A poll conducted by the University of Maryland in cooperation with Ipsos showed that American popular support for Israel rose significantly in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, but declined and eroded significantly four weeks after this attack as a result of anger over the Israeli attacks on Gaza Strip and thousands of civilian casualties.

The poll, which was published on Wednesday evening, said that the erosion of support for Israel was noticeable among young Democrats, as they began to view President Joe Biden as “very pro-Israel” by twice the rate compared to the poll conducted last October.

A number of young Democrats said they were less likely to vote for Biden in the upcoming presidential elections because of his stance in support of Israel. The poll also showed that broad sectors of American voters' interest in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has doubled since October, and has increased significantly among circles that support the need for the United States to support the Palestinians.

In a question about the position of Americans regarding their preference for the United States to support Israel or the Palestinians, the results of previous polls indicated that those who wanted the United States to stand with the Palestinians have remained relatively stable since June, while those who wanted the United States to lean toward Israel. They increased not only among Republicans, but also among Democrats, going from 13.7% in June to 30.9% in October; It also rose among independents from 20.8% in June to 37.9% in October.

In the latest poll, the number of participants who want the United States to stand with Israel decreased from both the Republican and Democratic parties. This was accompanied by a slight increase in the number of those who wanted the United States to lean toward the Palestinians.

The poll indicated that support for Israel decreased among Democrats from 30.9% in the third week of October to 20.5% in early November, while support for the Palestinians rose from 9.2% to 12.9%.

During the same two-week period, the gap between Republicans who want the United States to lean toward Israel and those who want the United States to lean toward the Palestinians narrowed from 70.7% to 60.8%; The percentage also decreased from 32.2% to 27.7% among independents. For all participants overall, the gap decreased from 36.8% to 29.1%. At the same time, there was a rise across the board in the percentage of respondents who want the United States not to take sides, to 53.5% overall, including 65.5% of Democrats, 31.6% of Republicans, and 57.5% of Independents.

Young people are more supportive of the Palestinians

Shibli Telhami, a professor at the University of Maryland, says that young people (under 35) across partisan divides were less inclined to want the United States to side with Israel compared to October, but the change among young Democrats was particularly striking. . In the October poll, we found no change in the attitudes of young Democrats two weeks after the Hamas attacks, and those who wanted the United States to stand with them were about equal. 

In the latest opinion poll, there is a tangible change in favor of the Palestinians. The percentage of those who want the United States to stand by the Palestinians increased from 16.2% in October to 23.2% in November, while the percentage of those who want to stand by Israel increased from 14.7% to 15.9% (within the margin of error). Most young Democrats wanted the United States not to take sides, 59.8%, compared to 64.7% in October.

Biden and his position on Israel

Professor Telhami adds, “There was a noticeable increase in the number of Democrats who said that Biden is ‘very pro-Israel,’ rising from 24.4% in October to 34.4% in November, while Democrats who said that Biden is ‘very pro-Palestinian’ remained consistent in their position.” .

The change among young Democrats has been astonishing. The proportion of young Democrats who said Biden was very pro-Israel more than doubled, rising from 20.6% in October to 41.5% in November, while a smaller number (0 to 2.4%) said he was very pro-Palestinian.

The number of Democrats who said that Biden’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict makes them less likely to vote for him, if the presidential elections were held “today,” increased from 10.8% in October 2018 to 14.8% in November, while the percentage of those who said they would be more likely to vote for Biden decreased. From 28.4% in October to 17.6%. The change in the positions of Republicans and independents on this issue was within the margin of error.

Professor Telhami commented on the results of the poll, saying, “The two polls that we conducted since the beginning of the war in Israel and Gaza show the largest changes in positions that we have measured from one poll to another over the years, in tracking American public positions on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, and with the continuation of this war, and its attraction to a greater extent.” "If there is a great deal of national and international interest, situations may remain volatile."

Source: Al-Sharq Al awsat