The Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7 was an impressive tactical success for Hamas, as described by the American magazine The Foreign Policy, but with Israel’s military operation in Gaza exceeding two months, and after the brutal destruction it inflicted, who was able to achieve its goals, Hamas or Israel, and will Hamas’ successes continue? In the end, who will win?

Now the Israeli occupation forces are trying to increase their control over Gaza, leaving a large part of it in ruins, and about 19,000 Palestinians dead. The American magazine wonders: What can Hamas say it has achieved?

The magazine says, "It is useful to think about what Hamas has accomplished, and where it has failed? Through a study from three different dimensions: Hamas' struggle against Israel, the internal Palestinian arena, and the movement's international position."

Hamas' successes against Israel as seen by the American magazine

The Hamas attack brought pain to Israel and shattered its sense of security – both goals of Hamas. The attack exposed the Israeli government's long-standing belief that Hamas lacks the intent and capabilities necessary to launch a large-scale attack on Israeli territory. This assumption, despite evidence to the contrary, left Israel unprepared for Hamas' devastating invasion. The resulting intelligence failure, and the scale of the attack, which was said to have been more successful than even Hamas planners expected, will leave deep psychological scars on Israeli citizens, and force Israel to reevaluate its approach to security.

From the settlements to Al-Aqsa... Israel was slowly killing the Palestinian cause

Until October 7, Israelis could largely ignore Hamas and the Palestinians in general, except for sporadic rockets fired at Israel from Gaza, most of which were handled by Israeli missile defenses. When occasional crises erupted, as they did every few years, the two sides eventually agreed to resort to some version of the status quo ante. But from Hamas's perspective, this situation was slowly stifling the Palestinian cause, with Israel winning on the ground. As year after year passed, settlements were expanding in the West Bank, while Gaza was at best suffering from stagnation, with diminishing hope for its people, (and violations against Al-Aqsa Mosque reached an unprecedented level, threatening to divide it or even seize it, or even destroy it).

But now Israelis must look at the unending conflict with the Palestinians rather than ignore it.

Israel's response could strengthen the Palestinian movement

Israel's response could also strengthen Hamas. Hamas has succeeded in bringing the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of international news, and the Israeli war on Gaza - with the heavy costs incurred by civilians in Gaza - will work to keep Hamas there, according to the American magazine.

The Israeli ground attack serves Hamas' narrative of Israeli aggression, isolates Israel from the Arab countries with which it was looking to normalize, and exacerbates regional tensions. In the long term, the conflict will foster a new generation of Gazans with grievances against Israel, which could bolster support for Hamas in the future.

Hamas returned to leading the Palestinian resistance after it almost turned into Israel's special policeman

Hamas has regained what can be said to be its credentials as a resistance movement among the Palestinian people. After Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, it found itself facing the daily demands of the Gaza administration. This often required avoiding conflict with Israel to ensure that the already significant economic pressures on Gaza were not increased and that Israel did not launch devastating military strikes.

This in turn prompted Hamas to limit its attacks, and at times to stay away from the fighting while Israel bombed the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement. As a result, Hamas found itself in the position of an Israeli police officer rather than its sworn enemy, which angered its military wing and led to criticism from what the magazine describes as extremist circles, that the movement was slowly abandoning the armed struggle.

Hamas successes

Effective Hamas attacks increased support for the resistance in general and restored the credentials of Hamas specifically. Although robust polling for the post-October period is not yet available, limited opinion polls of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as anecdotal reports covering October 7, indicate strong support for Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, and indicate the Israeli response in both Gaza and the West Bank angered many Palestinians who are not Hamas supporters. In addition, the West Bank welcomed Palestinian prisoners released by Israel in a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas as heroes – a clear victory for Hamas, which could argue that its attacks, not the negotiations conducted by the rival Palestinian Authority; what led to the release of prisoners.

All of this comes at the expense of the Palestinian Authority, which by not fighting and even suppressing anti-Israel demonstrations has appeared cowardly compared to Hamas. In addition, the Israeli response provoked by Hamas also distorts the credibility of those who claim that Israel can be a partner for peace.

The Al-Aqsa flood brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of the world’s concerns

For many years, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict seemed to be at the back of the world's attention. The United States has focused on containing China and the Russia-Ukraine war, while Arab governments have been content to largely ignore the issue despite some occasional rhetoric. Now the Palestinian issue has become at the forefront and at the heart of the global agenda.

Israel's response strengthens its voice as an occupying power that brutally oppresses Palestinians, and the continued conflict and subsequent humanitarian crisis in Gaza undermine Israel's image in the region and strengthen support for those who oppose it.

Although Iran denies its direct involvement in the attack, the success of the operation may encourage Tehran to enhance its investment in the “Axis of Resistance,” a regional network of armed groups that aims to destabilize Israel and its allies.

In addition, the Israeli war on Gaza temporarily halted US-backed normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If Riyadh recognizes Israel, it will lay the foundations for other Arab countries to do the same. This would leave Hamas increasingly isolated and with few partners to defend the Palestinian cause. But after the attack, Saudi leaders distanced themselves from Israel and issued statements supporting the Palestinians. These measures were largely aimed at placating the country's overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian population, and this indicates that Riyadh's wariness of normalization, which existed before the crisis, is now much higher.

Beyond the Middle East, the war generated a great deal of support for the Palestinian cause. Pro-Palestinian demonstrations took place across Europe. With few exceptions, the Global South sees the war as that of a powerful state attacking a defenseless population and deplores what many see as the hypocrisy of the West, which defends Ukraine while ignoring the rights of Palestinians.

Even in the United States, it has become a topic of discussion

Hamas can declare some victories in the United States. Although most Republicans and US President Joe Biden embrace Israel, the broader Democratic Party is divided.

Young Democrats in particular are critical of Israel. Although none of them support Hamas, some Democratic lawmakers have called for a ceasefire, restrictions on US military aid, and other steps inconsistent with Israeli policies.

It is widely believed that a large segment of American youth has become supportive of the Palestinian cause.

Data from a new study conducted on 2,035 people indicated that the longer the fighting in Gaza lasted, the more public opinion among American youth moved in favor of Hamas and the Palestinians.

The study, published by Harris Insights and Analytics and the Center for American Policy Studies at Harvard University, showed surprising results, namely that two-thirds of young Americans (67%) between the ages of 18 and 24 believe that Jews are an oppressor class (that oppresses Palestinians) and that they (the Jews) should be treated as such, according to the “Euroneur” website in Arabic.

According to the opinion poll, 51% of this age group in the United States believe that the just solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is “the end of Israel and the handing over of the country to Hamas and the Palestinians.”

The same percentage also supported Hamas in the current war in the Gaza Strip.

Professor Yossi Shin of Tel Aviv University and Georgetown University considered that, “In all American universities, there has been for decades a very strong activity of pro-Palestinian and leftist organizations that confirm that Israel is an occupying state that commits crimes against the Palestinians,” pointing out that “these numbers are disturbing”, as he put it.

“For young Americans, it has become cool to be against the brutal Israeli occupier,” Sheen noted.

One of the statistics in the new poll showed that 60% of young people believe that the killing of 1,200 Israelis and the kidnapping of 250 others on October 7 during Operation Al-Aqsa Flood can be justified in light of the injustice befalling the Palestinians.

The success tax paid by Hamas is similar to that paid by resistance movements throughout history

Whatever gains Hamas has achieved, they come at a high cost, according to a report by the American magazine The Foreign Policy.

The report said that Hamas's leadership and military apparatus are likely to deteriorate due to the Israeli war. Israel claims to have killed dozens of leaders and more than 7,000 Hamas fighters. Moreover, Israel will likely continue its assassination campaign against Hamas leaders for years or even decades to come.

But there are great doubts about the accuracy of the numbers announced by Israel, even by Western analysts, and it has not provided evidence for its claims.

Of course, ordinary people in Gaza will pay the highest price. Many of the dead, who have so far reached about 20,000, are children, and the devastation inflicted on the Gaza Strip and the displacement of a large portion of its population will create a permanent crisis even if the shooting stops soon. Gazans will need to rebuild the Strip, with international assistance that will be limited, if any.

However, despite the magnitude of the losses that are unprecedented in the history of the Palestinian people, it must be noted that most of the national liberation movements always achieved their greatest successes after carrying out a military escalation followed by large human losses inflicted mainly on civilians, as happened to the Vietnamese with the Americans (especially after the Tet Offensive), where the human losses of the Vietnamese reached about 3 million according to some estimates, and the same thing was repeated with the Algerian people’s revolution against France, which gave the country the title of the country of a million and a half martyrs.

What has Israel achieved as the war enters its third month? The goal of dismantling Hamas seems unattainable

On the other hand, the magazine did not address the outcome of Israel’s gains and losses from the war, and whether it has achieved its goals or not so far.

But it can be noted that since the launch of the Israeli military operation in response to the Al-Aqsa flood, Israel has set two goals: the first is the elimination of Hamas, and the second is the recovery of its prisoners.

As the war on Gaza enters its third month, Israel seems far from the goal of dismantling Hamas. Here it is, more than two months after the ground invasion, revealing the first huge tunnel from the long network of tunnels that is believed to be 500 km long, a tunnel that appears to be no longer in use, and the discovery did not include displaying any prisoners or bodies, as if it was more propaganda for Hamas than an attack on it.

The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades and other resistance groups continue to target Israeli soldiers and armored vehicles at a rate exceeding the beginning of the war, and Israel’s losses are worsening amid indications that the occupation army is not fully announcing them, as Israeli reports have shown.

Hamas continues to show live videos, showing realistic targeting of occupation soldiers and vehicles, unlike Israeli army videos, which only show Israeli soldiers shooting without showing counter targets.

Israel did not arrest any senior Hamas leader, such as Yahya Al-Sinwar, whose assassination it made a central goal, or Muhammad Al-Deif, commander of the Al-Qassam Brigades, nor did it announce the assassination of a number of prominent leaders, knowing that historically senior Hamas leaders were subjected to widespread assassination campaigns, such as the movement’s founder, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and prominent leaders such as Abdel Aziz Al-Rantisi, Salah Shehadeh, and Yahya Ayyash, and the movement was not affected, but rather grew stronger.

Although Hamas forces are fighting in a decentralized manner, there are no signs of a crisis in the leadership structure, and they continue to bombard Israel with missiles, even if at a lesser rate.

On the other hand, life in Israel is almost paralyzed; the settlers of the surrounding areas near Gaza Strip refuse to return to their homes, for fear of Hamas attacks, and the settlers of the north left their homes for fear of Hezbollah attacks, while most of the residents of southern Lebanon did not leave their homes.

Most international airlines boycotted Israeli airports, and the Israel Airports Authority even furloughed 600 workers. It reduced its expenses by 75% regarding another thousand workers.

In addition, the Israeli tourism sector is paralyzed, while the call-up of about 360,000 reserve soldiers is putting pressure on the country’s economy, especially the technology companies sector, which depends on young people, and agriculture is suffering as a result of stopping the flow of Palestinian labor and the flight of Asian workers.

The port of Eilat has become almost halted after the Houthis targeted ships heading to Israel, and insurance prices for Israel have risen due to the attacks. It is believed that shipping prices in the entire region are likely to rise with the rise in insurance prices and many shipping lines diverting their ships away from the Red Sea.

It did not release a single prisoner, but killed dozens

Regarding the goal of releasing Israeli prisoners held by the Palestinian resistance, all the prisoners who were released were done through a deal with Hamas.

While Israel was not able to liberate even one of the prisoners, it killed dozens of them, the last of whom were the three who were killed in an occupation army shooting, which sparked an internal crisis that is likely to worsen and has become a factor of division within Israeli society, and a factor of mounting pressure on the government to stop the war.

Netanyahu and his extremist allies are the biggest losers, and Gantz is the biggest winner

Netanyahu and his extremist allies are also considered the biggest losers from the Al-Aqsa flood, as his popularity has fallen to rock bottom, and his rival, Benny Gantz, former Defense Minister and member of the War Council, is expected to win any election over him by a large margin, and his party may outperform the mighty Likud.

A poll, broadcast by Channel 12, showed that the parties in Netanyahu’s coalition will win only 44 seats in the Knesset, compared to the 64 seats they won in the November 2022 elections, while the supposed future coalition bloc consisting of the parties that were defeated in 2022 will win 71 seats. In the elections for the 120-member Knesset, which means the possibility of forming a government without the participation of Likud, the party that has dominated Israeli politics for decades.

The biggest loser is the Religious Zionism Party, led by extremist Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who is expected, according to the poll, to fail in obtaining any seats in the Israeli Knesset.

This is a great gain for the Palestinian cause. Because weakening Smotrich and his partner, the extremist National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, would ease settlements  plans and seizing Al-Aqsa mosque that they are leading.

Netanyahu's dreams of ruling Gaza and undermining the two-state solution are met with international opposition

On the other hand, the subsidiary goals that Netanyahu pledged to implement after the war, including direct Israeli rule of Gaza and the elimination of the two-state solution, were met with significant Western opposition, especially American opposition. On the contrary, calls escalated in the West, especially by Spain and Belgium, to hold an international peace conference. Rather, Belgium announced its intention to prevent extremist settlers from entering its territory, which means besieging Netanyahu's strongest allies, at a time when many Israelis have begun to insinuate that these extremists are responsible for the crisis.

His talk about the situation in Gaza after Hamas seems like a fantasy in light of the continuing resistance and the clarity of the difficulty of achieving the goal of dismantling Hamas. On the other hand, the President of the Palestinian Authority asked the Fatah leader Azzam Al-Ahmad to communicate with the Hamas movement, indicating the need for all factions to be within the framework of Palestinian Liberation Organization. 

Source: Arabic Post