The announcement of the head of the Israeli opposition, Yair Lapid, granting the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a “safety net” for any exchange deal that might lead to the return of those kidnapped by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Gaza Strip, carries with it many meanings and implications regarding the future. The emergency government, the course of the fighting, and the day after the war.

Analyzes suggested that the current government coalition, which relies on far-right parties, is not able to complete any prisoner exchange deal in light of the position of Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir to topple the government if a “bad deal” for prisoner exchange and ceasefire is reached.

Estimates unanimously indicate that Netanyahu has become a hostage to the extortions of the extreme right represented by the “Jewish Greatness” party headed by Ben Gvir, the “Religious Zionism” coalition headed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and the settler movement in the Likud Party.

Crack and harmony

The "safety net" offer reinforced estimates that the current government coalition, which insists on continuing the war on Gaza, will not last long if any deal is completed.

Analysts' readings agree that Lapid's announcement came to return all the kidnapped Israelis and does not constitute a lifeline to save the Netanyahu government, which will disintegrate or will witness changes and new alliances that precede the scenario of early elections for the Knesset.

Political analyst, Akiva Eldar, believes that the opposition leader’s proposal to grant a “safety net” for any exchange deal reflects the state of consensus forming in Israel calling for the return of the kidnapped, and it is in harmony with the rising voices calling for their liberation, in order to deny the opportunity to the extreme right-wing rejectionist parties. For any deal and threatens to overthrow the government.

Eldar explained to Al Jazeera Net that Lapid strongly opposes Netanyahu remaining in the prime minister's chair, and holds him responsible for the failure and failure to prevent the events of last October 7 and to return the kidnapped people as part of military operations.

The political analyst believes that Lapid is well aware that the kidnappers file is an important bargaining chip on the Israeli street in the upcoming elections, so he wants to be a partner in any deal and use it in his election campaign.

He explained that all opposition parties, including the “There is a Future” party headed by Lapid, are convinced that any comprehensive exchange deal, regardless of the concessions and the price that the government will pay, will be the beginning of the rift of the current coalition, deepen the rift in Israeli society, strengthen the state of internal polarization, and will establish a new phase in the Israeli political scene.

Eldar does not rule out that the “safety net” offer was put forward at the behest of parties in the US administration, even if no indications have emerged about that. He confirms that Lapid’s proposal and his positions on the exchange and war deal are consistent with the administration of US President Joe Biden, who hinted that Netanyahu must make changes in his coalition government.

Accept and reject

In turn, the military affairs analyst in the newspaper "Haaretz", Amos Harel, believes that Netanyahu is approaching the point where he will have to decide whether to go ahead with the deal or reject it, and therefore Lapid's proposal came to provide a "safety net" for any deal.

He explained that any potential exchange deal would come with significant concessions by the Netanyahu government and would be viewed by large segments of the Israeli public as a victory for Hamas, and that its rejection by Netanyahu would mean the continuation of the war as his coalition partners, Ben Gvir and Smotrich, demanded.

It is now clear that the extreme right in the government, Harel says, "will create difficulties and obstacles to any deal, as Ben Gvir was quick to publicly declare against a deal that included concessions and threatened to dissolve the government, and Smotrich is not far from him in his position on the deal and the war."

The same military analyst said that the extreme right is concerned that a long ceasefire might mean the end of the war and thus keep Hamas in power, at least in the southern Gaza Strip. Netanyahu is also aware that the partial return of the kidnapped people, in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners, will be interpreted by large sectors of the Palestinian Authority. The Israeli public saw it as an admission of failure.

Antoine Shalhat, a researcher on Israeli affairs, believes that opposition leader Yair Lapid is supportive and supportive of the war, but he differs from Netanyahu with regard to the arrangement of goals. One of his priorities is the return of all those kidnapped by Hamas, even in exchange for Tel Aviv offering many concessions.

Shalhat told Al Jazeera Net that Lapid, who is consistent with the US administration's positions on the exchange deal and the method of fighting and war, strongly opposes Netanyahu remaining in power, and holds him responsible for the failure on October 7th and in achieving the goals of the war.

Collapse and disintegration

The same researcher explained that Lapid - like many Israelis - has become fully convinced that continuing the war and liberating the kidnapped are incompatible goals, and therefore his proposal to grant a “safety net” for an exchange deal came in response to the position of the extreme right that rejects the deal and threatens to dismantle the government.

Regarding the realism of this network, Shalhat says that its offer does not protect the government from collapse and disintegration, and is limited only to supporting the exchange deal and voting on it in the Knesset so that it can be implemented in light of the threat of Ben Gvir and the extreme right to dismantle the government if any deal is completed.

The researcher added that the background to Ben Gvir’s threats is also explained by the behavior of Netanyahu, who has become more hostage to the extreme right, as he opposes the withdrawal from Gaza and the liberation of thousands of Palestinian prisoners, delays the exchange deal, and repeats the goal of overthrowing Hamas’ rule, which reflects the conditions of this right to remain in government and continue the war until achieving its objectives.

Against the backdrop of the state of dependency that Netanyahu is living in, Shalhat says, “The positions of Israeli politicians, including Lapid, are in harmony with America’s positions, in opposition to the trend led by Netanyahu, which puts his personal interests above Israel’s higher interest and American interests in the Middle East.”

The researcher believes that Netanyahu is challenging the American position at this stage, but he has not yet reached the stage of breaking the tools of playing with Washington, which has many pressure cards to exercise if Netanyahu breaks these tools.

Source: Al Jazeera