Israeli Professor Eyal Zisser expressed his strong criticism of the ceasefire decision that temporarily ended the 'Lion's Roar' operation, noting widespread dissatisfaction within Israeli occupation circles and some circles in the United States. Zisser explained that expectations of the collapse of the Iranian regime were not met, as Tehran continued to launch missile barrages, with intelligence indicators confirming its possession of an arsenal sufficient to continue fighting for several additional weeks.
The Israeli analyst considered that the Iranian leadership quickly used the calm to declare 'victory,' acting from a position of strength and initiative in managing the pace of negotiations with Washington. He also pointed out that Tehran began to brandish the card of closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with what he described as its success in imposing a ceasefire equation on the Lebanese front, which enhances its regional influence in various arenas.
The article published in 'Israel Hayom' newspaper indicated that the absence of accurate information and images showing the actual extent of destruction within Iranian territory, along with the continued internet blackout policy, enabled the regime to market the confrontation as a strategic achievement. Zisser believes that this behavior mimics Hezbollah's approach in Lebanon, which, with Iranian support, was able to impose tangible restrictions on the military capabilities of the occupation compared to the situation before the outbreak of the confrontation.
In his reading of the internal scene, the Israeli academic explained that the 'survival means victory' equation is the primary driver of the celebrations in the streets of Tehran, despite the bitter economic reality the country is experiencing. He affirmed that this propaganda attempts to cover up a state that is effectively on the brink of collapse, after a year of unprecedented unrest and protests that shook the foundations of the ruling regime's stability.
The analysis touched upon shocking economic figures, where the Iranian rial lost about 90% of its original value, leading to huge jumps in inflation rates and the erosion of citizens' purchasing power. Sources indicated that millions of Iranians are now living below the extreme poverty line, with the average monthly income per individual not exceeding $120, amid suffocating living crises including water shortages and prolonged power outages.
Zisser concluded his analysis by noting that the Iranian regime allocates a quarter of the state budget to nuclear programs, developing its missile arsenal, and funding military proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon at the expense of the people's basic needs. He warned that any potential agreement that US President Trump might conclude at this stage could be a 'lifeline' for the regime, especially with reports indicating that the losses incurred by the US military in the region may be much greater than officially disclosed.
The most dangerous thing that could happen at this stage is for Trump to contribute to saving the Iranian regime through a potential agreement.
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Israeli Academic: Ceasefire Gives Tehran a Chance to Survive Collapse