Politico newspaper reported that US intelligence services believe that a large-scale confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to erupt in the next few weeks if Israel and Hamas fail to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.

American officials are trying to convince both sides to stop the escalation - a task that will be much easier with a ceasefire in Gaza. But this agreement is still in tense negotiations, and American officials are not confident that Israel and Hamas will agree to the agreement proposed by US President Joe Biden (last May 31) in the near future.

According to what official sources in President Biden's administration told the newspaper, Israel and Hezbollah have formulated combat plans and are in the process of trying to purchase additional weapons.

It is noteworthy that both sides have said publicly that they do not want to go to war, but senior Biden officials increasingly believe that “violent fighting” is likely to break out despite efforts to try to prevent it.

The risk is now higher than ever in recent weeks, according to another senior US official, who, like others in the Politico report, was granted the right of anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence.

Experts believe that the war between Israel and Hezbollah may ignite a conflict that will force the United States to help defend Israel, which will push the United States to engage in a war in a region that it has tried for many years to leave. Such a war also risks another humanitarian catastrophe, which constitutes a severe blow to the global aid system (and all its organizations) at a time when this system is already suffering from severe pressure in its attempts to deal with the catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

According to the newspaper, American intelligence provides a slightly more conservative assessment than those coming from parts of Europe. Some European countries estimate that war between Israel and Hezbollah could break out within days.

Many have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon, and Canada is also preparing to evacuate thousands from the country, while the US State Department on Thursday issued a travel warning for American citizens, urging them to “strongly reconsider” traveling to Lebanon.

Two senior officials stressed that it is unclear exactly when the war could begin, but noted that Israel is trying to quickly rebuild its stockpiles and the capacity of its forces.

National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said Thursday that the administration is working to reach a “diplomatic solution” that would allow Israeli and Lebanese citizens to return to their homes.

“We also continue our efforts to reach an agreement that will lead to a permanent end to the war in Gaza,” she added, believing that “a ceasefire and hostage agreement in Gaza will accelerate the possibility of progress, including lasting security and calm along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.” “This deal is now in Hamas’ court; the decision is in Hamas’ hands.”

The Biden administration has tried for weeks to persuade the two sides not to go to war, as senior American officials, including Amos Hochstein, the envoy to the Middle East, visited Lebanon and Israel in order to calm the situation in the last two weeks.

Despite these efforts, senior administration officials said that escalating tensions on Israel's borders and the lack of any significant movement in ceasefire negotiations were heading toward war.

A senior Biden administration official told reporters on Wednesday: “Nasrallah’s logic... is that it is all related to Gaza, and until there is a ceasefire in Gaza, the clashes and shooting at Israel will not stop.”

US officials told Politico that intelligence indicates that the catalyst for war — a major attack by either side, for example — is likely to occur without warning.

It is noteworthy that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, who visited Washington this week, told reporters on Wednesday that Israel “does not want war.” He added: "The goal is to return our citizens to their homeland safely. We prefer to do this through understandings, but we are preparing for all possible scenarios."