“It quickly became clear that the possibility of rescuing them by force was very small, given Hamas’ extreme preparations to deal with any rescue attempt. In many cases at least, the ground incursion did not improve the situation of the kidnapped, but rather killed them.”

Today, Wednesday, security analysts refuted the claim of Israeli officials that increasing military pressure through ground maneuvers on the Gaza Strip would lead to the release of the hostages, but rather it led to the killing of some of them, following the refusal of the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to reach a prisoner exchange deal. With Hamas.

An Israeli official with knowledge of the war plans and the hostage issue described “the State of Israel, its security apparatus, the Israeli army, the Mossad, the Shin Bet, the Ministry of Security and those around the prime minister,” as being like “a casino patron, or just a person overwhelmed with his self-confidence, who entered the gambling structure and went off.” He puts money in the slot machine,” according to what was quoted by Ronen Bergman, intelligence analyst at Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

The same official added, "The State of Israel, with its soldiers and intelligence agencies, stands before the machine of fortune, even though it loses time after time and, at best, wins a small amount of money, but in the end it is in a state of enormous loss, and continues to carry out exactly the same thing, and hopes and believes that it will come." The moment for luck to turn around, and the big profit comes, but by insisting on victory, she allows life to pass in front of her, and she does not notice that she loses all the money, and she does not realize that the casino is always the winner in the end.”

Bergman pointed out that Israel “succeeded in liberating one kidnapped woman over the course of 100 days, and freed the rest of the eighty kidnapped persons with a deal that the Qatari mediators said was on the table before the start of the ground maneuver. And throughout the 100 days, the entire establishment, political and security, claimed that the primary goal of the military operation was to dismantle Hamas’ capabilities.” He is the one who will pay and allow the second goal to be achieved, the liberation of the kidnapped people.”

He added, "Any official is asked how it happens that whenever military pressure intensifies, and the Israeli army's bulldozers dig their claws, as the Minister of Defense explained, a short distance from Sinwar, the latter tightens his conditions" for a deal.

Bergman stated that the Israeli army and intelligence services have been talking in whispers, for 100 days, about the possibility that what everyone feared all the time had happened many times, and that kidnapped persons were killed (by Israeli bombing) or at the hands of Hamas in circumstances directly related to that ground maneuver that was supposed to save them. .

He added that regardless of the circumstances of the killing of hostages, “they are now whispering, for the first time, about the necessity of rethinking the whole issue, and that perhaps there is no real possibility of a major victory in this machine, and that continuing is like banging one’s head against the wall, but the talk is not about "Money, but about people, and they may pay with their lives."

He continued, "It quickly became clear that the possibility of rescuing them by force was very small, following Hamas' extreme preparations to deal with any rescue attempt."

Bergman pointed out that "the issue of the kidnapped persons was not initially at the top of the leadership's list of preferences. Nor was it written as a war goal. Only on October 16, after intense public pressure and after the families of the kidnapped had organized themselves, did the war cabinet secretly add the issue of the kidnapped as a second target of the war.”

Bergman repeated the statements of other analysts, saying, “The two goals of the war cannot be achieved together, as they contradict each other. There was no one in the security apparatus to stop this race and say that this will not succeed. In many cases at least, the ground incursion did not improve the situation of the kidnapped, but rather killed them.” .

He pointed out that "there are those who claim that the Israeli army has high-quality intelligence information regarding the death of quite a few kidnapped people, some of them by Israeli army fire on the first day of the war, within the framework of the Hannibal procedure that was officially used," which means that the army must kill its soldiers who were captured, and this system was used, on October 7, against Israeli citizens, not soldiers.

Bergman said, “The problem is that if the war does not stop, and (Security Minister Yoav) Gallant continues to lead the military operation that includes the occupation of at least parts of the Gaza Strip, no one can guarantee that it will end with the achievement of the goals. In practice, the Israeli army says that this "The operation will continue for a year or two, without ever explaining what will happen to the kidnapped during this period. The two goals are contradictory."

For his part, the military analyst in the newspaper "Haaretz", Amos Harel, repeated that "Netanyahu repeats the empty refrain that 'We will fight until victory,' but for him this stems mainly from considerations of his political survival. Netanyahu knows that despite the growing public support for a deal that includes difficult concessions. Such a step will disintegrate his government from within, because his far-right partners will withdraw from it.”

He added, "Not only are the two goals of the war colliding with each other at this stage, but they are not specific to their timetable," and reported that after the Hamas attack on October 7, "the Israeli army planned a war in four stages."

This week, Galant announced that the Israeli army has moved into a third phase of the war, which includes reducing its forces in the Gaza Strip. According to Harel, “the army is talking about many more months of fighting in a more reduced manner, before the situation in the Gaza Strip stabilizes and the military threat from Hamas is removed, following the dismantling of a large part of its systems.”

He pointed out, "This timetable does not match the real, increasing danger to the lives of the kidnapped. The army has so far announced that more than 20 kidnapped people died in captivity or were killed on October 7 and their bodies were kidnapped. The real number may be higher. The Israeli army's operations do not lead to the liberation of "Kidnapped, now. Their families fear that these operations will unintentionally lead to their death."

Harel continued, “The war cabinet is torn apart over this issue. Opposite to Netanyahu, Gallant, and the Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, who oppose a sustained ceasefire and the comprehensive liberation of thousands of Palestinian prisoners, there are the ministers of the National Union, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, as well as the observer member from the Shas party, Aryeh Deri, and they appear to be seeking a deal, so as to make it possible to stop the fighting. Their claim relates to the state’s moral debt towards the kidnapped people, the majority of whom are civilians, who were abandoned to face their fate in the wake of a massive security and strategic failure.”

He pointed out that there is "tremendous frustration at the high levels of the Israeli army and Shin Bet. The fear is that the prime minister's political considerations lead to the erosion of the achievements that have been accumulated so far."

Yesterday, Channel 13 reported that the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, Herzi Halevy, warned the political echelon that refusing to hold deliberations about the “next day” after the war would push the Israeli army to return to areas where it had ended the fighting, especially in the northern Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Hamas has returned to showing signs of its rule there.”