An opinion poll showed that US President Joe Biden enjoys weak support in most of the major electoral districts in the state of Michigan, especially in light of the alienation of some young voters and Arab Americans in Michigan due to his position on the Israeli war on Gaza, while his expected rival, Donald Trump, is gaining support among Black voters, according to what the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, January 21, 2024.

The newspaper said that warning signs are looming in the US state of Michigan threatening the election of President Joe Biden to a new term, and added that Biden is likely to benefit from improved economic indicators related to inflation and wage growth, the availability of abortion rights in the state, and the expansion of mail-in voting and early voting.

However, the American newspaper says that the war waged by the Israeli occupation on the Gaza Strip and the American President’s position on the war and his support for Israel have alienated some young voters and Arab Americans in Michigan from him, and opinion polls show that Trump is gaining support among black voters.

A poll conducted by The Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV in early January showed Trump leading Biden by 47% to 39%. The poll shows that Joe Biden has weak support in most key Democratic constituencies.

When a question was asked about whether Biden deserves a new term, the poll found that the US president’s popularity is noticeably weak among black voters, voters between the ages of 18 and 29, and those with university degrees. The vast majority of independent voters in the poll believed that Biden did not deserve to be elected to a new term, while about a third of those surveyed saw that Trump deserved a second term.

While a poll conducted by CNN last December showed that Trump was ahead of Biden in the state by 50% to 40%. These differences are striking considering that in 2022, Michigan's Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, was re-elected by 54.5%, more than 10 points behind her Republican rival, and Democrats took control of the state legislature for the first time in four decades.

As Adrian Hemond, a Democratic strategist based in Lansing, said: “The level of anxiety is increasing, and that makes sense. The problem is not the policy, it is the person himself.”

The war on Gaza affects the president's fortunes

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden's support for Israel in the wake of the October attacks launched by Hamas aroused dissatisfaction with the Arab-American community in the state and at universities, which increases the possibility that a long-term war in Gaza will lead to a decline in the voting percentage and support for Biden among these voters.

Democratic leaders in Michigan say Biden has time to improve his image. “What I'm hearing from people dictates the need for immediate action and how dangerous this moment is in this country,” Whitmer said in an interview Sunday, January 21, with CBS' "Face the Nation."

Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) also said he is urging the White House and the campaign to do more in the state, saying the campaign is "not where it needs to be." Kildee said he spoke with Joe Biden a few weeks ago and encouraged him to visit Michigan frequently. "I told him, 'Come to Michigan. We need you there.' And he said he would," he said.

The war on Gaza caused a rift in the race for votes in the 15 electoral districts in Michigan, because the state includes large numbers of Arab and American Jewish voters in the state. More than half of the population of Dearborn, a city with a population of more than 100,000, is of Arab American or North African origin.

Even outside the state's pro-Palestinian community, Democratic Party activists point to a multi-ethnic coalition in support of the Palestinians in Gaza and fear that the continuation of the conflict will hurt Biden's chances.

“This is costing him a lot here in Michigan,” said David Heiner, a Democrat from New Boston, Michigan. “I hope he realizes that he is losing a huge demographic.”