The American-Israeli confrontation with Iran enters its third month amidst thick fog surrounding the expected outcomes of this conflict. The state of 'neither war nor peace' emerges as a temporarily comfortable option for those who have suffered the ravages of fighting, yet it carries strategic risks for those who read beyond the current moment.
Analytical readings indicate that this state of stalemate may continue for an unknown period, as the current truce is considered merely a fleeting stop. The war has not actually stopped, but has taken multiple forms and facets that go beyond missiles and drones to include complex economic and political dimensions.
The current phase can be described as a retreat from all-out war with an absence of will to initiate a genuine peace process. It appears that the warring parties have not yet overcome the power complex; they do not wish to return to armed conflict, but at the same time, they are not rushing back to the negotiating table.
This gray situation may be worse than a short-term real war, especially since some conflicts are not intended for quick resolution. There are wars that serve the interests of their parties despite their high cost, and fulfill the ambitions of international powers that content themselves with remote observation and achieving geopolitical gains.
For decades, the relationship between Tehran on one hand, and Washington and Tel Aviv on the other, has been characterized as a continuous war without official declaration. This confrontation has included suffocating economic sanctions and indirect clashes, with intensive use of armed groups, hybrid strikes, and targeted assassinations.
Each party adhered to certain limits of escalation for many years, with the most prominent theme being the avoidance of bloody war while continuing maximum pressure. The assassinations of Iranian scientists and the targeting of prominent military leaders constituted harsh tests of endurance without sliding into an all-out confrontation.
However, the events of June 2025 bared their fangs and broke the cycle of silent war that had long prevailed. Benjamin Netanyahu sought to bolster his political standing with new victories, while Donald Trump desired to achieve personal glory that would satisfy the aspirations of his supporting forces in the United States.
These ambitions led to the outbreak of the twelve-day war, which in turn paved the way for the recent seven-week war that ended without a definitive resolution. Today, the scene is repeated on the ruins of those confrontations, where everyone refuses to declare an official end to the war to save face and claim victory.
Each party holds leverage that convinces them of their ability to break the other's will in the end. While Iran bets on global economic repercussions that the American administration will not withstand, Washington believes that Tehran is on the verge of collapse under the weight of the naval and economic blockade.
The bitter truth is that the entire world will pay the price for this intransigence, as the exorbitant bill will affect both near and distant countries. This war is characterized by the United States fighting it with all its might by proxy for Israel, and with objectives that seem vague and constantly changing.
The real danger lies in the fact that this confrontation is not just a clash between states, but a chapter in the reshaping of the Middle East. This major process may take decades before it settles on entirely new maps and alliances that end the current era.
Ultimately, we are facing a long-term conflict aimed at changing the international balance of power and the ways of managing relations in the region. The current truce will remain merely a warrior's rest in a grand game aimed at redrawing the world's features, making what comes next more complex than what has passed.
We are in a logic that can be described as 'the war stopped but it did not end,' where both parties retreated from an all-out confrontation without engaging in a serious peace process.
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The Truce and War Dilemma: Has the Middle East Entered a Tunnel of Sustained Conflict?