This afternoon, Friday, talks began in Paris on a prisoner exchange deal between Israel and the Hamas movement, in which the head of the CIA, the heads of Mossad and Shin Bet, the director of Egyptian intelligence, and the Qatari prime minister will participate. But the results of this meeting are not yet clear, in light of the intransigence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to continue the war on Gaza and his repeated phrase “until absolute victory.”

The Israeli delegation arrived in Paris this afternoon, and includes the head of the Mossad, David Barnea, the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, and Nitzan Alon.

The delegation is accompanied by Netanyahu's political advisor, Ofir Falk, "in order to closely monitor the delegation's performance," according to Channel 12. The delegation will also return to Israel tonight, according to Channel 13.

Meanwhile, Hamas leaders’ communication abroad with the movement’s head in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, remains difficult and sporadic.

The military analyst in the Haaretz newspaper, Amos Harel, pointed out today, “There is difficulty in agreeing on the deal without the permanent involvement of Sinwar, and this is also because the foreign leadership cannot appear less resolute than the domestic leadership, which bears the burdens of the fighting.”

Harel quoted a source who has known Netanyahu closely for decades, saying, “What is currently preoccupying Netanyahu without stopping is the assassination of Sinwar. He needs a clear achievement, almost a victory, that he can present to the public in Israel.”

According to the Ynet website, contrary to reports in the Israeli media, Sinwar is no longer described as “cut off from communications” and that the mediators, namely Egypt and Qatar, are talking with Hamas outside as well as with Hamas inside, in the Gaza Strip.

Channel 12 quoted an Israeli official as saying, “There is reason for optimism, but even if there is an initial general plan, the negotiations will be difficult and take time.”

The deal that will be discussed in Paris now is similar to what was agreed upon in the Paris talks, at the beginning of this month, which Netanyahu agreed to and then backed down.

The first stage requires a prisoner exchange, with the release of about 35 Israeli hostages in Gaza, including women, the elderly, the sick, the wounded, and perhaps Israeli female soldiers as well. It includes a ceasefire for 45 days and extends throughout the month of Ramadan.

In the second stage, the rest of the hostages, who are soldiers and men under the age of 50, and the bodies of the hostages are released.

According to Harel, the second phase would be associated with ending the war and the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip.

Harel pointed out that "Washington has lost its patience with Netanyahu's positions, statements, and deceptions. It also appears that the extent of international support for Israel is in doubt this time."

He added that Netanyahu has three options in the talks about the deal. The first possibility is that he will agree to the deal and "Israeli concessions", including the liberation of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners with high sentences, apparently in the first stage, and he is expected to face opposition within his government.

The second possibility is the continuation of the war during the month of Ramadan, which may include the invasion of Rafah. But Harel indicated that after that, Israel will return to the negotiating table and perhaps consider the “Biden Doctrine” about a new regional order.

He pointed out that this possibility "involves a bet that must take into account a severe deterioration in the regional situation due to the occupation of Rafah, which will primarily affect the civilian population in the Strip."

The third possibility is that Netanyahu will continue to “provoke” the Biden administration and evade a prisoner exchange deal. But Harel pointed out at the same time that sources in the Israeli government suggest not ruling out the possibility that “Netanyahu might decide to surprise and turn to the left. The United States and Saudi Arabia are making tremendous efforts to push a regional deal forward, and it allows presenting a picture of the success of the Biden administration’s foreign policy, before the elections.”