The United States' historical alliances are facing their toughest test in decades, as President Donald Trump's policies during the military confrontation with Iran are causing deep concern in Western, Asian, and Gulf capitals. Doubts are growing about Washington's commitment to defending its partners in future crises, especially after a series of decisions that allies considered to be undermining the foundations of collective security.
Since the outbreak of the war about ten weeks ago, the American administration's approach has seemed to lean towards conditional isolationism, with Trump linking military support to the extent of allies' financial and political contributions. This trend has pushed relations with traditional partners into a phase of tension and complexity, amidst questions about the fate of the Washington-led international order.
Despite indications that the United States and Iran are slowly moving towards a diplomatic exit from the crisis, the damage to mutual trust appears to be far-reaching. Observers believe that the White House's fluctuations since Trump's return have created a state of uncertainty among leaders in Europe and East Asia alike.
Some allied countries have already begun exploring alternative paths and building parallel alliances to reduce their complete reliance on the American security umbrella. Meanwhile, international powers such as Russia and China are seeking to exploit these gaps to enhance their strategic influence and present themselves as more stable alternatives on the global stage.
Tension with the European continent peaked after Washington joined the military strikes against Iran in late February, a move made without sufficient public evidence regarding Iran's nuclear program. The Iranian response of closing the Strait of Hormuz caused an energy crisis whose economic repercussions directly affected the European heartland.
The disagreements were not limited to the military aspect but extended to previous economic and political issues such as tariffs and reduced aid to Ukraine. These accumulations have made European capitals more cautious in dealing with American demands and more eager to achieve a kind of strategic independence.
The decision to withdraw five thousand American soldiers from Germany caused a shock within NATO, especially since it came in response to German criticism of American policy towards Tehran. The cancellation of the deployment of 'Tomahawk' missiles also reflected a decline in military coordination that was previously considered the cornerstone of European security.
Trump did not stop there; he also hinted at the possibility of reducing military presence in Italy and Spain due to their opposition to the war, questioning the usefulness of his country remaining within NATO. These statements raised fears of selective activation of the collective defense clause, threatening the historical unity of the alliance.
In contrast, European countries have begun to intensify their efforts to enhance internal defense cooperation and increase national armament budgets. This trend aims to develop joint military capabilities that ensure the protection of the continent should Washington decide to proceed with a policy of withdrawal or reduced commitments.
In the Gulf region, the American administration's handling of threats to vital facilities in the UAE caused frustration. Trump downplayed the seriousness of these attacks, giving the impression that American security guarantees were no longer as robust as they had been in past decades.
Countries in the region fear that secret or public negotiations between Washington and Tehran could lead to an agreement that does not take into account the interests of regional allies. This concern is prompting some capitals to re-evaluate their diplomatic options and seek new balances that ensure their national security away from American electoral fluctuations.
In Asia, Japan and South Korea are watching this shift with great concern, given their significant reliance on American deterrence against rising regional powers. Tokyo has already begun to strengthen its security partnerships with countries such as Britain and Australia to compensate for any potential decline in the American role.
Russia and China are observing this scene with great interest, as Moscow has benefited from rising energy prices and the West's preoccupation with the Iranian issue. Meanwhile, Beijing is trying to portray itself as a reliable international partner, exploiting the state of confusion suffered by traditional Western alliances under the Trump administration.
In conclusion, experts believe that the war with Iran may not be just a passing crisis, but a historical turning point in the shape of the international order. The way Trump managed this crisis has left deep wounds in the body of alliances, which could lead to a multipolar world where American hegemony diminishes.
Trump's current approach continues to undermine the international order based on traditional alliances, especially with his escalating anger towards NATO countries.
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Cracks in the Wall of Alliances: How the War with Iran Reshaped Washington's Relationship with its Partners?