Israeli military analysts estimated, on Friday, that the possibility of an Israeli invasion of Rafah is fading, especially due to the presence of approximately 1.4 million Palestinian civilians in the Rafah area. One analyst pointed out that the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was the first to realize this situation, but because he adhered to his coalition and ensured the survival of his rule, he repeated the phrase “absolute victory” in the war on Gaza.

According to the military analyst in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Ron Ben Yishai, there is “grave fear” in the Israeli security apparatus and army, “and not only in Washington,” of a complete ground invasion of Rafah before the displaced people are evacuated from it. “A scenario like this would very likely develop into a humanitarian catastrophe, the size of which no one can predict, and into a political catastrophe that Israel and we as citizens will have difficulty dealing with morally and militarily.”

He added, "It is now clear to the Israeli army, Shin Bet, and the security apparatus that the main obstacle to a decisive operation in Rafah is humanitarian and political, not military."

Ben Yishai considered that the Israeli army should transfer Palestinian civilians from Rafah to the Khan Yunis area, claiming that they are “safe areas.” According to him, Israel informed the American administration that it would carry out this evacuation in order to launch the invasion of Rafah, which was approved by the war cabinet, “to quickly dismantle the Rafah Brigade affiliated with Hamas.”

However, he indicated a shift in the American position, two weeks ago, and the administration moved from telling Israel, “Enter Rafah, but,” to “Do not enter,” after the American administration became certain that such an invasion would claim the lives of a huge number of civilians, and informed Israel that “we saw the destruction.” What you caused in Khan Yunis, even though you pledged that you would act with greater caution in the northern Gaza Strip. We fear that this is exactly what will happen in Rafah as well.”

According to Ben Yishai, the American administration threatened that an invasion of Rafah would push it to take tough steps against Israel, which would cause “a rift with the United States that will take years to heal. We may not only lose the military and political aid that we receive from our greatest sponsor, but also the ethical alliance with it as well. He pointed out that the leaders of countries friendly to Israel are threatening it with sanctions directly or through the United Nations, in the event of an invasion of Rafah.

For his part, the military analyst on Channel 13, Alon Ben David, pointed out in his weekly article in the newspaper “Maariv”, that “Netanyahu realized before everyone else that the world would not allow us to occupy Rafah, so he turned it into the Holy Grail without which there would be no 'Absolute victory'.

Ben David considered that "the artificial crisis he created against the United States this week, due to the UN Security Council resolution, revealed that Netanyahu is the last person concerned with the occupation of Rafah. He only wants to chase 'absolute victory' and for it to never end."

He added, "If Netanyahu really wanted to win over Hamas, he would have adopted the UN Security Council resolution and announced a ceasefire for two weeks remaining until the end of the month of Ramadan, as a deadline for the return of all the kidnapped. And at the same time announced that if the UN resolution is not implemented and all the kidnapped are not returned, "Israel will see itself free to continue the military operation as it pleases."

However, Ben David pointed out that “the unnecessarily long period of our stay in Khan Yunis changed the circumstances. As the situation appears now, Israel has no legitimacy to occupy Rafah.”

According to him, if a prisoner exchange deal is not reached soon between Israel and Hamas, “this means that we are heading to a battle in the north. This requires the best brains in the Israeli army as well as a general staff that is respected by field military commanders and is not afflicted by the failure of October 7.” The exchange of strikes that we have been engaged in with Hezbollah for half a year has led to tactical achievements, but the strategic achievement belongs to Hezbollah, which is the removal of the residents of northern Israel from their homes.