Smotrich's Threats: Harbingers of a New Phase, with the Evacuation of Khan al-Ahmar as its Gateway

Dr. Khalil Tafakji: Targeting Khan al-Ahmar is part of the "Greater Jerusalem 2050" project and aims to create a geographical reality where the area becomes a contiguous Israeli space without a Palestinian presence. Abdullah Abu Rahma: The targeting of Khan al-Ahmar comes within the framework of the "E1" plan, which aims to connect "Ma'ale Adumim" with surrounding settlements, extending to Jerusalem. Dr. Hassan Breijieh: Talk of reclaiming Areas (A) and (B) reflects a growing Israeli trend to undermine Palestinian authorities and re-impose direct control. Mohammed Abu Allan Dragmeh: Smotrich's vision is to control about 82% of the West Bank and leave Palestinians with about 18% of it in the form of "cantons." Dr. Suhail Diab: The movements in Khan al-Ahmar, Jerusalem, and Al-Aqsa are part of an Israeli strategic vision to resolve the conflict and impose a fait accompli in a race against time. Fayez Abbas: Netanyahu giving Smotrich the green light to evacuate Khan al-Ahmar is unlikely given the absence of American support and the potential for escalating international reactions. Ramallah - Exclusive to "Al-Quds" - The recent threats made by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to evacuate the Khan al-Ahmar community east of Jerusalem, along with his statements regarding reclaiming control over areas classified as (A) and (B), and the threat of further targeting the Palestinian Authority, raise concerns about accelerated Israeli trends towards a new phase aimed at reshaping the geographical and political reality in the West Bank, in parallel with escalating pressures on the Palestinian Authority. Officials and specialists in settlement and Israeli affairs, in separate interviews with "Al-Quds," warn that targeting Khan al-Ahmar is not merely a limited field measure, but rather comes within the context of broad settlement projects that seek to create geographical contiguity between the settlements surrounding Jerusalem and connect them to the Jordan Valley area, by removing Palestinian Bedouin communities and imposing new realities that would entrench the separation between the north and south of the West Bank, and isolate Jerusalem from its Palestinian extension, thereby weakening the chances of establishing a geographically contiguous Palestinian state. At the same time, they believe that Smotrich's threat to reclaim areas (A) and (B), coupled with continuous threats against the Palestinian Authority, reflects a trend towards reducing the PA's role and weakening its political and administrative presence, whether through economic and financial pressures or through expanding field and security interventions, amid indications that the Israeli government seeks to impose a new equation based on strengthening direct control over the land and undermining the foundations of any future political settlement and striking the two-state solution. The "Greater Jerusalem 2050" Settlement Project The expert in settlement affairs, Dr. Khalil Tafakji, believes that the threats of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich regarding the displacement of the Khan al-Ahmar Bedouin community east of Jerusalem cannot be read in isolation from a broader strategic project that Israel seeks to implement under the title "Greater Jerusalem 2050," which aims to reshape the Palestinian geography and demography east of Jerusalem and connect the occupied city with the Jordan Valley area, through settlement expansion and the displacement of Palestinian Bedouin communities from large areas in the West Bank. Ethnic Cleansing Against Bedouin Communities Tafakji explains that Khan al-Ahmar represents one of the central links in this project, as it is the largest Bedouin community extending towards the Jordan Valley, pointing out that what is happening falls within a systematic ethnic cleansing policy targeting Bedouin communities, which began in the northern and central Jordan Valley and extends south towards Masafer Yatta, with the aim of emptying those areas of their Palestinian residents and tightening Israeli control over them. Exploiting the International Criminal Court Issue Tafakji indicates that Smotrich is trying to exploit the International Criminal Court issue to justify accelerating the implementation of these plans, by portraying them as a response to what the Israeli side describes as hostile actions or a declaration of war, but the real motives go beyond the current political moment and are linked to long-term Israeli plans that have been prepared in advance. Tafakji clarifies that the Israeli focus on Khan al-Ahmar is not limited to the E1 settlement project, as some Israeli organizations, including the "Peace Now" movement, present it, but rather is linked to a broader plan related to the "Jerusalem 2050" project, which includes establishing an integrated settlement, economic, and tourism infrastructure extending east of Jerusalem to the Nabi Musa and Al-Buqai'a area, where Israel plans to build a large airport, in addition to developing extensive infrastructure including drilling groundwater wells, laying water networks, and establishing railway lines. Settlement Tourism Space Tafakji also points out that the Israeli plan includes transforming the area into a huge tourist and hotel space, in parallel with expanding existing settlements and establishing 32 new settlements, most notably the "Nof Prat" settlement located north of Khan al-Ahmar, in addition to establishing industrial zones and infrastructure projects that serve the settlement expansion in the area. Removing Khan al-Ahmar as a Condition for Implementation According to Tafakji, the removal of Khan al-Ahmar is a fundamental condition for the completion of this project, explaining that Israel seeks to create a geographical reality where anyone coming to the area feels that they are moving within a contiguous Israeli space, "without seeing any Arab presence on either side of Road No. 1" connecting Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley. Tafakji stresses that Israel has been working for years to build an integrated infrastructure network connecting settlements with water, roads, and sewage networks, separately from Palestinian communities, thereby ensuring full readiness for any future step related to annexation. "Al-Hay Al-Shami" Plan Tafakji notes that the "Al-Hay Al-Shami" plan in the town of Al-Eizariya southeast of Jerusalem may constitute a potential location for relocating the residents of Khan al-Ahmar, similar to what happened previously with the Jahalin Arabs, considering that all current indicators point to a field preparation process awaiting the appropriate pretext for implementing the displacement. A Practical Trend to Annul Oslo On the other hand, Tafakji considers that the recent Israeli moves in areas (A) and (B) reflect a practical trend to completely end the Oslo Accords, citing what happened in Jenin with the control of lands in the Al-Jabriyat area, and the repeated Israeli talk about returning evacuated settlements such as "Ganim" and "Kadim," in addition to continuous military orders to confiscate lands, as happened in Qabatiya. Tafakji points out that Israeli interventions in the administration of the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron represent a direct intervention in the civil powers granted to Palestinians in areas (B), as part of a gradual process to expand Israeli influence. Burying Any Possibility of an Independent Palestinian State Abdullah Abu Rahma, Director General of the Popular Action Department in the Wall and Settlement Resistance Commission, confirms that Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has continued, since joining the government, to work on imposing Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, and preparing the political and legal groundwork for a broad annexation process, leading to "burying any possibility of establishing an independent Palestinian state." Supporting and Empowering Settler Militias Abu Rahma explains that Smotrich's role was not limited to the governmental aspect, but rather he moved through multiple channels, including enacting laws within the Knesset, and exploiting his position in the Ministry of Finance to inject huge sums of money into settlements, in parallel with policies aimed at accelerating the demolition of Palestinian homes and displacing residents, in addition to his role in the Ministry of War and the Civil Administration, which allows him to issue demolition orders, stop construction, and expand field control over the land. Abu Rahma refers to the "unofficial aspect" of Smotrich's activity, which is represented by supporting and empowering settler militias, by providing funding, vehicles, infrastructure, and roads, in addition to what he announced about legitimizing more than 103 settlements and about 160 settlement outposts during the recent period, bringing the number of settlement outposts to between 360 and 380 outposts on Palestinian lands. In the Context of the Decisive Plan Abu Rahma confirms that these policies come within what is called the "Decisive Plan," which is based on three options for Palestinians: displacement, killing, or living under the conditions of occupation, considering that this vision does not distinguish between areas (A), (B), and (C), but rather targets the entire Palestinian geography. Khan al-Ahmar and the "E1" Plan Regarding the Khan al-Ahmar community, Abu Rahma believes that its targeting comes within a political and settlement context linked to the "E1" plan, which aims to connect the "Ma'ale Adumim" settlement with the surrounding settlements, extending to Jerusalem, which would lead to the separation of the northern West Bank from its south, and the isolation of Jerusalem from its Palestinian surroundings. Abu Rahma points out that Khan al-Ahmar constitutes a central community, but it is surrounded by eighteen other Bedouin communities threatened with targeting within the same plan, which are communities extending between Jabal al-Baba and Nabi Musa. Escalation Against Palestinians to Boost Electoral Position Abu Rahma notes that these moves coincide with internal political pressures faced by Smotrich, and his attempt to use the escalation against Palestinians to strengthen his electoral position, given that he has not yet exceeded the electoral threshold in the upcoming elections, which pushes him to "escalate the rhetoric of displacement and settlement." Abu Rahma confirms that Israeli plans, including the "E1" project, which was approved within a vision extending until 2050, aim to create settlement contiguity between "Ma'ale Adumim" and Jerusalem, with serious implications for the possibility of establishing a Palestinian state, and for separating the north of the West Bank from its south, and completely isolating Jerusalem. Efforts to Confront Abu Rahma confirms that the Commission is conducting a field visit to the Khan al-Ahmar area to consult with the residents and assess developments, with the aim of formulating a plan to confront any potential demolition or displacement steps, stressing that the steadfastness of the residents and popular solidarity are capable of thwarting these plans, as happened in previous stages. Towards Transcending Existing Political Agreements Dr. Hassan Breijieh, a researcher in wall and settlement affairs, believes that the threats of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to displace the residents of Khan al-Ahmar and reclaim control over areas classified as (A) and (B) carry clear political implications that reflect the current Israeli government's tendency to transcend existing political agreements, foremost among them the Oslo Accords, in parallel with accelerating settlement expansion projects in the West Bank. Breijieh explains that Smotrich's statements indicate, first and foremost, his non-recognition of the Oslo Accords and the administrative and geographical divisions that resulted from them in the Palestinian territories, pointing out that talk of reclaiming areas (A) and (B) reflects a growing Israeli trend to undermine Palestinian authorities and re-impose direct control over more lands in the West Bank. Breijieh confirms that these positions also reflect a clear disregard for international conventions and laws, considering that the Israeli escalation towards Khan al-Ahmar comes in the context of a political response to the steps of the International Criminal Court, especially after the issuance of summonses against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Smotrich, which also links the threats to political messages directed to the international community. Breijieh warns that proceeding with the displacement of Khan al-Ahmar will practically pave the way for accelerating the implementation of the E1 project, which would geographically divide the West Bank, by separating its north from its south and isolating Jerusalem, in addition to strengthening Israeli control over major roads and axes, thereby entrenching a reality similar to the apartheid system on Palestinian land. Expanding Settlements and Imposing Control Mohammed Abu Allan Dragmeh, a writer specializing in Israeli affairs, believes that the threats of Israeli Finance Minister and Minister in the Israeli Ministry of War, Bezalel Smotrich, to displace the Khan al-Ahmar community and reclaim areas classified as (A) and (B), represent an extension of a systematic Israeli policy led by Benjamin Netanyahu's government, aimed at expanding settlements and imposing control over the largest possible area of West Bank lands, in parallel with reducing the Palestinian presence geographically and politically, which effectively leads to the elimination of the two-state solution project. Dragmeh explains that Smotrich's statements cannot be separated from the general context adopted by the current Israeli government since its formation, pointing out that talk of displacing Khan al-Ahmar comes within a broader policy targeting Palestinian communities, especially pastoral ones, in different areas of the West Bank. Dragmeh notes that recent years, especially since the start of the war on the Gaza Strip, have witnessed the displacement of dozens of Palestinian Bedouin communities, as part of a continuous escalation of the settlement project and policies of restricting Palestinian residents. Dragmeh indicates that Smotrich's calls to "reclaim" areas classified as (A) and (B) are directly linked to his political slogan based on canceling the Oslo Accords, which he previously described as a "disgrace" that must be erased, considering that this proposal is consistent with an Israeli vision based on controlling the largest possible area of Palestinian lands with the fewest possible number of Palestinians, which would lead to ending any realistic possibility of establishing an independent Palestinian state. Dragmeh confirms that what is happening in the Jordan Valley and the northern West Bank provides a practical model for understanding the nature of the threats associated with Khan al-Ahmar, explaining that the policies implemented on the ground reflect a trend towards imposing new realities through settlement expansion and land confiscation, thereby gradually redrawing the geographical and political map of the West Bank. Not a Reaction to the ICC Memorandum Dragmeh refutes the Israeli narrative that attempts to present these threats as a reaction to the decisions of the International Criminal Court, describing this justification as "lacking substance." Dragmeh points out that Smotrich himself spoke during a press conference in which he announced his intention to displace Khan al-Ahmar about what he described as the current government's settlement "achievements," boasting about building 100 Israeli settlements and establishing 160 agricultural settlement outposts that controlled approximately one million dunams of West Bank lands, and considered these steps a "revolution" in the settlement file. The Palestinian Authority and the Accumulated Crisis Regarding the Palestinian Authority, Dragmeh believes that Smotrich's threats to launch a "war" against it are not new, explaining that the PA has been facing an escalating economic siege for more than three years since the formation of Netanyahu's current government, through financial deductions and Israeli legislation that targeted its resources, including deductions related to allocations for prisoners and the families of martyrs, in addition to laws compensating those Israel describes as victims of resistance operations. According to Dragmeh, the ultimate goal of these policies is to push the Palestinian Authority towards a state of institutional incapacity, which could lead to internal unrest or weakening its political structure, ultimately undermining the Palestinian entity itself. Control Over Approximately 82% of the West Bank Area Dragmeh believes that the vision proposed by Smotrich is based on Israel's control over approximately 82% of the West Bank area, while keeping Palestinians in fragmented areas that constitute about 18% of the area in the form of "cantons" that do not amount to a viable political entity. Dragmeh believes that the final outcomes of these policies, according to existing indicators, are moving towards confiscating more Palestinian lands, confining Palestinians to the narrowest possible area, and ending any horizon for a political solution based on two states, in addition to weakening the Palestinian Authority, which, from the Israeli perspective, is a political structure that could form the basis for any future Palestinian state. Resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict Suhail Diab, a professor of political science and specialist in Israeli affairs, confirms that what is happening in Khan al-Ahmar, Jerusalem, and Al-Aqsa Mosque cannot be read as separate or cumulative events, but rather falls within a comprehensive Israeli "strategic vision" aimed at resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in a race against time, especially in the current phase preceding the Israeli elections. Eliminating the Palestinian Dream Diab explains that the coming months will be a pivotal stage in focusing Israeli efforts on the West Bank, through policies aimed at "eliminating the Palestinian dream" by imposing new realities on the ground, taking advantage of the international community's preoccupation with regional wars and crises, such as the war in Ukraine and tensions with Iran, which allows for the passage of settlement and political projects that have been on the table for many years. Imposing a Fait Accompli in the West Bank Diab points out that the central goal, according to this vision, is not limited to influencing the results of the Israeli elections, but extends to imposing a fait accompli in the West Bank, thereby determining the future of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict for many years to come, whether towards strengthening the Palestinian narrative internationally or breaking it in favor of the Israeli vision. Diab clarifies that the current Israeli strategy, especially after the events of October 7, 2023, is based on radically reshaping the reality in the West Bank, through a gradual cancellation of what was agreed upon in Oslo, and transforming more than 80% of the West Bank area into areas under Israeli security and administrative control, while confining about 90% of the Palestinian population to no more than 10% of the land, as part of an attempt to re-engineer Palestinian "demography and geography." Diab confirms that these policies also include the complete Judaization of Jerusalem, and isolating it from its Palestinian surroundings, in addition to intensifying settlement activity, where more than 100 settlements and 106 settlement outposts are in the process of being established during the recent period, in parallel with attempts to "dry up the Palestinian Authority" economically and weaken it until its collapse. Completely Ending the PA's Existence Diab confirms that the recent statements by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reflect this trend, especially his talk about "declaring war" on the Palestinian Authority in light of its approach to the International Criminal Court, pointing out that the declared goal in extremist Israeli discourse is to completely end the PA's existence. Diab considers that the West Bank has become a "main theater" for the conflict at this stage, as the Israeli government seeks to regain "strategic initiative" after recent military and political failures in more than one regional arena, which pushes it to refocus on the Palestinian arena as the most amenable field for imposing political and field achievements. Diab confirms that what is happening today represents an Israeli attempt to reproduce a reality similar to what happened in 1948, by reducing and reshaping the Palestinian presence, stressing that the coming months will be decisive in determining the direction of the conflict, whether towards strengthening the Palestinian narrative internationally or towards entrenching Israeli control over the land. Justifying the Targeting with the ICC Issue Fayez Abbas, a writer specializing in Israeli affairs, believes that the threats of Israeli Finance Minister and Minister in the Israeli Ministry of War, Bezalel Smotrich, to evacuate the Khan al-Ahmar community, came in the context of a direct reaction to the International Criminal Court's announcement of issuing an arrest warrant against him, pointing out that Smotrich seemed to have entered a state of political escalation following the decision. Abbas explains that Smotrich quickly attacked the International Criminal Court and accused it of "anti-Semitism" and hostility to Jews, coinciding with his announcement of his intention to sign an order to evacuate Khan al-Ahmar, a file that has been a subject of Israeli hesitation for many years due to political sensitivity and anticipated international reactions. Khan al-Ahmar as an International Symbol Abbas points out that Khan al-Ahmar has become an "international symbol" in confronting Israeli settlement policies over the past years, especially since its geographical location is central in the area connecting the northern and southern West Bank, which makes any evacuation or settlement expansion there have direct implications for the possibility of implementing the two-state solution, by entrenching the geographical separation between parts of the West Bank. Abbas explains that Smotrich did not stop at the Khan al-Ahmar file, but also escalated his threats towards the Palestinian Authority, again declaring "war" on the PA through economic and security tools, including continuing to deduct clearance funds and pressuring the Palestinian economy through his powers in the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of War. Abbas believes that Smotrich needs political support from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at this stage, but Abbas rules out that Netanyahu would give the green light to evacuate Khan al-Ahmar in the absence of American support and the potential for escalating international reactions, noting that Smotrich continues to promote what he calls a "revolution" in the "Biblical homeland" in the occupied West Bank.