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ARAB AND WORLD

Mon 12 Aug 2024 9:22 am - Jerusalem Time

Israel: Iran preparing to launch a large-scale attack on Tel Aviv

The American website "Axios" revealed that two informed sources told the website that the updated assessment provided by the Israeli intelligence services is that Iran is ready to attack Israel directly in response to the assassination of the political leader of Hamas in Tehran and is likely to do so within days.


The new intelligence assessment suggests the attack could come ahead of hostage-taking deal and Gaza ceasefire talks scheduled for Thursday, potentially jeopardizing the negotiations in what Israeli officials have said is a “now or never” moment for a potential deal between Israel and Hamas.


But one source with direct knowledge of the intelligence said the situation was "still fluid."


The assessment, which was formulated in the past 24 hours, represents a shift, the sources said.


Over the past week, Israeli intelligence agencies have believed that Iran has not yet decided on the timing and nature of its response and that international pressure and internal debates may push Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to postpone, restrain or reduce retaliation against Israel.


"We hope that our response will be timely and conducted in a way that does not prejudice the potential ceasefire," Iran's mission to the United Nations said in a statement on Friday.


But Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant spoke Sunday with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and told him that Iranian military preparations indicate that Iran is preparing for a large-scale attack, according to a source familiar with the call.


The Biden administration was preparing for a dramatic week of high-stakes diplomacy to try to prevent war in the region and secure a hostage deal and a ceasefire in Gaza.


Next week’s results will indicate whether the region will sink deeper into a permanent, expanding crisis and war — or whether there is a major change in course for the first time since October 7. The outcome, experts say, could shape President Biden’s legacy.


On Sunday, the White House's efforts suffered a major setback when Hamas announced that it had rejected an invitation from the United States, Qatar and Egypt to hold a final round of negotiations on a hostage-taking deal and a ceasefire in Gaza scheduled for Thursday.


Informed sources indicated that the Israeli intelligence community still believes that Hezbollah is likely to attack first in response to the assassination of Fuad Shukr, the party's top military commander, and then Iran will carry out its expected direct attack.


The sources said that the attacks launched by Hezbollah and Iran are likely to be larger than those launched by Iran last April and include the firing of missiles and drones at military targets in central Israel, including in the vicinity of civilian population centers.


Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant made the point during a visit to an IDF unit on Sunday, saying that Iran and Hezbollah “are threatening to hurt us in a way they haven’t done in the past.”


"I hope they will reconsider and this will not lead to war on additional fronts. We don't want this, but we must be prepared," Galant said.


According to Axios, a source with direct knowledge of the intelligence said that the internal debate in Iran is ongoing and that Iranian decision-making could change.


The source said that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are pushing for a more severe and broader response than Iran's April 13 attack on Israel, but that the new Iranian president and his advisers believe that regional escalation now would not serve Iran's interests.


"There is currently no change in the Home Front Command's directives to Israeli citizens," Israeli military spokesman Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a statement.

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Israel: Iran preparing to launch a large-scale attack on Tel Aviv