Netanyahu is the “losing state” in the Biden battle!

The revealing truth about the Biden administration's relationship with the Netanyahu government is that it "uses the most flexible degrees of persuasion, and tries with all force to avoid doing or saying anything that Israel or AIPAC could consider as a type of political pressure."

Information confirms that the visit of Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor who was sent in a hurry by Biden to avoid any personal or political dispute between Biden and Netanyahu, ended with Washington acquiescing to the Israeli vision in the form and manner of Tel Aviv’s management of the battle in Gaza, and accepting the timetable set by the presidency. Israeli staff to end operations.

It was also learned that any political vision for the project “the day after” the fall of Hamas in Gaza is “vague and not agreed upon,” and that Sullivan heard several categorical no’s in Tel Aviv:

1- There is no immediate ceasefire now.

2- There is no explicit pledge not to harm civilians in northern or southern Gaza.

3- There is no desire or intention on the part of the Netanyahu administration to begin any secret or public dialogue with the Palestinian Authority led by President Mahmoud Abbas, and this is explained by the Israeli army’s continued conduct of specific operations in the cities of the West Bank, with the army and security continuing to pledge full support for “the settlers’ right to defend themselves and their property.” 

4- The Netanyahu government’s unwillingness now and its complete avoidance of committing to any specific political vision to find a negotiating path that leads in any way to giving any independent authority to the Palestinians to manage their affairs in Gaza or the West Bank.

As for the phrase “two-state solution,” it is considered one of the phrases that is prohibited from being used with any pillar of the current ruling coalition in Israel.

The revealing truth about the Biden administration’s relationship with the Netanyahu government is that it uses the most flexible levels of persuasion, and tries with all force to avoid doing or saying anything that Israel or AIPAC could consider as a type of political pressure.

Why did Sullivan come?

What ideas did Jake Sullivan carry in his backpack? Why did he come in the first place?

Sullivan's political mind comes from the famous Yale University School, influenced by the centrist thought of the Democratic Party.

Since studying law, the man possesses a political-legal vision that has qualified him in the difficult art of negotiation on thorny issues that require “strategic patience.”

This has appeared since the man worked as an advisor in the Biden administration, and a member of the initial negotiating stages of the first nuclear agreement with Iran during the Obama administration.

The man gained Obama's trust and even served as Assistant to the President and National Security Advisor to Vice President Joe Biden at the time. Before that, he served as Director of Policy Planning at the State Department, and the man has held his position since the first day of the Biden administration.

Sullivan came to the region after Secretary of State Anthony Blinken complained to President Biden that he, the minister, had reached a difficult point in the stubborn dialogue with the Netanyahu government, and that at the same time he heard harsh words from the Arab-Islamic ministerial delegation.

Blinken added that the interests of the United States with its allies in the region are going through a very critical stage due to the extreme frustration that these allies are suffering due to unconditional support for Israel, while Washington neglects to exert any pressure to stop brutal military operations against civilians.

This vision was supported by several reports from Washington's ambassadors in several capitals, and reports from the Middle East departments of US intelligence warning of popular anger in the Arab and Islamic worlds, and the extent of the political embarrassment that this caused to many of the region's rulers who face popular pressure to take harsh decisions against relations with Israel and show... Official anger at American support for Israel.

The assessment of the American position, based on all of the above, amounted to the necessity of trying to soften the American position and avoid making the disagreement with Israeli behavior appear as a conflict that might lead to confrontation.

Blinken's advice to his boss was that there are two behaviors that should be avoided at the same time:

First: The difference in visions between Washington and Tel Aviv has emerged as a conflict that requires American pressure on Israel, which is fighting to defend the interests and security of the Hebrew state. Therefore, any current or future American behavior should not be interpreted as an abandonment of unconditional support. For Israel.

Second: It is necessary to find a formula that reduces the anger and frustration that could affect the historical relations of the countries of the region, officially or popularly.

Hence, the Biden administration must appear to be seeking to save the situation through a ceasefire, exchange of hostages, provision of humanitarian aid, and finding an acceptable political and security path for the Palestinian file.

Biden was afraid that he would lose the Jewish vote if he failed to unconditionally support Israel, and it seems that the man will pay the price for this support with his presidency and Washington’s political reputation.

Biden is worried about the elections

Perhaps the most dangerous of the warnings given to Biden was the emphasis on a double statement that says, “Continuing unconditional support, and stopping or reducing it to satisfy allies, will in both cases have negative effects on the president’s electoral battle.”

These perceptions stated that “the president’s next speech to the Senate and the House of Representatives (the union speech) at the beginning of next year must contain a success for the American role in supporting the Israeli people and their efforts to save the deteriorating situation in Gaza.”

Hence, it was important for the president, who is facing difficulties in 6 major states, to obtain basic support in Michigan, where the volume of the Arab and Islamic voice plays an essential role.

Indications indicate that the Arab-Islamic voice in Michigan will not naturally be with the Biden administration.

Michigan is known as traditionally deeply Democratic because of the strength of its labor unions, which defend labor interests in this influential industrial region.

Therefore, Jake Sullivan was assigned to travel urgently to perform a difficult mission that seeks to:

1- Agreeing on an imminent timetable, not later than next January, for a ceasefire.

2- Responding to the complaint of the Arab-Islamic demand by increasing the volume and flow of humanitarian aid, fuel and medicines to Gaza.

3- Focus Israeli firepower on Hamas forces and their leadership and stay away as much as possible from any civilian targets, whether intentionally or by random fire.

4- Not to fire again on civilians who were displaced more than 3 times from north to south and have now settled in the city of Rafah.

5- Trying to reach an initial map with the Israelis for a political dialogue about the shape of the future of the Palestinians’ relationship with Israel.

Sullivan is required to save the government of Israel from itself, and to reorganize the tactics of the Israeli Defense Forces, to speed up the resolution of matters so that presidential candidate Joe Biden does not pay the price for them.

What is needed is to save Netanyahu

The US State Department suggested to Sullivan the continuation of attempts to reach a new truce that would alleviate the blow of popular and official reactions in the world until the picture almost became very damaging after Washington’s veto in the Security Council and international support in the recent General Assembly vote until Washington and Tel Aviv seemed alone in a negative way.

In short, Sullivan is required to save the government of Israel from itself, and to reorganize the tactics of the Israeli Defense Forces, to speed up the resolution of matters so that presidential candidate Joe Biden does not pay the price for them.

Hence the timid American suggestion that Netanyahu should reconstitute his government because the current hard-line coalition makes it difficult for any calm that could lead to a settlement.

The American assessment has reached that if this coalition continues, Israel’s loss of political goals is certain, and that the possibilities of expanding the scope of the war, whether internally by the residents of the West Bank and the residents of the Green Line or externally through the Houthis, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the party, is something that Washington is striving to achieve with all force. She avoids him, especially as she suffers from the failure of the Ukrainian forces to achieve any progress against the Russian army.

In short, the Biden administration cannot afford to pay the bill for two failures at the same time, one in Ukraine and the other in Gaza!

What did Sullivan succeed in and what did he fail in his visit?

1- Sullivan succeeded in convincing the Council of Ministers to increase the volume of humanitarian aid through the Rafah crossing, and the first new batch was 16 trailers of Saudi aid that came through the previous batch of aid via the air and sea bridge.

2- The man succeeded in convincing the Chief of Staff to carry out specific operations against Hamas instead of falling into the ambush of urban warfare that led to a major loss 4 days ago.

3- The man failed to stop the following:

A- Supporting the arming of settlers.

B- Changing the ruling coalition.

C- Commitment to an imminent timetable for a ceasefire.

The evil formula of Compromise was to replace ground operations as soon as possible with a type of specific liquidation and assassination operations against the Hamas leadership, similar to what the Israeli army is carrying out in some cities in the West Bank.

So, there are no indications of an immediate settlement or cessation, but rather the continuation of the previous in a different form.

So, an American green light for the continuation of the above, but with less apparent brutality.

The frightening thing is that Netanyahu is dealing with Biden as if the crisis is Biden's crisis and not a crisis of his government and his political future.

Biden was afraid that he would lose the Jewish vote if he failed to unconditionally support Israel, and it seems that the man will pay the price for this support with his presidency and Washington’s political reputation.