A Reading of the Framework Agreement Between Lebanon and Israel

The framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel, announced on Friday, is an Israeli attempt to indirectly strike Iran, by entrenching itself behind international law and agreements in its conflict with Hezbollah, which has lost much of its strength. This has upset the internal balances in Lebanon in favor of the logic of the legitimate state, which should work for the benefit of Lebanon, away from involving this country in external geopolitical conflicts that do not respect the sovereignty of the state or the sanctity of the spirit of the Lebanese people, who suffer from Israeli killing, destruction, and displacement.Regarding the content, Netanyahu raised points related to experimental areas that will be under the control of the Lebanese army in coordination with Israel, in preparation for a gradual withdrawal. This logic, although it seems contradictory to Lebanese national sovereignty, appears very realistic given the hard power that Israel possesses, and behind it the dominant pole in the world, by which I mean the United States of America.However, there is no solution in Lebanon to protect the Lebanese people except the diplomatic option, and the re-arming of the Lebanese army to impose its strength, for a state without power will never stand, in addition to finding a negotiating path with Hezbollah, and perhaps opening a discussion with Iran itself, so that an internal war does not break out in Lebanon, which the region can do without, given the nature of the political and sectarian balances that cannot be overlooked.The position of the Amal movement seems very ambiguous, but it may be interpreted as an unannounced and implicit acceptance of new balances in Lebanon, after the political developments in the region that have shuffled the cards.As for Iran, it believes that this agreement is directed against it, and an attempt to isolate its ally Hezbollah by using the Lebanese army, and perhaps other parties with logistical support, in addition to military coordination with Israel, according to statements by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Consequently, Iran will find itself cornered, and may push its ally Hezbollah to take to the streets, or even engage in a confrontation with the Lebanese state. Iran may risk military intervention, or using the Strait of Hormuz card to pressure regional powers, and behind them the United States of America and Israel.I believe that the memorandum of understanding between America and Iran has moved from the stage of direct negotiations to the stage of sending hot messages and hitting below the belt, in order to score points that may be used in negotiations that are moving towards comprehensive solutions for the region's issues. Each party will use its cards in a way that suits it to achieve a political accomplishment that it can market to its domestic audience.