The Wall Street Journal published a report prepared by Rory Jones in which he said that, after 100 days, the war in Gaza has turned into an intractable conflict that threatens to spread beyond Gaza and obstruct global trade. The war moved from a “brutal” attack by “Hamas” to fierce Israeli revenge with no prospect of an end.

This war, which is considered the most important geopolitical event of the current century, killed more than 23,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children, and completely or partially destroyed 70% of Gaza’s 439,000 homes.

Jones added that the United States was quick to come to Israel's aid in the war in a way that put Joe Biden's foreign policy under scrutiny. The dispute and Biden's supportive stance have resonated deeply in US domestic politics and led to demonstrations on college campuses, which have added fuel to the culture war at a time when the president faces a contentious re-election campaign.

Sanam Wakil: “Although the region is humming” with the American song, “this idea of marginalizing the Palestinian issue is a mirage.”

The war forced the United States to focus on the Middle East, after years of redirecting diplomacy and military resources to confront the rise of China, and diverted US attention from providing support to Ukraine.

The conflict mixed the cards and priorities of American policy. Before the attacks, Washington was focusing its efforts in the region on normalization, especially between Saudi Arabia and Israel, with the aim of restructuring security alliances in the region and containing Iran. All this has stopped, and it is not known when it will resume again.

The question now revolves around settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which Israel and the international community have ignored, but which has become at the center of international diplomacy, even though the path to a two-state solution has become more difficult and thorny than before.

Sanam Wakil, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Program, says: “Although the region is humming” with the American song, “this idea of marginalizing the Palestinian issue is a mirage.”

The newspaper says that when Israel decides to end the war, this will have an impact on several fronts, including its security, and in the long term.

Away from the battlefield in Gaza, the United States is working to contain Iran, which supports Hamas and its allies, including the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. The fragile truce that was the center of the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement last year has become at risk.

The raids launched by the United States and its allies against the Houthis in Yemen in response to attacks against shipping in the Red Sea are an expensive journey, and have shaken the prices of goods linked to their flow through the sea.

The newspaper quoted Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations: “When the war spreads outside Gaza and outside Israel to the region, which is what is happening now... then global repercussions occur.”

The newspaper comments that the raids increased the level of involvement of the United States, which deployed battleships in the region, in the first days of the Gaza war, to deter “Hezbollah” from targeting Israel. The United States provided Israel with massive bunker-busting bombs, along with tens of thousands of weapons and artillery shells, helping it overthrow Hamas in Gaza. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has made four tours in the region since October 7 to prevent the spread of war there.

The conflict led to demonstrations in the West in support of both parties, in support of the Palestinians and denouncing Israel, and others against the spread of anti-Semitism. The tension led to the resignation of the presidents of Harvard and Pennsylvania universities. On Thursday, South Africa filed a case against Israel before the International Court of Justice in The Hague, accusing it of committing genocide.

Israel rejected the accusations, accusing South Africa of supporting Hamas, which it says calls for its extermination.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defined the war's goals as destroying Hamas and liberating the hostages it had taken. However, the war turned into a bloody operation that revealed the limitations of Israel's military capabilities and Hamas' advanced ground defenses. Israel killed thousands of Hamas fighters and weakened its military capabilities, but it did not achieve any of the goals it set at the beginning of the war. The Israeli army is still searching to destroy the tunnels and kill Hamas leaders, such as Yahya Sinwar.

Tens of thousands in the north are still far from their homes, which they were evacuated from due to clashes with Hezbollah. Despite Israel’s talk, in the fourth month, of a shift in the course of the war to a targeted, less intense phase, it “is still continuing,” says Uzi Arad, the Israeli National Security Advisor between 2009 and 2011, adding that “there are existing risks of escalation.” .

The efforts revealed the difficulty of confronting Iran, which supported Hamas and trained its fighters before the October attack.

Israel deployed thousands of soldiers in the north to confront Hezbollah. Ghassan Al-Khatib, a lecturer at Birzeit University in the West Bank, says: “It is clear that what happened shook the regional balance of power against Israel and the United States,” and “After three months, Israel was unable to defeat one of Iran’s agents.”

Analysts say that Israel may kill Hamas leaders and thousands of its fighters, but rescuing the hostages will be difficult. Israel faces difficulty in achieving its military goals in the south, after it displaced most of the residents of northern and central Gaza.

Currently, Hamas leaders are divided over what the movement can achieve from the war. They believe that they achieved a victory with the October 7 attacks, and caused a security and military blow to Israel, by securing their leadership after the Israeli invasion. The important question is whether Hamas is able to use its remaining hostages to free Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, which is Sinwar’s goal, or whether it remains in power inside Gaza and an influential force in Palestinian politics.

Even if Israel crushes Hamas, it is not clear who will manage Gaza, or finance the reconstruction of the devastation it will leave behind.

Influential Arab countries, such as Egypt, believe that Hamas must play a role, and the war has increased its position and popularity vis-à-vis the National Authority.

Achieving any of these goals will be difficult, after Arab countries’ relations with the United States became strained, given the latter’s unconditional support for Israel.

 It also undermines America's support in the Global South, as its countries have refused to support American efforts in Ukraine when it continues to support the occupation of the Palestinians. Lovatt says: “From what Beijing and Moscow see, watching the United States waste its resources on supporting Israel is not a bad thing,” and “in the end, China and Russia prevail.”

Source: Sama News