Tue 21 May 2024 1:21 pm - Jerusalem Time

Analysts to "Al-Quds": Raisi's killing will not affect Iranian policy

Shaheen: The Iranian Republic is a state of institutions that will not be affected, and there is no political vacuum

Al-Jarbawi: Talk about planning the incident is speculation, and it is not likely that there is a conspiracy theory

Anabtawi: What happened will not affect Iranian policy or negotiations with the United States

Abu Ghosh: Israel will not dare to make a scandalous public contribution after seeing the Iranian response

The announcement of the killing of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and a number of their companions, opens the doors to all possibilities regarding whether this was the result of an accidental accident, or perhaps hostile parties bear responsibility, but political analysts and writers confirm that what happened will not affect politics. Iranian.

Raisi and Abdullahian were killed as a result of a helicopter crash the day before yesterday, in which they were on board, after they returned from a visit to Azerbaijan for the purpose of opening a joint dam between the two countries, and their deaths were announced yesterday, Monday morning.

Political writers and analysts interviewed by Al-Quds believe that the incident of the killing of the Iranian President and the Iranian Foreign Minister will not affect Iranian international policy and in the region, nor will the Iranian internal front be affected, since the Iranian Republic is a state of institutions.

Writer and political analyst Khalil Shaheen believes that the killing of Raisi, Abdullahian, and their companions does not indicate the existence of a planned act, and that there is an official Iranian position that it is not a conspiracy. However, despite this, all possibilities are possible, but that their killing was planned is weak, and the possibilities about Their killing in a planned operation is just speculation.

Shaheen points out that no one has an interest in assassinating them, even if there are internal conflicts over power. Things will not reach this point, as there are elections and institutions. Even Iran’s external enemies have no interest in that, and they have matters that can be exploited against them through elections, and their assassination will come. There are alternatives with the same approach, and if there is an assassination, it only happens for reasons of revenge, and this is unlikely.

Shaheen says: "It is true that there are internal conflicts in Iran over governance, but they are resolved by elections, and they cannot reach the point of assassination in this way, which may lead to a civil war. Moreover, despite the differences, there are no conflicts over changing the regime's ideology."

He points out that there is no political vacuum in Iran, as there is a vice president, there is Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and he has broad powers, and there is a committee that manages the country’s affairs until the elections are held, and there is also that Iranian elections are held according to the law within a maximum period of 50 days.

According to Shaheen, despite this, Iran during the coming period will be preoccupied with what happened as a result of the sudden incident, and will maintain calm, but there are no indications of a change in Iranian policy in the region, and Iran is an institutional state, and has an army, and if something happens, it will be able to Confront him.

For his part, writer and political analyst Dr. Ali Al-Jarbawi: “The Iranian regime is cohesive, well-established, has an ideology and a vision, and is able to overcome the crisis, because the ruling system is institutional, there is the administration of the Guardian Jurist, and the absence of someone who does not change the regime.”

Regarding the possibility that the incident was planned, Al-Jarbawi says: “Everything that is being talked about is speculation, and I do not favor the conspiracy theory.”

Al-Jarbawi confirms that the crisis of the killing of the Iranian president and foreign minister will be overcome. He says: “I do not see that there will be severe repercussions as a result of what happened, and things will go smoothly after absorbing the shock. The Iranian regime is capable of handling what happened.”

He continues: "The one who rules these matters is the guardian jurist from the top of the pyramid, and there are crises that the Iranian regime is dealing with, even if the event was major after the killing of the president."

Meanwhile, writer and political analyst Samer Anabtawi says: “The Islamic Republic of Iran has an important role in supporting the Palestinian cause, and from the moment the loss of the plane was announced, the Palestinian people have been following what is happening.”

He points out that "it is too early to accuse anyone, and it is possible that the incident was caused by weather conditions, and it may have been planned, but what ends the controversy is the results of the investigation, which is still in its infancy, and if it is discovered that it was a planned act, this will have major and dangerous repercussions."

Anabtawi stresses that the Islamic Republic of Iran is a cohesive institutional state, and elections are held periodically, and there is a vice president who leads the state until the elections are held. I do not expect that what happened will affect Iranian politics, nor will the negotiations with the United States be affected.

He says: "There are totalitarian regimes in Iran, and in crucial decisions they need the president, but if an attack occurs on them, they will take their role."

Anabtawi points out that the whole world followed what happened around the president’s plane incident and the announcement of his death and his companions, which confirms the importance of Iran’s regional and international role, and many countries offered to provide support to it after this incident.

For his part, writer and political analyst Nihad Abu Ghosh says: “Iran is a country surrounded by enemies, and there are Israeli attempts to sabotage and target Iran, given its accusation of mobilizing Palestinian factions against Israel. I do not rule out anything regarding the incident of the killing of the Iranian president and his companions, but I do not believe that Israel She dares to make a scandalous public contribution, especially since she saw the Iranian response after targeting the Iranian consulate in Syria.”

Abu Ghosh continues: “All possibilities exist regarding the reasons behind the incident, but it is important to point out that the plane that was carrying the president and his companions is old, up to 50 years old, due to the sanctions imposed on Iran, and it may not be prepared to deal with such an atmosphere.”

Abu Ghosh believes that the incident in which the Iranian president was killed will not affect the policies of the Iranian state, and the president is part of those policies, and Iran is a huge country in terms of area and population, as well as the size of the economic project.

Abu Ghosh says: “For us as Palestinians, Iran is a brotherly and friendly country, and it provides support by supporting the resistance and the Palestinian people. The president’s departure is a loss, and will not affect Iran’s position on the Palestinian issue.”

It is believed that what happened was not carried out by the Iranian opposition, as it does not have the ability to assassinate or penetrate the president’s plane. We must wait for the investigations, the results of which will be determined by experts and specialists. If the results of the investigation indicate that the event was planned, this will determine the nature of dealing with the next stage.

It is noteworthy that Iran became an Islamic republic in 1979, when a popular revolution overthrew the regime of Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi, and the clerics took over the reins of power under the leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who became the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and the head of the ruling regime in Iran, while the Islamic Revolution ended The rule of the Shah, which, with its modernization programs and severe suppression of opposition, antagonized broad religious, political, and popular sectors.

The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran now supervises public policies in the country, assumes command of the armed forces and intelligence, and is elected by the Leadership Council of Experts. The Leader is succeeded by the President of the Republic, who is elected by direct popular vote, chairs Cabinet sessions, and forms the government.

Multiparty presidential elections are held every 4 years, and Iranian oversight bodies select or exclude candidates for the presidential elections, and the Iranian president has the right to assume the presidency for only two terms.

On the other hand, Iran's geography consists of rugged plateaus and mountains, separated by the most densely populated plateaus, dense rainforests are concentrated in its north, the country's largest desert is located in the northern part, and plains extend along its coast.


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Analysts to "Al-Quds": Raisi's killing will not affect Iranian policy