Confidential US intelligence reports indicate that Iran possesses the ability to withstand economically and militarily for several months to come, despite the strict naval blockade imposed by the United States on the Strait of Hormuz. This assessment raises major questions about the effectiveness of the maximum pressure strategy pursued by US President Donald Trump against the regime in Tehran.
Informed sources, citing intelligence documents presented to US administration officials this week, reported that Tehran is capable of absorbing the repercussions of the blockade for a period ranging from three to four months. The reports clarified that the severe economic crisis that Washington is banking on may not materialize immediately as expected in political circles.
The field data contained in the assessment indicates a clear gap between military reality and the optimistic statements from the White House. While President Trump asserts the erosion of Iranian capabilities, intelligence agencies believe that Tehran still retains military strengths that have not been decisively affected by recent airstrikes.
According to responsible sources, Iran still controls about 75% of its mobile missile launch platforms, which are military assets difficult to target with high precision. Estimates also indicate that Iran's missile inventory still retains 70% of its strength compared to before the outbreak of direct military confrontations.
The reports revealed intensive activity by Iranian technical units that succeeded in reopening most of the fortified underground weapons depots. These units are working to repair partially damaged missiles, in addition to assembling new systems that were in the final stages of manufacturing before the start of military operations.
In contrast, President Donald Trump adopts a completely different narrative, having recently stated that Iran's missile capabilities have undergone a comprehensive destruction process. Trump claimed that what remains with Tehran does not exceed 19% of its previous arsenal, considering that Iran's deterrent power has reached its lowest historical levels.
This discrepancy in estimates reflects an internal disagreement within the US administration regarding the effectiveness of the military option and the naval blockade. While the political wing believes that pressure is yielding results quickly, technical reports warn that the Iranian regime has shown unexpected resilience in dealing with harsh conditions.
On the other hand, a senior intelligence official confirmed that the blockade has already begun to reduce the Iranian state's financial revenues and accelerate the pace of economic collapse in some sectors. He pointed out that the Iranian naval forces suffered heavy losses in lives and equipment, which led military leaders to withdraw from public view.
Despite these losses, US officials believe that the leadership in Tehran is showing increasing intransigence and confidence in its ability to overcome this critical phase. These officials believe that the regime is willing to sacrifice the living stability of civilians in order to preserve the military and political power structure of the state.
These developments come amid unprecedented regional tension that began since the joint US and Israeli strikes last February. Tehran responded then by targeting the interests of Washington's allies in the Gulf region, leading to its strategic decision to close the Strait of Hormuz to international navigation.
On the diplomatic front, Pakistani mediation in Islamabad failed to reach a sustainable agreement to end the state of blockade. Despite the announcement of a temporary truce last April, the stubbornness of positions prevented its transformation into a permanent peace agreement guaranteeing freedom of navigation in the vital waterway.
It is worth noting that the United States has imposed a full naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz since mid-April, under the pretext of 'restoring freedom of navigation.' President Trump recently announced the continuation of this blockade at full strength, with the suspension of some political projects related to the region until further notice.
Iran can withstand the consequences of the blockade for at least three to four months before entering a severe crisis.
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US Intelligence Reports: Iran Can Withstand Months Despite Hormuz Blockade and Contradictions in Trump's Estimates