2014. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that Ukraine first cede four Ukrainian regions — including some not occupied by Russian troops — that the Kremlin has declared part of Russia.


Ukrainian and Russian officials have not met face-to-face for talks since the early months of the war, when delegations from both sides met for secret talks in Istanbul. Those negotiations, which were on the verge of fruition, eventually collapsed after the United States and Britain intervened, and then-British Prime Minister Theresa May flew to Kiev in April 2022 with a message from US President Joe Biden warning against a Russian-Ukrainian deal under Turkish auspices. The two sides later agreed to a grain deal that saw Russia temporarily lift its naval blockade, allowing Ukraine to transport grain across the Black Sea. That too collapsed months later when Russia pulled out of the deal. Other attempts to set up humanitarian corridors have largely failed.


A diplomat familiar with the talks said Russian officials postponed their meeting with Qatari officials after Ukraine’s incursion into western Russia. The diplomat said the Moscow delegation described it as an “escalation,” adding that Kiev had not warned Doha about its cross-border offensive.


"Russia did not cancel the talks, they said give us time," the diplomat said.


Although Ukraine wanted to send its delegation to Doha anyway, Qatar refused because it did not see a unilateral meeting as useful, the person said. The small Arab state has positioned itself as a powerful mediator in recent years and has hosted ongoing talks aimed at ending the war in Gaza.


In response to questions from The Washington Post, the Ukrainian presidential office said in a statement that the summit in Doha had been postponed “due to the situation in the Middle East,” but would be held in a video conference format on August 22, after which Kyiv would consult with its partners on implementing what had been discussed.


The Kremlin did not respond to requests for comment. The White House declined to comment for this story.


The Biden administration has long said that the timing and terms of a potential ceasefire with Russia are up to Ukraine alone to decide.


The diplomat familiar with the talks said that Kiev and Moscow had signaled their willingness to accept the arrangement in the run-up to the summit. But senior officials in Kiev had mixed expectations about whether the negotiations could succeed, with some putting the odds at 20 percent and others at worse, according to two people familiar with the talks, even if the Kursk attack hadn’t happened. But the planned talks and the potential agreement — now on hold — raise the stakes for Zelensky’s gamble.


Ukrainian and Western officials said Kyiv's move to push into Russia, which has occupied about 20 percent of Ukraine, was partly aimed at giving Ukraine greater leverage in any future negotiations.


Military analysts have expressed skepticism about the ability of Ukrainian forces to maintain control over Russian territory. Moscow has also continued to make gains in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine and has not diverted its forces from there to defend the new Ukrainian offensive.

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Ukrainian incursion into Kursk halts secret negotiations between the two sides in Doha