In 17 points, Eran Etzion, former deputy head of the Israeli Security Council, summarized the reality of Israel 300 days after its war on the Gaza Strip.

This came in a situation assessment published by the former security official on the X platform:

1. Israel is facing a dangerous and multi-dimensional strategic situation. Political, strategic, security, legal, moral, and economic.

2. The gap between reality and perception of reality, among large segments of the Israeli public, and among most members of the government and coalition, is a huge and extremely dangerous gap.

3. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is well aware of the dimensions of failure and is not detached from reality, has decided to raise the stakes. He is igniting a comprehensive regional war, forcing Iran to be dragged directly into it, and hopes to force the United States to be dragged into it as well, and he does not have the ability to shape the results of this war.

4. The US administration has reached a point of historic weakness as a result of the accumulation of unfortunate "operations" and circumstances.

5. Europe is focused on the war in Ukraine, the Russian threat, and the threat of the Trump administration.

6. Russia and China see the opportunity to continue undermining the global order and American hegemony, whether through the war in Ukraine, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or a regional war in the Middle East at the worst possible time for the United States.

7. Iran is in a very good position. It has become a vital link in the Russian-Chinese axis, and has proven that the “ring of fire” model through proxies works perfectly, and Israel has no response to it, as Tehran’s countermeasures are very embarrassing to it, but it will respond to it, and it does not change the rules of the game at the strategic level.

8. The American attempt to “form an anti-Iranian coalition” has already been thwarted, through Tehran’s role in the October 7 attack, in Hezbollah and the Houthis entering the battle, and in managing a successful war of attrition against Israel.

9. True, this coalition against Iran worked well on the “Night of the Missiles” and proved its potential, but Netanyahu’s refusal to accept Biden’s plan several months ago thwarted the big move, prevented Israel from achieving a historic strategic achievement, and dug us a huge hole that will be very difficult to climb out of.

10. This morning we are on the verge of a serious deterioration. When the government is run by a clearly incompetent person, who deliberately endangers national security, destroys the present and destroys the future of us all. Just to stay in power and evade justice for his many crimes and actions before and after October 7.

11. The leaders of the IDF and the security establishment are at a loss. They understand the situation and the seriousness of the situation well, but they are afraid to take a public stand, and Netanyahu is aware of their weakness and is exploiting it.

12. Let’s say it as bluntly as possible: In a regional war in the current context and timing, Israel will not win, under any circumstances. Israel is more vulnerable than any of its enemies, and certainly than the “strangling ring” coalition as a group.

The absorptive capacity of the Houthis, Hezbollah, Lebanon, and certainly Iran, is much greater than that of Israel. A small country in terms of territory and population, a Western country, and one that is up to its neck in a 300-day war that it has not won, should not start a wider war with enemies stronger than Hamas.

A country that is being asked by all its friends to stop the war and reach an agreement to release the hostages and a ceasefire should not dismiss these proposals with contempt, and expect overwhelming support in the form of arms shipments and a veto at the United Nations. Stopping the war on terms favorable to Israel will not happen.

A country whose economy is already suffering from the worst crisis since 1973 should not increase the risks and burden the economy with another unbearable burden. A country whose reserve forces have been exhausted and whose regular army has been damaged should not send it into a more difficult war without being able to end it on good terms.

13. All the extremists (war advocates) in the government, the media, the networks and the public are required to answer one question: What is the realistic end state of the regional war you are promoting? What does an agreement look like that will end the war with Lebanon? What does an agreement look like that will end the war with Iran?

In the end, you do not even have a convincing answer for the “day after” in Gaza, the simplest, smallest and weakest of these arenas…

The truth is that none of them have any answer, and Israel cannot “defeat” Iran on its own.

It is very difficult for Israel to end this war, and it will not only need Iranian approval – which will of course require a heavy price – but it will also need Russian and Chinese approval, and these two powers have no interest in shortening the duration of the war, quite the opposite. It is in their interest to prolong it, and to expose the negligence of the United States, which “is not even able to restrain Israel.”

This means that Israel could deteriorate into very long months of war with an intensity it has never seen before.

14. All commentators and media were supposed to deal with all this and only this. But most of them are in another universe. In this parallel universe, Israel has only to decide, to be "offensive even at a high price." The future seems quite clear: seemingly never-ending wars of attrition between Israel and Iran and its proxies.

This dark future, what Naftali Bennett called "Sparta of the Middle East", what Netanyahu called "life on the sword", what Smotrich and his rabbis called "our most beautiful days", and what the evangelicals called "the war of Gog and Magog". After which all the Jews will see the light and become Christians, this is the future that Netanyahu and the members of the government of destruction are cooking up for us.

16. Therefore, whoever believes that this is a "war without a choice", and whoever believes that this entire analysis is wrong, is welcome to propose an alternative analysis and argue. And whoever realizes the seriousness of the situation is required not to tolerate it, but to fight its perpetrators.

17. The competent government must take advantage of the setbacks to turn to the United States, Egypt, Qatar and the entire international community and say: We are interested in signing the deal now, help us bring Hamas to the negotiating table, help us reclaim Gaza and build an effective and pragmatic Palestinian government, help us build a new regional order, based on the Biden plan, which we are all in.

Source: Israeli Press

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