Open Wars and Ceasefire Agreements on Paper..!

No one expected the war on Gaza to open the door to wars in the region and the area to this extent, as it seems that Israel seized the opportunity to open wars on fronts other than the Gaza front, believing that these fronts are interconnected and thus wants to eliminate this interconnectedness, which Palestinian factions before the war called "unity of the arenas," and at the same time, Israel wants to dismantle the military power of these fronts and disarm them. Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and some resistance factions in Gaza believed that this unity could achieve great goals, but it was not in the strategic vision of these movements that wars would continue for years without stopping until the Israelis were convinced that they had completely eliminated what is called the unity of the arenas and ended armament by disarming those factions in Gaza and some battalions that were operating in the West Bank, in addition to Hezbollah's weapons in Lebanon. The war in Gaza was not for revenge against Hamas after the October attack, nor was it a defensive war; rather, it is a strategic war to achieve strategic goals, the most important of which is to dismantle the issues of conflict and eliminate the Palestinian dream of establishing a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders. As long as these goals are not achieved, the Israelis may not close and end this war. I also believe that this applies to Lebanon, Iran, and the Houthis in Yemen. Everything I mentioned is based on the premise that Israel is a war state that seeks to create wars more than it seeks to make comprehensive peace that built the long conflict with the Palestinians. In fact, we noticed that it concludes peace agreements with countries that have no history of tensions or armed conflicts with Israel and leaves countries and regions experiencing border tensions or armed conflicts like Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank, not to achieve mutual calm, but rather to escalate fighting with these countries and regions whenever it deems that this might achieve its goals of perpetuating the conflict and not ending it.

"Eyal Zamir," Chief of Staff of the occupation army, said, "We are still in a multi-front battle, and the army is working and will continue to work to establish a new security reality, and the army remains on high alert and vigilance for the return of intense fighting in all sectors, and this may continue until the end of 2026." This indicates that Israel has no plans to close this war in the short term and abandon carrying out attacks under the name of security control and the new security reality. The occupation state believes that the new security reality has now been achieved by force and hegemony over Palestinian resources, not by real peace agreements, and it is skilled at finding pretexts to keep wars open for this purpose, and if it does not find them, we find it creating pretexts and employing them to keep wars open. When Israel launched the war on Gaza nearly thirty months ago, it wanted a war to change the geography and demography, not only in Gaza but in all the territories of 1967. Therefore, it does not want to close it merely by achieving operational goals and eliminating the first and second-tier leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and at the same time weakening these movements to the extent that they need years to rebuild their military structure, in my estimation. It is noted that this war has taken the form of intense offensive waves, through which it focused on demolishing cities and crushing their civilian infrastructure, and this is what it is doing now in southern Lebanon and is still doing in the yellow line in Gaza despite the ceasefire agreement in Gaza according to President Trump's plan to end the war in Gaza and despite the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon that the Lebanon-Israel mechanism reached through negotiations between the two parties in Washington. The truth is that this is Israel's methodology in dealing with the fronts in the region, and even Iran, for which a ceasefire was announced between it and America by US President Trump, and mediations are now underway to reach a final agreement that ends the state of war between America and Iran, and of course, Israel remains unrestrained and unwilling to respect any agreement despite the understanding between America and Israel and the request from Israel to respect the agreements concluded by the Trump administration, whether in Gaza, Lebanon, or with Iran. The closest proof of this is the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, which was announced nearly two hundred days ago without Israel committing to stopping it for even one day, and the killing continues outside the yellow line, and we now see this extending to Lebanon, which is negotiating with Israel without committing to a ceasefire.

It is true that the pace of the war in both Gaza and Lebanon has decreased, but it has not stopped, and the war remains open; Israel does not want to end it. The negotiations taking place in Cairo between the representative of the Peace Council in Gaza, High Commissioner Mladenov, are nothing more than negotiations outside the framework of full commitment to a ceasefire, even if the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza takes over from Hamas, Israel will keep its hand free to carry out limited or unlimited military operations in any area it wants in the Strip, even within the areas it has designated as humanitarian areas in Al-Mawasi and displacement camps, and the ceasefire was required to be observed by one party without the other. In Lebanon, too, Israel unleashes its military power in what it calls a yellow line eight to ten kilometers deep from the border into Lebanese territory, where it does not commit to a ceasefire and continues to demolish villages in southern Lebanon and still uses its drone missiles to kill Lebanese whom it claims are members of Lebanese Hezbollah. I consider that all ceasefire agreements reached by mediators between Israel and Gaza on one hand, or between Israel and Lebanon on the other, are nothing more than ceasefire agreements on paper, and unfortunately, the United States knows all the details and constantly receives reports about the daily killing of Palestinian children and civilians in Gaza, the demolition of residential blocks, the destruction of buildings, and the changing reality of the yellow line to seize more land and the continued killing of Lebanese civilians, even reaching the point of killing some UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon, and Israel may not intend to respect any ceasefire agreement to be a comprehensive stop in all areas of the Strip and all areas of Lebanon.

The question that all observers want to see answered now, for peace and stability to be achieved in the Middle East and the suffering of Palestinians and Lebanese to end, is: How long will Israeli wars remain open in the Middle East, and how long will the ceasefire remain mere words on paper? The truth is that our expectations that these wars would be prolonged were correct, but they will take the form of offensive waves on some areas, one after another, at a lower pace than the major war, and as long as the American approach to this does not change, and as long as the American administration does not resolve and completely end these wars, they will remain open and may not end by the end of 2026, as Israeli military leaders claim. Here we blame America, especially the current Trump administration, and we do not exclude any future administration, whether Democratic or Republican, because it has not reined in the Israeli leader who has come to consider himself a great leader like (Ben-Gurion and Herzl through planning to establish Greater Israel by force, i.e., "Netanyahu") despite all of Israel's human, material, moral, and political losses, which he puts behind him and does not care if Israel becomes a pariah or hated state because of these wars, as much as he cares about achieving his personal and strategic goals.

Israel believes that the strategy of open wars may achieve security control and operational control for it, but in the long run, in my opinion, it may become ineffective, and Israel will be forced to end them sooner or later through agreements, but these agreements may not achieve everything Israel wants. I believe it is now in Israel's interest to end these wars and close them at this stage with real peace agreements that end the long cycles of conflict with Palestinians and non-Palestinians, because keeping them open means they turn into wars of attrition that keep the conflict active, and wars that Israel may often not control. At the same time, keeping these wars open means exhausting Israeli human, material, and economic power, in addition to Israel's political loss in the eyes of global public opinion, which knows and realizes that Israel does not want to achieve comprehensive peace and does not want to provide an opportunity for others to live in peace, and that it has missed many opportunities and unilaterally withdrew from the agreements it signed with the Palestinians in (Oslo) and wants to resolve the conflict according to its perspective through annexation, settlement, dismantling the Palestinian Authority, and handing over the administration of Palestinian areas to local bodies, and at the same time achieving individual peace with regional countries without recognizing the political identity of Palestinians or recognizing their right to self-determination and establishing their state, as if it is turning the conflict back to square zero, and this, of course, does not achieve the security it claims to seek, and thus does not achieve the desired long-term stability that brings peace and prosperity to peoples and enables them to build the future of their citizens while ensuring their progress on all levels.