Israel is one election away from peace

For the first time in many years, I believe that peace between Israelis and Palestinians may be much closer than most people imagine. Not because Hamas has changed, nor because the occupation has ended, but because the strategic landscape in the Middle East has fundamentally shifted.

Israel may be just one election away from peace.

After October 7th, and after the hostage crisis, the war in Gaza, and the massive settlement expansion and ethnic cleansing underway in the West Bank, this statement seems like a fantasy to many Israelis and Palestinians. Most Israelis no longer believe that Palestinians are true partners for peace, and most Palestinians no longer believe that Israel intends to end the occupation or allow for a real Palestinian independence. Yet, behind the shock and despair, the foundations for a regional political settlement are more mature today than they have been at any time since the Oslo years.

The contours of peace have long been known: two states based on the 1967 borders with an agreed-upon land swap, security arrangements that guarantee Israel's security and Palestine's sovereignty, Jerusalem as the capital of both states, and regional guarantees. We do not suffer from a lack of diplomatic knowledge, but from a lack of political courage.

The Middle East of 2026 is not the Middle East of the past. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Morocco all have strategic interests in regional integration, economic development, and security cooperation. There is a growing recognition that the reconstruction of Gaza and the stabilization of the region cannot be achieved without a political horizon for the Palestinians.

Military force alone cannot resolve this conflict. Israel can destroy Hamas's military infrastructure and fully occupy Gaza, but it cannot destroy the Palestinian national movement and the aspirations of an entire people for freedom, just as Palestinians could not destroy Israel through terrorism and violence. Every new war ends with the same unresolved political questions.

Precisely for this reason, the upcoming Israeli elections hold exceptional importance.

Under a different Israeli government, things that seem impossible today could suddenly become politically possible: a serious regional initiative with Saudi participation, international support for Gaza's reconstruction, the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, and a gradual path to full normalization between Israel and the entire Arab world.

At the heart of this possibility stands President Donald Trump.

Many readers may find this surprising coming from someone who has spent decades advocating for a negotiated two-state solution. But Trump may be in a unique position to achieve what previous American presidents could not.

Every American president since Jimmy Carter has treated Palestinian-Israeli peace as a diplomatic process. Trump, however, treats it as a regional strategic deal. Unlike previous presidents, Trump has credibility with the Israeli right, and no Israeli prime minister can portray him as anti-Israel or weak on security issues.

Trump also understands that this conflict cannot be resolved in isolation from the broader Middle East. Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco are not just observers, but essential partners in reconstruction, regional security arrangements, and integrating Israel into a broader regional framework.

This is not a revival of the Oslo Accords.

Oslo tried to build peace by gradually creating trust between Israelis and Palestinians alone. But Oslo did not fail because peace was impossible, but because its opponents on both sides systematically worked to undermine it.

On the Palestinian side, Hamas and other rejectionist groups carried out suicide bombings specifically aimed at destroying Israeli support for the peace process. On the Israeli side, Benjamin Netanyahu and most of the Israeli right consistently worked to weaken Oslo from its early days. Netanyahu built a large part of his political career on opposing the agreements and convincing Israelis that any regional settlement would bring terrorism and danger.

After the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, Hamas's terrorism and the opposition of the Israeli right fed each other. Every bombing carried out by Hamas strengthened the Israeli right politically, and every settlement expansion strengthened Palestinian rejectionists. Thus, extremists on both sides became partners in destroying trust.

The tragedy is that Oslo actually proved that Israelis and Palestinians are capable of direct negotiation, mutual recognition, security coordination, and building foundations for coexistence. What Oslo lacked was not the possibility, but the leadership capable of protecting the process from its enemies.

What may emerge today is, to a large extent, the opposite of Oslo: a top-down regional framework, driven by shared strategic interests between the United States, Arab states, Israel, and pragmatic Palestinians. In this framework, normalization with Saudi Arabia, the reconstruction of Gaza, security guarantees, and the establishment of a Palestinian state become interconnected parts of a larger agreement.

But none of this will happen unless Israeli politicians begin to prepare Israeli public opinion for peace during the upcoming election campaign.

Israeli politics has long been dominated by a discourse of fear, and the illusion that military force alone can guarantee the future. Politicians competed over who seemed tougher, and who could convince Israelis that “there is no partner,” and therefore no alternative to perpetual conflict.

Responsible leadership must begin by telling Israelis the truth: Israel cannot remain forever a democratic, Jewish, secure, and prosperous state while continuing to permanently control millions of Palestinians deprived of their national rights.

Conversely, Palestinian leaders bear a similar historical responsibility.

Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza must clearly demonstrate to Israeli public opinion that they are ready to end armed struggle and pursue a lasting political settlement with Israel. Israelis need to hear Palestinian leaders clearly state that there will be no permanent armed militias alongside a Palestinian state, no continuous calls for the destruction of Israel, and no glorification of terrorism.

This is especially important after October 7th. No Israeli government can move towards peace unless Israelis are convinced that Palestinians are also ready to move towards coexistence.

The Arab world also has a fundamental role, unprecedented at any previous stage.

For decades, Israelis were taught that peace with Palestinians would only bring insecurity and isolation. Today, Arab states can prove the opposite: that resolving the conflict can open the door to Israel's full integration into the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia plays the central role in this transformation.

If Saudi Arabia publicly commits to normalization with Israel within the framework of a serious political process leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state, most Israelis will immediately understand that peace is no longer just an end to the conflict with Palestinians, but Israel's transformation into a legitimate and welcome partner in the Arab and Islamic worlds.

Imagine Israel economically and diplomatically integrated with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Morocco. Imagine regional infrastructure projects, energy partnerships, tourism, technological cooperation, and joint security arrangements against extremism and Iran.

Arab states can help Israelis understand that peace is not a concession that leads to weakness, but a gateway to regional legitimacy, prosperity, security, and normalization on a scale Israel has never known before.

None of this guarantees success. Hamas still exists, Israeli extremists still reject a Palestinian state, and Palestinian politics remains divided. But despite everything, there is no military solution to this conflict, and there never has been.

There is only one future in this land: two states living in cooperation, security coordination, economic partnership, and mutual recognition — or endless war.

Israelis and Palestinians have long known the features of peace. The real question is: Will Israelis elect leaders willing to move towards it? Will Palestinian leaders prepare their people for coexistence? And will the Arab world and the United States help make this future politically possible?

The distance between war and peace in the Middle East may not be measured in years, but in just one election.