PALESTINE
Thu 15 Aug 2024 8:41 am - Jerusalem Time
"Thursday's Negotiations"... Losing Bets to Complete a Lost Deal
Dr. Muhammad Bu Taleb: The lack of control mechanisms for mediators, Western support for Israel, and Arab weakness reduce the chances of success
Ziad Abu Zayyad: No one can blame the resistance because it accepted Biden’s proposal and demands that the situation return to what it was
Ihab Jabareen: This is the first table that Sinwar is running. Does Netanyahu want to give him awards?
Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem: These are not real negotiations and Netanyahu seeks to legitimize his stay in the Strip, which the resistance does not accept
Dr. Ghassan Al-Khatib: It is possible to change the terms of negotiations to reach an agreement if the balance of power in the field changes
Mohammad Jaradat: The new round of negotiations comes in an attempt to clean up Israel's crime of assassinating Haniyeh and Shukr
Dr. Saad Nimr: Netanyahu does not seek to stop the war and wants to involve the United States in a regional war
Today, as scheduled, the truce negotiations are being held in the Qatari capital, Doha, amid a tense and charged atmosphere open to the possibility of escalation, especially in light of the new data accompanying the political scene in the region and the urgent international and regional moves to prevent an Iranian response to the assassination of the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, as well as Hezbollah’s response to the assassination of military commander Fouad Shukr, and the Ansar Allah movement in Yemen, in response to the bombing of the port of Hodeidah.
Perhaps what is new and different in these negotiations from their predecessors is that the Palestinian resistance has the card of retaliatory responses from Iran, Hezbollah and Ansar Allah, as these parties have expressed their readiness to abandon the idea of response if the price is stopping the war of extermination on the Gaza Strip, which is in the interest of the Palestinian people more than the responses themselves, but they have not dropped in any way the option of response, the timing of which has been left unknown and apparently linked to what is happening in Doha.
In separate interviews with Al-Quds and Al-Quds.com, writers and political analysts believe that Hamas’s position appears to remain firm in rejecting any fundamental changes in the adopted negotiating framework, which is based on the Security Council resolution and the US President’s initiative.
In contrast, analysts point out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is placing restrictions on the powers of the Israeli delegation, and indicating his intention to impose new conditions that may hinder any real progress in the negotiations.
The writers and analysts pointed out that there are major challenges facing Hamas and Israel, and the possibility of achieving tangible progress in the negotiations remains dependent on changing the balance of power on the ground.
Last Chance Summit!
“Political analysts give great value to the upcoming Doha summit,” Tunisian writer and political sociologist Dr. Muhammad Najib Bou Taleb told Al-Quds and Al-Quds.com. “Some consider it ‘decisive’, while others call it the ‘last chance summit.’ This is true to some extent, given that it comes after tragic developments in the region, especially after Israel assassinated its chief Palestinian negotiator, the head of the Hamas political bureau, and where? In Tehran.”
Bou Taleb pointed out that today's negotiations, Thursday, will be held in Doha with the participation of the intelligence chiefs of the countries concerned with mediation and negotiation, and this has many meanings, as the indicators of its success appear weak for the following reasons:
First: The mediators do not have the mechanisms to control the management of the negotiations after previous rounds characterized by the Israeli side’s continued evasion, and the revelation that Netanyahu is buying time to implement the program of war of extermination in Gaza, and to escape accountability inside Israel. The evidence of this is the additional impossible conditions he has set, and the situation has reached the point where this stubborn party has lost the minimum controls of political ethics through its provocative positions.
Second: The continuation of Western and American support for Israel under the pretext of protecting it from Iran and its allies in the region. How can a mediator mediate to stop the war and seek to achieve a prisoner and detainee exchange deal, while he is, in return, beating the drums of war by sending aircraft carriers and battleships to the region, and continuing to supply the occupying state with weapons?
Third: The Arab side is unprecedentedly weak, and has lost any official or popular political support. The evidence for this is the terrible silence in the institutions of the Arab League and the withdrawal of Arab action to fragmented, sluggish work that does not indicate the existence of any signs of hope for serious and effective support for the Palestinian cause.
Bou Taleb concluded by saying: “For these reasons and others, we do not expect any agreements to be reached between the parties involved, unless there is a serious American surprise by pressuring the Israeli side, whose illusions of division and disagreement have consumed much of the negotiating energy. We do not believe that this is possible now in light of the continued disparity in the balance of power between the opposing parties, and in light of the lack of justice in managing the negotiations and their rounds.”
Netanyahu will not budge
In turn, Jerusalemite writer and political analyst Ziad Abu Zayyad told Al-Quds and Al-Quds.com: All indications confirm that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not budge from his position, which seeks by all means to thwart any opportunity for a ceasefire and the release of prisoners and detainees, because for him, such a thing means the exit of the extreme right represented by Ben Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Smotrich (Religious Zionism) from his government, and thus the end of its term and opening the door to early elections, followed by accelerating the trial procedures in the corruption cases filed against him, and perhaps his imprisonment.
He pointed out that every time the two parties were about to reach an agreement, Netanyahu set new conditions that would guarantee the resistance's rejection of these conditions and the failure of the negotiations, because he did not want an agreement in the first place, stressing that Netanyahu was not satisfied with raising the ceiling of negotiations every time the two parties approached an agreement, but he also continued to carry out provocative acts of assassinations and bombing civilian and military targets, whether against the Palestinian resistance, Hezbollah or others, to escalate the atmosphere and lure the resistance, whether in the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon or even Iran, into a reaction that would increase the tension in the region and further involve the region in a cycle of action and reaction, leading to a comprehensive war.
Continuing the war and exploiting the remaining period of the Biden administration
Abu Ziad, a former minister and member of the Legislative Council, believes that Netanyahu’s goal of the escalation is not limited to ensuring the continuation of the war in Gaza, but rather an attempt to exploit the remaining period of President Biden’s administration, and play on the rope of the US presidential elections between the Democrats and Republicans, to drag America into carrying out a military action in Iran aimed at paralyzing the Iranian nuclear program, which is the strategic goal that Israel longs to achieve, but prefers that America carry it out on its behalf.
He stated that more than once, Israeli negotiators have protested Netanyahu's procrastination, as have many political leaders, especially former army generals who say that the war on Gaza has turned into a futile war, without any strategic goal, because wars are basically tools to achieve political goals, not war for the sake of war. He added: "These generals confirm that the war on Gaza has been stagnant for at least five months, when it would have been possible to reach a deal that would return the kidnapped Israelis and the bodies of the dead to their families, and it would have been possible to save the lives of many soldiers and officers who fall during the fighting in Gaza on an almost daily basis, as well as to create an atmosphere that would allow for a political agreement in southern Lebanon that would allow the return of more than eighty thousand Israelis displaced from the settlements in northern Israel to their homes.
Firm international intervention is required
Abu Ziad stressed that no one can blame the resistance, especially Hamas, because it accepted President Biden’s proposal and is not demanding anything more than a return to the situation as it was before the war, meaning a final cessation of the war, the return of the residents of the northern Gaza Strip to their places of residence without any conditions, and the withdrawal of the invading Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. All of these are self-evident, because rejecting any of these conditions means consecrating the occupation of the Gaza Strip.
Abu Ziad believed that "leaving the issue to Netanyahu means the continuation of the war, killing and series of crimes against our people in the Strip," stressing that "without firm international intervention against Netanyahu, there is great fear of the continuation of the futile negotiations and the continuation of the region's slide towards a comprehensive war." He said: "I hope that Netanyahu proves my assessments wrong, and that an agreement is reached."
Netanyahu is looking for excuses
For his part, the writer specializing in Israeli affairs, Ihab Jabareen, told “Ya”: “We are talking about a very dynamic period, and this week there are many variables coming in on a daily basis that could change the movements in every sense of the word.”
He pointed out that "the anticipation this week was about the Iranian and Lebanese response or not. It is clear that Netanyahu is looking for excuses. We saw at the beginning how he approved one envoy, who is the head of the negotiating delegation, the head of the Shin Bet, and then the entire delegation was approved, so there is a lot of manipulation." He pointed out that this manipulation comes under the name of a kind of scene of confusion and uncertainty about the next step, that is, a non-classical scene and from the few scenes that were in the past. Israel does not expect Hamas's next step in the negotiating track, and I believe this has an impact on the course of the negotiations.
October 7 anniversary is approaching
Jabareen said: “We have to realize two things that are somewhat contradictory. The first question: This is the first table that Sinwar has been running, so does Netanyahu want to give Sinwar awards? The second question: We are approaching October 7, so can Israel enter this anniversary without a deal and prisoners? These two contradictory questions are on the table, and I believe the answer lies in procrastination.”
Jabareen pointed out that "the Doha meeting is a framework conference and not a depth conference, and therefore Netanyahu can exploit this procrastination, especially if there are military movements on the ground in the coming days, and Netanyahu can cling to them as certain pretexts to prolong the negotiations, perhaps making them difficult at first, but sooner or later he will be forced and resort to them in every sense of the word within the month of September/early October."
The Israeli delegation to Doha has no real powers
Writer and political analyst, Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem, commented on the truce negotiations today, Thursday, in Doha, saying: “Hamas is determined not to accept any change in the framework of the negotiations that was approved in the Security Council resolution, which was based on the initiative of US President Joe Biden.
Suwailem pointed out that the Israeli response to the possibility of resuming negotiations came in two forms: the first is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not grant the Israeli delegation to the Doha negotiations any real powers, but on the contrary, its powers were restricted, and the second is that Netanyahu is focusing on discussing the negotiating framework and not implementing what was included in the Biden initiative and the Security Council resolution.
Suwailem added: This means that Netanyahu is seeking to legitimize three main issues: remaining in the Philadelphi corridor, returning to northern Gaza on Israel's terms, and maintaining Israeli restrictions on the Rafah crossing, which limits the possibility of Hamas being part of these negotiations.
Two different frameworks for negotiations
Suwailem pointed out that there are two different frameworks for negotiations, and that the United States did not express real opposition to Netanyahu's statements regarding reducing the powers of the Israeli delegation, which means that there is no possibility of reaching a real agreement, but rather we will return to a position in which Netanyahu seeks to impose his conditions.
Suwailem believes that there is no possibility of reaching an agreement, but rather we will go again to the fact that this delegation will carry the proposals and return them to Netanyahu, who wants to impose his conditions, and therefore there is no possibility of any formula for an agreement.
On the other hand, Suwailem pointed to the joint role of Egypt and Qatar in trying to convince the United States of the need to advance the negotiations, noting that the issue of the presence or absence of Hamas is not of great importance, but rather the most important thing is the framework governing the negotiations.
Suwailem expressed his belief that what is happening in Doha is merely a pretense of negotiations, rather than real negotiations. He raised the issue of a ceasefire in Gaza, then a ceasefire in southern Lebanon, since the front there is supportive of Gaza.
But Suwailem believes that imposing Israeli conditions may make it difficult to achieve this, especially with the current situation after the assassination of Fouad Shukr.
The United States is able to stop the war...but
Suwailem believes that talk about the possibility of returning to war indicates that there is no real basis for ending the war permanently, and that the United States can contribute to achieving a real ceasefire by removing the Netanyahu government, which it has not done so far.
According to Suwailem, "It seems that there is no basis for a permanent end to the war, but rather talk about the possibility of returning to war whenever Netanyahu sees that returning to it is appropriate, and thus Hezbollah will return to fighting, and this is an issue that if it is not seriously resolved, then it is not possible to talk about any possibility of the success of these negotiations."
"More importantly, if the United States wants a real ceasefire and an end to this massacre that the Palestinian people are being subjected to in the Gaza Strip, it can do so, even if the Netanyahu government is an obstacle. It can remove it, and everything that is being talked about is a lie because the United States can bring down the Netanyahu government if it wants, and the ball must remain in the United States' court, not in the court of Hamas or anyone else," Suwailem said.
A firm stance is required from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators.
Suwailem pointed out that the fluid position of Egypt and Qatar may play a negative role against Hamas, which requires them not to continue negotiations that do not achieve any progress, and they must say very clearly that they, as mediators, cannot continue these negotiations because Netanyahu wants to dictate his conditions in them, in parallel with the fact that the United States does not take decisive positions to make the negotiations successful.
Suwailem believes that the United States is seeking to prevent a regional war, rather than seeking a real solution, which makes the negotiations a political farce aimed at absorbing Iranian and Hezbollah reactions to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and Fouad Shukr without moving towards a real solution.
According to Suwailem, "At a time when the United States is supposed to be pressuring Israel, it is showering it with billions and unprecedented military aid."
Suwailem stressed that given the logic that is taking place, we are heading towards an inevitable war, noting that the mobilization taking place in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean is nothing but preparation for this war, and that Netanyahu wants to drag the region into a regional war that Israel does not want, but rather Netanyahu personally, if we take into consideration the position of the army and security and many Israeli positions.
Suwailem pointed out that the occurrence of war in light of the reality of the crisis that Israeli society is experiencing could be devastating, and therefore there is a real fear of going to it, but Netanyahu is holding the reins of affairs until this moment and is keen on the cohesion of the government, and is giving Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich broad powers to please them and preserve the cohesion of the Israeli government.
Netanyahu only cares about the cohesion of his government
Suwailem pointed out that as for Netanyahu, everyone can go to hell as long as his government is cohesive, and this is the truth, so once again the ball is in the United States’ court, and if this government does not fall, it will not be able, as it claims, to take a single real step towards stopping the war, and the resistance is not obliged to accept these conditions.
Suwailem pointed out that the finger-biting game will not work with Hamas, Iran, and the axis of resistance, and they will not allow Israel to have the final word, and this is the conflict now in the region.
Suwailem believes that the terms of the negotiations can be changed in favor of a balanced solution, and this depends on the United States of America, but it does not want to pressure Israel.
Suwailem expected the massacres in Gaza to escalate because Netanyahu has no alternative but military escalation, while Hamas and the resistance factions are preparing for a long-term battle and are economizing their military capabilities in preparation for that.
Suwailem said: "It is natural for Hamas and the resistance factions in Gaza to bet on developments in the region, and their development means that the resistance's position will be strengthened and the Israeli position will be further eroded."
Suwailem believes that Israel is facing a major dilemma and that its conflict with the axis of resistance is deepening, stressing that the repercussions of the recent assassinations indicate a deterioration in the situation inside Israel, and that the axis of resistance has made the assassinations a burden on Israel instead of being in its favor, and Israel has begun to realize the danger and the mistake that led it to this state, which is following Netanyahu and his aspirations, ideology, and coalition.
Negotiations and decision-making in the field
The writer and political analyst, Dr. Ghassan Al-Khatib, believes that the ongoing negotiations reflect the current reality, as they will remain in place as long as the reality on the ground is not settled.
Al-Khatib pointed out that if the field situation approaches a resolution, we may witness progress in the negotiations.
Al-Khatib said that Hamas's position that it is "not a party to the negotiations at present is due to the lack of appreciation from either party of the possibility of achieving real gains from these negotiations, which he considers merely an attempt to please public opinion and the United States."
According to Al-Khatib, there does not seem to be an appreciation on the part of either side, Israel or Hamas, that there is a chance to achieve real progress in the negotiations.
Israel seeks to reoccupy the Gaza Strip
Al-Khatib pointed out that it is possible to change the terms of negotiations to reach an agreement, if the balance of power on the ground changes, which may lead to softening some positions.
Al-Khatib added: "However, Israel is working towards reoccupying Gaza permanently and continuously, as withdrawing from the Strip will expose it to the possibility of returning to the previous situation. Israel also believes that it has paid a heavy price in order to remain in Gaza, and therefore it will be forced to remain and not withdraw."
As for the possibility of a regional war breaking out, Al-Khatib ruled out its occurrence, explaining that “it is difficult for Israel to enter into a war without American approval, which in turn is not interested in a regional war, and Hezbollah will not enter into a war without Iran’s approval, which has no interest in escalation.”
The one who is obstructing the deal is Netanyahu
In turn, writer and political analyst Muhammad Jaradat said: The Palestinian resistance is steadfast in its position, as it agreed to the deal about three months ago, and the real obstructionist of the deal is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Jaradat explained that the mid-August deadline that was announced regionally and internationally was aimed at pushing towards reaching a deal and agreement in Gaza, to contain the crisis and try to spare the region the consequences of a regional war.
This comes, according to Jaradat, at a time when the Doha negotiations coincide with the launching of missiles deep into Tel Aviv, which aims to maintain the balance of power and position, and for the resistance to confirm that Gaza is still part of the equation of the fronts in any future war.
Jaradat considered that the new round of negotiations comes in an attempt to clean up Israel's crime of assassinating the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, and the leader of Hezbollah, Fouad Shukr.
Jaradat believes that the resistance realizes that what is happening in the Doha negotiations is just a waste of time and does not want that, noting that the resistance at the same time maintains its cohesion in the battle, especially with expectations of the coming escalation in the next stage.
Hamas's non-participation in the Doha negotiations
For his part, Dr. Saad Nimr, a professor of political science at Birzeit University, said: Hamas’s non-participation in the Doha negotiations indicates that it had previously agreed to the deal in the form proposed by the US administration.
Nimr explained that Hamas considers new discussions in the Doha negotiations to be unnecessary at the present time, because the ball is now in Israel's court. Hamas is also waiting instead for a timetable for implementation and does not wish to discuss new conditions, which makes it see that the current negotiations are useless if there is no plan and timetable for implementation.
Nimr stressed that failure to reach results from the Doha negotiations seems inevitable, given that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the one obstructing them by adding new conditions that the resistance does not agree to.
Netanyahu's conditions to disrupt the agreement
Nimr pointed out that these conditions relate to matters such as: the names of the Israeli detainees, the veto on the names of some Palestinian prisoners, remaining in the Philadelphi corridor, and the return of the displaced to the north under Israeli supervision and control. Netanyahu also stipulates a written commitment from the American administration to return to fighting after the first stage of the deal, which the resistance rejects.
Nimr believes that Netanyahu is not seeking to stop the war, but rather aims to continue it, as he seeks to involve the United States in a regional war to restore Israel's deterrent power.
Nimr pointed out that Israel continues to bomb civilians and commit massacres to pressure the resistance to make concessions in the negotiations.
He pointed out that there are differences between the political level and the security and military levels in Israel regarding the war on Gaza, especially in light of the heavy losses suffered by the Israeli army in terms of equipment and soldiers.
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"Thursday's Negotiations"... Losing Bets to Complete a Lost Deal