A state of extreme tension hangs over the political and military scene in the Gaza Strip, as questions increase about the resilience of the recently concluded ceasefire agreement. While the corridors of the 'Peace Council' promote positive results, field movements and statements issued by the Israeli Prime Minister's office indicate the possibility of the situation exploding at any moment.
Mohannad Mustafa, an expert in Israeli affairs, believes that the positive atmosphere that the Executive Director of the Peace Council, Nikolay Mladenov, is trying to market does not find a real echo with Benjamin Netanyahu. Mustafa explained that the absence of any official Israeli position confirming commitment to calm is an implicit rejection of demands to introduce aid and cease hostilities.
In contrast, the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) insists on the necessity of completing all requirements of the first phase of the agreement before moving on to any subsequent understandings. The movement has called on the United Nations and international mediators to exert real pressure on Tel Aviv to prevent it from reneging on its security and humanitarian obligations towards the residents of the Strip.
Analytical readings indicate that Netanyahu is effectively seeking to return to 'square one' and resume widespread military operations, exploiting the sensitive political timing. The Israeli Prime Minister aims to convince the administration of US President Donald Trump that diplomatic paths to disarm the resistance have reached a dead end.
On the ground, the behavior of the occupation army in the areas it controls, estimated at about 60% of the Strip's area, reflects long-term intentions for permanent presence. The construction of military bases and the systematic demolition of residential blocks confirm that the occupation adopts an ideological vision that rejects the idea of complete withdrawal in the foreseeable future.
For his part, political analyst Iyad Al-Qara affirmed that Palestinian factions have fulfilled their obligations regarding the prisoner file, while Israel has not taken any concrete steps in return. On the contrary, the occupation authorities have resorted to inventing what he described as 'orange lines' to continue systematic assassinations and killings under the guise of calm.
Al-Qara described the living reality inside Gaza as having reached a stage of 'nothingness,' as the limited aid entering the Strip has failed to meet the minimum needs of citizens. He pointed out that the resistance categorically rejects fragmenting the agreement or moving to the disarmament file before implementing all provisions of the first phase.
As for the American approach, it revolves around President Trump's desire to achieve a 'grand deal' that guarantees the disarmament of factions and the formation of a technocratic government to administer the Strip. Former White House officials believe that Washington understands the complexities of the reality, but it is betting on mutual pressure to prevent the complete collapse of the peace project.
Observers warned that the failure of mediators to compel Israel to fulfill the requirements of calm means remaining in a cycle of successive crises. The current bet remains on the ability of Cairo and international mediators to curb the escalatory tendencies of the extremist Israeli right, represented by Netanyahu and his ministers.
The option of resuming war remains a looming political tool used by Netanyahu to strengthen his position domestically in Israel, despite a potential American 'veto.' The field in Gaza is currently experiencing a continuous 'semi-war,' as Israeli violations continue to target civilians and infrastructure daily.
It is worth noting that this political deadlock comes after a genocidal war launched by Israel since October 2023, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of martyrs and injured. The war caused the destruction of 90% of vital facilities in Gaza, amid UN estimates that reconstruction requires a massive budget exceeding 70 billion dollars.
The behavior of the occupation army in the areas it controls, from building military bases to systematic demolition, reflects an ideological intention to remain, not to withdraw.
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