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Wed 07 Aug 2024 8:26 am - Jerusalem Time

"The region is on the brink of the abyss..." Is Netanyahu dragging America into a comprehensive war?

Firas Yaghi: Netanyahu's policies contribute to pushing the region into a comprehensive regional war and dragging America into a confrontation with Iran
 Sari Samour: The possibility of the region sliding into a comprehensive war exists despite everyone’s fears, but it can be contained
 Dr. Saad Nimr: The preludes to a comprehensive war depend on the response of Iran and its allies, and Netanyahu seeks to implicate America and Western countries
 Samer Anabtawi: The occupation government is facing an internal crisis, and Hezbollah and Iran cannot remain silent in the face of escalation
 Dr. Rifat Sayed Ahmed: Iranian revenge will be limited and the region is on the verge of a tactical war, not an open one
 Oraib Al-Rantawi: The key to calm in Gaza is in Netanyahu's pocket, and no one in the region wants a comprehensive war except him
 Fadel Tahboub: Israel is pushing towards a broad regional war with the approval and support of the United States


The Middle East is witnessing an escalation in tensions that could drag it towards a comprehensive regional war, in light of the escalatory policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on several fronts, and the attempt to drag the United States and Western countries into a broader conflict with Iran and its allies, which threatens to turn the escalation into the outbreak of a comprehensive regional war that may include additional international parties.


In separate interviews with Al-Quds.com, political writers, analysts and professors of political science believe that there are multiple possibilities for the development of the situation, including the possibility of the United States and its allies intervening to support Israel against Iran and its allies, which could lead to a response from global powers, such as Russia and China, amid growing fears that other countries could join the war if they feel that their interests are threatened.


The writers and analysts point out that the possibility of avoiding a full escalation and comprehensive war remains through serious diplomatic intervention, especially by the United States, to pressure Israel to stop the attacks and resume political dialogues. However, the current conditions remain ripe for the situation to explode into a comprehensive war.

On the brink of a regional war..
Writer and political analyst Firas Yaghi believes that the region may be on the brink of a comprehensive regional war in light of the current situation on the ground, pointing out that the policies pursued by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may contribute to pushing things in this direction.


Yaghi believes that Netanyahu is seeking to drag the United States into military escalation, especially with Tehran, which could lead to a large-scale military confrontation in the region.


Yaghi warns that the coming days may witness a major escalation between Israel and its allies on the one hand, and Iran and its axis on the other, and this escalation may slide into a comprehensive regional war, pointing out that Netanyahu's goal from this escalation is to restore Israel's ability to deter and achieve what he calls absolute victory, although this is not in line with the strategic principles of the State of Israel, which begin with returning prisoners and confronting the fronts individually rather than unitedly.


According to Yaghi, there is a possibility that the United States and its allies will intervene to support Israel against Iran and its allies, which may drag Russia and China to Iran's side without direct intervention.


Yaghi points out that the presence of about fifty American military bases in West Asia increases the possibility of targeting them, which may drag countries in which these bases are located into war under the pretext of protecting their sovereignty. Egypt and Turkey may also intervene if the war threatens their interests.


Yaghi points out that the countries that will enter the war may find themselves forced to do so, as a result of the situation slipping into a comprehensive war, which Netanyahu is planning.


Yaghi believes that there are real preparations for war in the region, and that escalation can be avoided if the United States intervenes seriously to stop the aggression on Gaza and launch an effective diplomatic movement that would avoid a comprehensive war through real pressure on Israel to stop the escalation.


Yaghi points out that there are two opposing equations: the American-Israeli equation that rejects the defeat of Israel, and the Iranian equation that rejects the defeat of Hamas in Gaza, stressing that failure to reach a compromise may lead to the outbreak of a comprehensive regional war.

The possibility of the region slipping into a comprehensive war
Writer and political analyst Sari Samour confirms that there is a great possibility that the region will slide into a comprehensive war, even though everyone fears this and does not want war.


Samour points out that the current data is worrying, with the presence of Israeli stubbornness and arrogance, criticizing that the world has become a hostage to only seven million Israelis.


Samour points out that Israel lacks the capacity to wage a ground war in Lebanon, but it relies on great arrogance and American support.


Samour points out that there are several possible scenarios for the outbreak of war, all of which are possible, but no one can predict what might happen. However, Iran and Hezbollah may respond to the Israeli attacks, leading to an exchange of responses and an escalation of confrontations, which may drag in other parties that were not willing to participate in the conflict. There is a possibility of countries such as Russia, China and Turkey intervening, despite their negative stance during the war on Gaza. However, if these countries provide qualitative support to Iran and its allies and supply them with weapons, the balance of power in the war may change.


Samour stresses that no one is prepared for the catastrophic consequences of war, but there is a possibility to contain the crisis and prevent its escalation into a comprehensive war.


Samour points out that Israel, after the events of October 7, is suffering from great confusion that has affected it as a state, causing it to commit massacres and defend them openly.


Samour asserts that the Israeli massacres have contributed to the lack of rebuilding a positive image of Israel or accepting it as a state with which peace can be discussed or absorbed into the region.

Dr. Saad Nimr: Netanyahu seeks to ignite the region with a comprehensive war.
Dr. Saad Nimr, a professor of political science at Birzeit University, confirms that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to escalate the situation in the Middle East, trying to drag the region into a comprehensive war and involve the United States and some Western countries in helping Israel in a wider war.


Nimr points out that Netanyahu is determined to respond forcefully to the strikes that Israel may be exposed to from Iran, Hezbollah and Yemen, in an attempt to increase the escalation in light of the lack of clarity of the American position, despite its commitment to protecting Israel's security.
According to Nimr, the situation could develop into a comprehensive regional war, with the possibility of an Iranian response and its allies, followed by an Israeli response targeting Lebanon and civilian sites, which could provoke Hezbollah. If this escalation occurs, Israel may seek to bring in international alliances to support it in the comprehensive war, or the concept of the New Middle East may be revived.


Nimr explains that the Israeli army is fully aware of Israel's unpreparedness for a comprehensive war in light of the military attrition in Gaza and the shortage of soldiers and military equipment.


He points out that Israel is currently seeking to mobilize the support of Western countries to help it confront any comprehensive war.


Nimr stresses that Netanyahu seeks to enter into a comprehensive war despite Israel's lack of adequate preparation for it, and that the preludes to a comprehensive war depend on the response of Iran and its allies, but Israel may absorb the resistance's responses, so expectations of the outbreak of a comprehensive war may decrease.

The response from the axis of resistance has already begun.
In light of the ongoing escalation and the resistance axis’ insistence on responding directly and violently, writer and political analyst Samer Anabtawi believes that the current situation opens the door to several expected scenarios. Despite the diplomatic efforts and mediations that have been made, these attempts have not led to tangible results, which threatens to increase the escalation.


Anbatawi points out that the response from the axis of resistance has already begun from the first day, in terms of the state of confusion and the impact on the economic and societal situation of the occupation, although the nature of the military response is still unclear.


According to Anbatawi, the first scenario expects the axis of resistance to launch a strong but non-destructive strike, followed by Israeli responses that may lead to the intervention of mediators to calm the situation.


The second scenario, according to Anbatawi, includes a mutual escalation between the two parties that may lead to a comprehensive regional war, which may include the intervention of other parties, while the third scenario is the most extreme, as it indicates the possibility of crises escalating to the point of intervention by major powers, which may lead to a world war.


Anbatawi explains that the current circumstances are ripe for war to break out, despite the widespread criticism and rejection of it. The Israeli occupation government, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing a severe internal crisis, while Hezbollah and Iran cannot remain silent in the face of the escalation, which makes the response predictable and has major consequences. Anbatawi confirms that there are preparations and readiness on both sides that may indicate the possibility of a comprehensive war, although a diplomatic solution is still possible.


Anbatawi points out that the Israeli occupation, which suffers from a weak deterrent capacity and the rise of internal extremism, is trying to drag the United States into a wider conflict, despite its refusal to intervene directly.


Anbatawi points out that if Israel gets involved, America may be forced to intervene directly, which could greatly expand the scope of the war and involve other unexpected countries.

tactical warfare
Dr. Rifat Sayed Ahmed, strategic expert and director of the Jaffa Center for Strategic Studies in Cairo, predicted in a statement to Al-Quds.com that the region would not slide into a comprehensive war, but rather into a tactical war or a limited war.


He said: Hezbollah will certainly take revenge, but what the party is doing is that it is working in a mostly hostile environment, a Lebanese environment that seizes the opportunity for the party to slide into a comprehensive war. The party is wary of an internal enemy and an external enemy. It is taking revenge for the killing of Fouad Shukr in its own way, but it will remain within the framework of a limited war.


Sayed Ahmed added that the insult represented by the assassination of the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, inside Tehran by the hands of the Israeli Mossad through Iranian agents from within, in addition to the Gulf states, domestic and regional aviation, and Russian damage, all of these factors will mitigate the Iranian reaction, and there will be limited Iranian revenge that does not slide into a comprehensive war.


He stressed that the region is on the verge of a limited regional war and not an open war, expecting that the region will take a limited form of revenge, Hezbollah will take revenge on its part, and the aggressive war on Gaza will continue on the other hand, the war of attrition will continue by the Popular Mobilization Forces and the Houthis in Yemen and Iraq, and Iran will be struck within the framework of limited regional strikes, which may be represented by an American or Israeli target, or the passage of Iranian aircraft to Israel, all within a limited framework.


The director of the Jaffa Center said, "If a comprehensive regional war does not take into account the day immediately following the war and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and Fouad Shukr, then we are facing a limited regional war, not an open war."


Netanyahu wants to drag the American bull by the horns
Oraib al-Rantawi, Director General of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies in Amman, stressed that all parties want calm except Netanyahu, noting that the key to calm is in Gaza and in Netanyahu's pocket.


He told "I": If we exclude Benjamin Netanyahu and the extreme right in Israel, I do not think that any of the other parties in the region or the international community wants to go to a comprehensive war. No one wants it or is ready for it. The United States, which is a hundred days away from the elections, does not want a war that opens multiple fronts that affect its presence in this region, especially in Syria and Iraq, and perhaps in some neighboring countries, nor does Iran, which is preoccupied with many internal and regional concerns and is in a phase of transition of power, want to go to a comprehensive war.


He added: I believe that Hezbollah, the main player in the region, does not want a war that could end with heavy losses for Lebanon, which can barely catch its breath, following the economic hardship that has squeezed it over the past years. No one wants a comprehensive war.


Al-Rantawi continued: I believe that the Israelis are seeking this, and Netanyahu wants to drag the American bull by the horns to enter into a war through which he can direct devastating blows to Iran, Hezbollah, the Palestinian resistance, and the Houthis.


He pointed out that the United States, unfortunately, is being dragged behind Netanyahu, and says that it wants to build a regional alliance to defend Israel, but it has not yet been able to extract the key to calm from Netanyahu's pocket or impose enough pressure on him to push him to resort to the option of calm, but rather it is mobilizing fleets, planes and military bases to defend him.


Al-Rantawi stressed that so far the war scenario does not seem certain, but it cannot be avoided or withdrawn from consideration if things slide into undesirable consequences. Iran cannot stand still after the painful and humiliating blow it suffered in Tehran with the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, and Hezbollah, whose southern suburb was torn apart twice in this war, the first time with the assassination of martyr Saleh al-Arouri, and the second time with the assassination of martyr Fouad Shukr, cannot stand still either, and it cannot leave the door open for Israeli arrogance. The strike is coming, the size of the strike, the goals it will seek, and the results it will entail. The size of the Israeli response to the Iranian response coordinated with some parties of the axis of resistance are what will decide whether this war will turn into a broad regional confrontation, or whether we will be on the hot fire of a comprehensive deal.


He said: In my opinion, the blood of Haniyeh and Shukr has placed the region at an important crossroads, either a major explosion that could affect the entire region, or a major breakthrough starting from Gaza, the key to the solution and war in Gaza.


Al-Rantawi stated that if a settlement is reached in Gaza, the parties will be pushed two or three steps back from the edge of the abyss, and if the situation deteriorates, these parties will find themselves forced to slide to the bottom of the abyss. This matter is in Washington’s hands, either to speed it up or to prevent it, so the ball is in its court.

Israel has led to a wide regional war
Jerusalemite political analyst Fadel Tahboub told Al-Quds.com: Israel has brought matters to a broad regional war, and what Israel is doing in Lebanon and other regions is pushing towards a broad battle, because the axis of resistance has become not only annoying to Israel, but also to the United States, because the Middle East region is considered the kingdom of America, that is, an American arena.


He pointed out that the presence of the resistance axis team, which includes Yemen, Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, has become a concern for the United States and not just for Israel, and hence America is pushing Israel to expand the battle, and what Israel is doing to expand the battle was with the approval of the United States, stressing that Israel and America are pushing the region into a broad regional war.


At the same time, Israel seeks to drag the United States into a confrontation with Iran in order to strike the nuclear reactors.
Tahboub stressed that Israel rejects a ceasefire because it receives support from the United States, so the battle will continue.

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"The region is on the brink of the abyss..." Is Netanyahu dragging America into a comprehensive war?