The Middle East region these days stands on the brink of an abyss amidst the increasing American military buildup around Iran, and Iran's warnings of the repercussions of any aggression or war launched against it, regardless of its level, degree, and objectives. This brink is the most dangerous since the American-Israeli conflict with Iran began in 1979 after the victory of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, which brought about comprehensive changes in thought, politics, economy, culture, and social life. The forty-seven years of this conflict and animosity have witnessed constant tensions, continuous charging, and unceasing mobilization, reaching a shadow war between Israel and Iran, represented by drone attacks on commercial ships, explosions in ports, assassinations of scientists, and attacks on centers, targets, leaders, and figures in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and elsewhere, and supporting opponents of Israel with money, training, and expertise, leading to Iran's completion of its peaceful nuclear project, which began during the time of the deposed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and was frozen for a period before modern Iran resumed and completed it during the time of the late Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani, based on its right to obtain peaceful nuclear energy, like other countries seeking progress and development in accordance with international agreements and global conditions.
Iran's insistence on acquiring nuclear energy was and still is the biggest concern for Israel, the United States, and Western powers in general. This growing and escalating concern is due to the complex of annihilation that Jews suffered in World War II at the hands of Nazism. To illustrate the depth of this complex, it is enough to recall what Netanyahu did when he won the second elections in 1999, where he visited the Israeli army headquarters the next day to review plans to strike Iran, and then said a few days later in a speech to the Knesset that "he will not allow a second annihilation of the Jewish people," in addition to Israel's great concern about being surrounded by armed forces loyal to Iran in southern Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, and General Qassem Soleimani's project, which was working on a long-term strategic project to encircle Israel with a million missiles in Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza. What happened on October 7th contributes to the fears of the aforementioned complex, and the violent, harsh, and unprecedented Israeli reaction is nothing but a huge expression of fear of reaching a state that approximates and resembles the "annihilation" complex, even if on a smaller scale.
In light of this, the scope of the Israeli response to what happened on October 7th was wider than its geographical space in the Gaza Strip; rather, it expanded to include Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. The aggression against Iran on June 13th of last year, despite the security surprise that counts in Israel's favor, the twelve-day war map carried a clear indicator that Israel cannot continue this war for a longer period, because the attrition in it is more painful and agonizing for the Israeli side than it is for the Iranian side. Therefore, the United States intervened with a supporting strike, which involved raiding some important facilities in the nuclear project, and then retreated and withdrew Israel under the umbrella of a ceasefire.
Today, after seven months of this confrontation, during which the Iranian side worked to restore its internal security situation, and accelerate the filling of military gaps revealed by the war, by purchasing advanced warplanes, air defense systems, and developing and compensating ballistic and hypersonic missiles, rapidly and continuously, and maintaining the Iranian position rejecting all conditions diplomatically requested from it, which include zeroing enrichment, shortening the ranges of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, stopping support for resistance forces in the region, and not resolving the issue of the amount of enriched uranium it possesses except in the event of a comprehensive, balanced agreement, all these Iranian positions and others clashed with the new American approach seeking to implement Trump's electoral slogans with an expansive and urgent mechanism that does not wait for delay, the essence of which is the fear of the American administration, led by Trump, that the United States will lose its global position in the face of China's and Russia's growth and global expansion, and the emergence of blocs such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that threaten the unipolarity of the United States economically and politically. Therefore, the approach towards Iran with mobilization, siege, and the threat of war and regime change does not allow the luxury of time for diplomacy to defuse the crisis, and thus the war will be faster than we imagine, and greater than politicians and analysts expect, because the list of programs that Trump seeks to achieve during his remaining three years in power is large and crowded, and faces visible living obstacles, and unexpected obstacles.
The goal of the war will be primarily to overthrow the regime, completing what happened with Venezuela and its president Maduro. This goal in Iran may require great force and wide stages of fire, and days, weeks, and months of fighting, beyond Trump's and Netanyahu's estimates, because this war is not intended for Iran only, but for China and Russia, as if Iran constitutes the knot that stands in Washington's way towards the South China Sea, and the borders of Russia and Croatia. Thus, the keys to the war cannot be controlled by the Americans and Israelis because the military ambiguity practiced by Iran makes both the American and Israeli sides, despite their insistence on getting rid of this Iranian regime as an urgent need, in anxiety and hesitation, and even a lack of clear foresight of the results of this war and its consequences.
The Americans, and behind them the Israelis and Westerners, have grown weary of the Iranian situation that has defied them throughout the past five decades, and the time has come, according to their estimates, to close this file completely, in light of this wave of changes the world is witnessing at the hands of Trump and his ambitions for control and dominance. But what Trump and Netanyahu behind him do not want to solve, or both are unable to solve, is the cipher of Iran's Islamic Revolution that enabled Iran to stand firm and challenge for almost five decades, despite the siege and sanctions that no one in history has been subjected to in such quantity and duration, and the level of progress and status that Tehran has reached at the regional and global levels, whether military, economic, or scientific. Therefore, with the inevitability of war, it is impossible to predict the endings, or control the mechanisms, threads, and scope of the coming military conflict, which in my opinion, Iran will control most, and utilize to thwart the war's objectives, and even brake the Trumpian impulse towards dominance and control and the re-establishment of the modern face of colonialism, dependency, and the plundering of peoples' resources.
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The Inevitability of War... and Braking Trump's Impulses