Stratfor commented on the escalation in mutual retaliatory attacks on the Israeli-Lebanese border, saying that although a comprehensive invasion of Lebanon is unlikely, Israel is considering taking escalatory measures - in the coming weeks - that involve stronger action against the Hezbollah group inside Lebanon, which creates a risk The outbreak of a multi-front, long-term war for Israel.

The American intelligence site pointed to the threat of Israeli politicians with broad military action against Hezbollah, and to the latest disturbing statement from military officials, in which the head of the “Israeli Defense Forces”, General Herzi Halevy, on January 10, told the Israeli forces that the government will place them in the places necessary to secure northern borders.

It also pointed out that the Israeli Ministry of Health warned hospitals in northern Israel to prepare to receive large numbers of casualties, and to plan for the possibility of interruption of medical supplies in the event of a large-scale Hezbollah attack.

Stratfor added that these comments and warnings come after the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, which witnessed Israel targeting more of the party's prominent military leaders and assassinations of leaders of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in Lebanon, and Hezbollah responded by attempting to strike strategic Israeli military targets.

The site believes that the ongoing Israeli military strategy is to use directed escalation to pressure Hezbollah to withdraw from the border.

If the current military strategy fails to establish a viable buffer zone, Israel will likely escalate its larger attacks on Hezbollah's military infrastructure to increase pressure on it, including the use of sustained ground raids and deeper strikes outside the southern border area.

If these broader attacks fail, Israel will use battalion-level ground incursions into southern Lebanon to “clear and control the territory of militants” and signal that Israel may escalate to a full-scale invasion.

The American website added that Israel has the option of repeating a comprehensive invasion once the combat operations in Gaza end, although doing so would likely lead to direct Iranian retaliation against Israel itself, making this unlikely.

It concluded that Israel would likely consider this option only if it received full diplomatic support from the United States, completed its main military objectives in Gaza, had internal political unity and support for the operation, and if Hezbollah escalated attacks to a level that included things like launching strikes on Israeli cities. , making its threat impossible to ignore.

Source: Stratfor +Aljazeera